Meanwhile every day brings danger of a world wide economic crash. It cannot be understated the damage that stopping that flow for a few weeks can cause. Nations entire economies rely on it. China relies on it. BTW we are pulling military assets out of S. Korea to protect the gulf. Will China see that as an opportunity? Who knows!

Oh and the Kurds have given Trump a big Fuck You to being the ground meat in a land assault. So the whole concept of a civil war blooming in Iran becomes a pipe dream.

Trump seems to be relying on a sustained bombing campaign and then declaring victory. But, really, seriously a bombing campaign achieves nothing. It would take a year to turn Iran into the Gaza strip.

So, you see, there is a major flaw in that argument of Trump declaring victory and moving on. Israel and Iran have a say in the matter. Israel could PROBABLY be convinced to stop, but what will force Iran to the table? Israel wants to bring the Iranian government to collapse to turn Iran into Iraq circa 2004. THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. But will a psycho like Netanyahu be convinced. Oh yeah, Trump gave Israel 20,000 1K pound bombs last week. That is enough ordnance for Israel for like 30 to 45 days of bombing. A campaign that long would destroy the oil market.

And, you might not get this, but Iran probably thinks they are winning. Of course they are taking a beating, but that is not how THEY measure victory. They define victory by the damage they are able to impact on the oil "pipeline", which is getting more severe every day. And every day the ability for the gulf states to defend against incoming missiles and drones is getting smaller and smaller.

So, yeah, I don't see any way for Trump to win this. There is a very good chance he will have to crawl to Iran to beg for them to stop.

BTW a true ground invasion is probably the logical end point for Trump's "plans". But a ground invasion is well and truly a non-starter.

America simply does not have the number of troops for a true invasion. Not a special forces snatch and grab operation of the nuclear material say, but a ground invasion to truly overthrow the Iranian regime, ala Iraq.

But, you see Iran isn't Iraq.

First, Iran is HUGE and mountainous

Second, we have zero allies who will put substantial boots on the ground.

Third, access to Iran is only through hostile nations i.e. Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, Afghanistan and we can't air lift 1,000,000 troops.

Fourth, Trump is a coward.

There are other reasons

But, my friends, this is where it gets scary

We have tactical nuclear weapons. I can envision Trump choosing that option over admitting a loss.

Not saying it is likely, but Trump wants to be a historical figure and all.

I can see Netanyahu whispering that is his ear.

Another consideration is that Iran is sending it's older missiles and drones to deplete the gulf state's interceptors.

Iran has hit a number of America's billion dollar radar installations.

As the war goes on Iran will be able to send more and more destructive missiles and drones with less and less defensive capabilities.

Detailed article describing the success Iran has had against our defensive installations

Do not measure the success of the Iran war based on casualty count. It is not that type of war, yet. Plus the US is probably lying about casualties.

The measure is in interceptors and infrastructure (esp. oil).

Iran escalates attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure
By Victoria Gatenby
Reporting from Doha, Qatar

Concern is growing across the Gulf as Iran escalates attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

There was an attack on fuel tanks in Bahrain in the past few hours, while on Wednesday, drone strikes targeted fuel tanks in the Omani port city of Salalah. Also on Wednesday, a cargo ship was targeted by the Iranians in the Strait of Hormuz. Three sailors remain missing, while 20 were rescued by the Omani coast guard.

Now, the timing of that incident was interesting.

It came shortly after Trump warned Iran against targeting ships in the strait or laying mines.

The Iranians said they targeted the Thai flagged vessel because it had been ignoring their orders. They said all ships have to seek their permission to transit the strait and warned that the US and their allies will not be allowed to pass through that very narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow.