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... For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia.
Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago -- a part of Norway with an unusual legal status -- to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense.
Allies suspect Russia of probing crucial undersea cables in the waters off Svalbard and staging military-style events that test the limits of the rules governing its presence there. As Russia ramps up hybrid attacks across Europe, Oslo is racing to boost its naval and surveillance capabilities to protect its northern flank, while local authorities on Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure -- and even have an evacuation plan in place.
"There is more tension in the Arctic and in the north, and of course also Svalbard is a part of that," Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik told POLITICO. "We know that Russia ... uses a lot of ways to try to provoke or find ways to do hybrid threats."
Despite its status as Norwegian territory, the archipelago's main island, Spitsbergen, is home to a Russian town.
For decades, Moscow and Oslo have largely kept tensions from boiling over -- but that delicate balance is now under growing strain. Western countries are increasingly worried about Russian hybrid attacks in Europe and warn that Moscow could attempt a limited incursion against a NATO member by the end of the decade.
"Russian leadership is highly unpredictable and more and more risk prone," said Kari Aga Myklebost, a Russian history professor and Svalbard expert at Norway's Arctic University. "I wouldn't close out any scenario when it comes to the Kremlin's will to confront NATO." ...
