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... Why It Matters

The latest data suggests Trump faces a paradox. While Republican voters remain his strongest source of support, they are also growing increasingly pessimistic about the country's trajectory. If that mood deepens, it could sap enthusiasm heading into 2026.
Satisfaction Hits a New Low

A September Verasight poll found that only 28 percent of adults believe the U.S. is "on the right track," compared to 60 percent who say it's "off on the wrong track." Another 12 percent said they were unsure. That marks a sharp drop from August, when the split was 33 percent to 57 percent.

The downward trend is confirmed by other surveys. Gallup found that just 29 percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., the lowest level since Trump took office in January. That's down from 31"33 percent over the summer and well below the 38 percent peak in May.

It comes as satisfaction had been trending upward after Trump's inauguration, buoyed by Republican optimism. The latest drop, however, suggests that confidence within his party is beginning to fray.

Cracks in the GOP Base

The Gallup data shows the sharpest declines among Republicans, with satisfaction falling to 68 percent in September, from 76 percent in August. Independents (23 percent) and Democrats (1 percent) remain flat.

Other surveys reinforce the trend. According to AP-NORC, the share of Republicans saying the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction has surged from 29 percent in June to 51 percent in September. Among Republicans under 45, that number leapt by 30 points to 61 percent.

These polls come after the September 10 assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, an event that appears to have rattled Republicans and accelerated doubts about the country's trajectory. ...