Saturday, January 24, 2026

The Main Driver of Trump’s Bad Polling

A conservative strategist on why Trump's support is sinking among key groups and what it means for the future of his coalition.

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More from the article...

... It's been a bad stretch of polling for President Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, a string of new polls has found Trump losing ground with key constituencies, especially the young, non-white and low-propensity voters who swung decisively in his direction in 2024.

The uptick in support for Trump among those non-traditional Republican voters helped fuel chatter of an enduring "realignment" in the American electorate -- but the durability of that realignment is now coming into doubt with those same groups cooling on Trump.

Surveying the findings of the most recent New York Times-Siena poll, polling analyst Nate Cohn bluntly declared that "the second Trump coalition has unraveled."

Is it time to touch up the obituaries for the Trumpian realignment? To find out, I spoke with conservative pollster and strategist Patrick Ruffini, whose 2024 book "Party of the People" was widely credited with predicting the contours of Trump's electoral realignment.

Ruffini cautioned against prematurely eulogizing the GOP's new coalition, noting that the erosion of support has so far not extended to the constituencies that have served as the primary drivers of the Trumpian realignment -- particularly white working-class voters and working-class Latinos and Asian Americans.

But he also acknowledged that the findings of the recent polls should raise alarms for Republicans ahead of 2026 and especially 2028. ...


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-01-24 02:38 PM

Trump has 9 months left to sue, terrorize and kill Americans into submission.

#2 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-01-24 02:40 PM

The Main Driver of Trump's Bad Polling

Inflation and costs. Just like it did in the Dems in 2024.

Democrats join 2024's graveyard of incumbents
The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters.This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records.
Nov 6 2024
www.ft.com

#3 | Posted by censored at 2026-01-24 02:52 PM

@#3 ... Inflation and costs. ...

... including healthcare costs.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-01-24 03:11 PM

Tariffs and saying F-u to Affordable Care Act are self-inflicted wounds. Along with demonizing brown people.

#5 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2026-01-24 04:49 PM

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