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Crash Clock Ticks, as Satellite Congestion Worsens
Earth's orbit is starting to look like an LA freeway ...
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LampLighter
Joined 2013/04/13Visited 2025/12/15
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The CRASH Clock is ticking as satellite congestion in low Earth orbit worsens[image or embed] -- The Register (@theregister.com) Dec 12, 2025 at 9:33 AM
The CRASH Clock is ticking as satellite congestion in low Earth orbit worsens[image or embed]
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More from the article ...
... The CRASH (Collision Realization And Significant Harm) Clock is a proposed Key Environmental Indicator (KEI) to give an estimate of how long it would take before a catastrophic collision occurs if collision avoidance maneuvers cease or there is a loss of situation awareness. The clock is currently 2.8 days, which doesn't sound too bad until you consider that in 2018, before the mega-constellation launches got underway (yes, Starlink, we're looking at you), the CRASH Clock was 121 days. Professor Sam Lawler explained the origin of the acronym in a post on Mastodon: "We needed a metric. I originally wanted to do something like 'Kessler Countdown' or 'Kessler Clock' but this isn't a countdown to Kessler Syndrome, it's just showing how bad things are in orbit, and how quickly they could get worse. So, our name for this metric is... Collision Realization And Significant Harm: the CRASH Clock!" Kessler Syndrome is a theoretical scenario where collisions in orbit result in an exponentially increasing amount of debris, effectively rendering some orbital regions unusable. As Lawler noted, the CRASH Clock is more about highlighting how crowded orbit is becoming and how quickly it could get worse in the event of something like a major solar storm or a software issue knocking out collision avoidance systems. ...
The clock is currently 2.8 days, which doesn't sound too bad until you consider that in 2018, before the mega-constellation launches got underway (yes, Starlink, we're looking at you), the CRASH Clock was 121 days.
Professor Sam Lawler explained the origin of the acronym in a post on Mastodon: "We needed a metric. I originally wanted to do something like 'Kessler Countdown' or 'Kessler Clock' but this isn't a countdown to Kessler Syndrome, it's just showing how bad things are in orbit, and how quickly they could get worse. So, our name for this metric is... Collision Realization And Significant Harm: the CRASH Clock!"
Kessler Syndrome is a theoretical scenario where collisions in orbit result in an exponentially increasing amount of debris, effectively rendering some orbital regions unusable. As Lawler noted, the CRASH Clock is more about highlighting how crowded orbit is becoming and how quickly it could get worse in the event of something like a major solar storm or a software issue knocking out collision avoidance systems. ...
#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-12-13 12:04 AM | Reply
Interesting view ...
satellitemap.space
#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-12-13 12:05 AM | Reply
Yawn.
#3 | Posted by visitor_ at 2025-12-15 01:33 AM | Reply
okay... and then what?
#4 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2025-12-15 01:39 AM | Reply
I remember when Sputnik was a big deal... watching new satellites in the night sky...
#5 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2025-12-15 01:43 AM | Reply
@#4 ... okay... and then what? ...
That's an excellent question.
What happens when satellite debris starts crashing on to houses?
NASA says it expected space station garbage to burn up. The debris smashed into a Florida home instead (2024) www.cnn.com
That's a part of the "then what."
A likely occurrence?
I hope not.
But, then, Hurricane Katrina was also not a likely occurrence.
So, at this point I have to ask, are you a betting person?
If so, what odds are you comfortable with?
:)
#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-12-15 02:06 AM | Reply
Everyone within 500 miles will see their insurance rates go up to cover the risk.
#7 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-12-15 02:09 AM | Reply
@#7 ... Everyone within 500 miles ...
In one respect I agree... yeah, insurance rates may increases due to objects falling out of the sky
But the "within 500 miles" aspect is what I disagree with.
I remain to be convinced that the location of such a grounding of debris is an indication of where a similar event might occur.
#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-12-15 03:02 AM | Reply
That's fair, it was just a random number I picked. Starship launch debris is more predictable than random reentry debris.
#9 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-12-15 03:22 AM | Reply
Gee, you would think that there is no one in charge of satellite near earth orbits... And there isn't.
#10 | Posted by Hughmass at 2025-12-15 07:31 AM | Reply
"Captain, the thermosphere of this planet is littered with metallic debris. It appears they sent so many satellites into orbit that a chain reaction was inevitable. There's no way any space craft can leave or land."
"The fools."
#11 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2025-12-15 01:34 PM | Reply
L.A. freeways. Really? When the I-95 is a fucking parking lot and Atlanta is a disaster. Fuck you.
#12 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-12-15 11:29 PM | Reply
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