Trump is left with very few cards to play. He can double down on blowing stuff up, but that will achieve nothing but a mounting number of civilian casualties.

There are only so many military targets to blow up. Look at this video

Meanwhile every day brings danger of a world wide economic crash. It cannot be understated the damage that stopping that flow for a few weeks can cause. Nations entire economies rely on it. China relies on it. BTW we are pulling military assets out of S. Korea to protect the gulf. Will China see that as an opportunity? Who knows!

Oh and the Kurds have given Trump a big ---- You to being the ground meat in a land assault. So the whole concept of a civil war blooming in Iran becomes a pipe dream.

Trump seems to be relying on a sustained bombing campaign and then declaring victory. But, really, seriously a bombing campaign achieves nothing. It would take a year to turn Iran into the Gaza strip.

So, you see, there is a major flaw in that argument of Trump declaring victory and moving on. Israel and Iran have a say in the matter. Israel could PROBABLY be convinced to stop, but what will force Iran to the table? Israel wants to bring the Iranian government to collapse to turn Iran into Iraq circa 2004. THAT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. But will a psycho like Netanyahu be convinced. Oh yeah, Trump gave Israel 20,000 1K pound bombs last week. That is enough ordnance for Israel for like 30 to 45 days of bombing. A campaign that long would destroy the oil market.

And, you might not get this, but Iran probably thinks they are winning. Of course they are taking a beating, but that is not how THEY measure victory. They define victory by the damage they are able to impact on the oil "pipeline", which is getting more severe every day. And every day the ability for the gulf states to defend against incoming missiles and drones is getting smaller and smaller.

So, yeah, I don't see any way for Trump to win this. There is a very good chance he will have to crawl to Iran to beg for them to stop.

BTW a true ground invasion is probably the logical end point for Trump's "plans". But a ground invasion is well and truly a non-starter.

America simply does not have the number of troops for a true invasion. Not a special forces snatch and grab operation of the nuclear material say, but a ground invasion to truly overthrow the Iranian regime, ala Iraq.

But, you see Iran isn't Iraq.

First, Iran is HUGE and mountainous

Second, we have zero allies who will put substantial boots on the ground.

Third, access to Iran is only through hostile nations i.e. Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, Afghanistan and we can't air lift 1,000,000 troops.

Fourth, Trump is a coward.

There are other reasons

But, my friends, this is where it gets scary

We have tactical nuclear weapons. I can envision Trump choosing that option over admitting a loss.

Not saying it is likely, but Trump wants to be a historical figure and all.

I can see Netanyahu whispering that is his ear.

Another consideration is that Iran is sending it's older missiles and drones to deplete the gulf state's interceptors.

Iran has hit a number of America's billion dollar radar installations.

As the war goes on Iran will be able to send more and more destructive missiles and drones with less and less defensive capabilities.

Detailed article describing the success Iran has had against our defensive installations

Do not measure the success of the Iran war based on casualty count. It is not that type of war, yet. Plus the US is probably lying about casualties.

The measure is in interceptors and infrastructure (esp. oil).

Iran escalates attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure
By Victoria Gatenby
Reporting from Doha, Qatar

Concern is growing across the Gulf as Iran escalates attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

There was an attack on fuel tanks in Bahrain in the past few hours, while on Wednesday, drone strikes targeted fuel tanks in the Omani port city of Salalah. Also on Wednesday, a cargo ship was targeted by the Iranians in the Strait of Hormuz. Three sailors remain missing, while 20 were rescued by the Omani coast guard.

Now, the timing of that incident was interesting.

It came shortly after Trump warned Iran against targeting ships in the strait or laying mines.

The Iranians said they targeted the Thai flagged vessel because it had been ignoring their orders. They said all ships have to seek their permission to transit the strait and warned that the US and their allies will not be allowed to pass through that very narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow.

The world is in the edge of an economic abyss.

If you want to gauge how the war is going follow the attacks on the oil "pipeline".

Iran is daily becoming more and more successful

Watch out for the increase in attacks on oil fields ports depots and shipping. Look for reports of mining.

America has very little capacity to counter this.

It would be stupid to escort ships through the area. That would greatly reduce destroyers freedom of movement opening them up to drone and small vessels attacks. Plus those ships are needed to protect the carriers from missile attack

It is truly amazing how quickly this war is going south.

This could be a disaster by next week

For those deadenders, I have a question.

Would a country getting their ass kicked issue a set of demands for the surrender of the other country? Maybe, but really??

For those who are unaware, Iranian drone, missile and targeting ability/capacity has come to a huge shock to the US military.

And we have reports that Iran tried/is trying to hit the continental US with drones.

As a caveat, this is coming from the Trump administration so take it with a truckload of salt.

Are there Iranian cargo ships out there with drones?

Maybe that is fear mongering by the Trump administration.

Maybe not

If Iran sees the war going against them, will they launch drones at the US? It would not take much to cause a major panic

Yet another consideration

America has invested trillions in the gulf state both in military bases and in the defenses of these countries.

America is basically hanging these countries out to dry.

Our limited ability to provide interceptors is going to Israel.

Iran is targeting them, because of our presence there.

The long term impact will possibly be the Gulf States looking elsewhere for security guarantees, perhaps even reproachment with Iran.

Global markets are withdrawing investment from the gulf states and the US and is far less likely to return.

That Qatari jet did not get them much.

Apparently Israel is taking a beating. Israel has put a full media blackout on the country, but videos smuggled out are showing numerous successful hits.

Iran retaliated against Israeli's oil port at Haifa following Israel's attack that spread oil over Tehran.

Iran has supersonic missiles that interceptors can't hit.

General Caine said Iran is evolving quickly and are targeting radar and interceptor network. That would be degrading our defensive capabilities

Apparently, Iran or their Iraqi proxies shot down an American refueling plane. CENTCOM issued an obvious lie about it.

I personally, have strong suspicions about casualty reporting from our administration. If you recall, during the Iraq war, the pentagon put out daily death and wounding numbers. We are getting nothing of the sort except one report of 150 wounded soldiers. Given the rate of operations that is absurd.

Iran has successfully shut down Iraq and Oman's ports. that is really bad news as these things don't just restart quickly.

The one obvious winner in all of this is Putin's Russia with higher oil prices, lifting of sanctions and putting him in the driver seat as to providing oil to Europe.

Oh, and btw, Lebanon hasn't been getting near enough attention, 750,000 people displace hundreds dead, Israeli invasion. That alone will have world wide ramifications due to migrants fleeing the warzone.

My personal opinion is Iran is winning decisively.

Don't listen to the media or our government or most pundits who are afraid to reach that obvious conclusion for a variety of reasons.

Meanwhile our president is dancing to YMCA and screeching against a Republican congressional candidate

Oh and oil up to $100/barrel

Oh and Hegseth is firing even MORE JAG officers. Cause who wants accountability when committing massive war crimes

The US Navy cannot dock in their Gulf naval base. Iran hit it hard so we need to travel to India and/or Diego Garcia

Keep in mind that once a ship uses it's interceptors it needs a dock/crane to reload which means they have to go days to India or DG to reload and then days back to the Theater of Operations

WRT to Israel interceptors, apparently Iran knocked out a radar in Qatar that was critical to notifying Israel of incoming missiles. This reduces Israel's warning to about 90 seconds without the direction data necessary for local radar to lock on.

So very minimal time to react and no basic incoming data.

Iran has destroyed a few other THAAD radars too

30% of our THAAD radars in our entire inventory destroyed

Satellite communication center destroyed

Iran's hypersonic missiles are maneuverable which defeats any interceptor because the interception relies on a standard ballistic parabola

the iron dome interceptors are far less effective and completely ineffective vs hypersonic

FWIW Iran is only responding inkind to infrastructure attacks

IE Iran only attacked Israel's refinery after Israel attacked Iran's refinery

The Israeli refinery hit supplies half of the nations fuel including air fuel

30% of the world's UREA/fertilizer comes through the strait of Hormuz.

That means famine is on the horizon due to projected massive reductions in crop growth

I can't speak to naval armaments vis a vis missiles. There may be a precision issue on a moving target, plus inclose defense systems that can knock out a missile. Maybe Iran is holding off on that so far, maybe our navy isn't positioned in a vulnerable location. I did see a drone vid of our carrier not sure if it was real or not. I also suspect that the Gerald Ford might have been hit even by splash damage as Centcom reported 2 injured sailors in a "laundry fire" Sounds ridiculous that something like that would warrant a full press release. The release even said the propulsion wasn't effected Like why would they report that for a small laundry fire? Plus this administration lies about everything. Iran has claimed hits on ships, but the lie too

Piggy has been reaching out to Iran for a ceasefire

Think about that

Piggy starts a war and within 13 days is begging for a ceasefire

America killing the Ayatollah is far bigger than people realize

He was not just their civil leader he is the 2nd highest religious person in Shia. Its like killing the President and NYC Cardinal

Iran is pissed

And America is leading a religious crusade. Semi-officially from Hegseth on down are christian nationalists.

FWIW I do actually think it highly unlikely that the Ford got hit, that would be world shaking. Might have been a landing accident that they don't want to admit to.

Again, just an odd release

BTW Israel has nukes, their population centers are the target of many numerous missiles.

They would not shirk at using nukes. Consider that they don't have qualms about committing a genocide. What would stop them if their cities are being turned to rubble by missiles?

Israel is demanding southern Lebanon be evacuated

This is like what they did in Gaza. Israel is planning on occupying the region permanently in another land grab

The United States has put out a reward for the killing of Iran's legitimate ruler

Iran has successfully hacked a US medical supply company

At a whisper at potential future boots on ground 2200 marines are redeploying to the Middle East

Iran has increased it's export of oil, so yeah

The trump administration is not reporting casualties.

That is unacceptable