Tracing the US Military's Learning Curve on Fighting Iran's Drones
www.military.com

... The Iran war quickly tested America's ability to combat the swarms of cheap drones that have become a staple of the modern battlefield after Ukraine and Russia demonstrated how effective they could be.

The Islamic Republic launched so many drones across the region at once that some slipped through the defenses, including a strike that killed six U.S. soldiers at an operations center in Kuwait.

Experts and defense leaders stress that the U.S. military has been able to shoot down the majority of Iran's drones and take out much of its drone capabilities. But critics said too often missiles that cost millions of dollars were used to down small drones that cost tens of thousands.

The U.S. is bringing an anti-drone system to the Middle East that has been tested in Ukraine, which had proposed a deal with the U.S. last year to offer its drone expertise. Such an agreement is yet to be made, and American forces are facing a steep learning curve as they scramble to deploy more cost-efficient defenses against Iran's Shahed drones, which fly low and buzz like mopeds before smashing into their targets. ...

Here's what to know about Iran's drones and efforts by the U.S. to shoot them down: ...

Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
www.dw.com

...The math of the Iran war

Since the beginning of the conflict, the US, Israel, and Iran have unleashed a barrage of strikes across the region. According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US hit more than 3,000 targets in Iran in the first seven days.

In return, Iran has launched thousands of Shahed-136 drones and hundreds of missiles at US targets across the region.

This is where the math gets uncomfortable.

Iran's Shahed drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000 (about 43,000) to produce. There are various ways the US and allies have been defending against them, but none are cheap. Fighter jets armed with AIM-9 missiles are $450,000 a shot, plus the $40,000 per hour just to operate the plane.

"The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed," said Grieco, "It's not efficient. It's not a favorable cost exchange."

She argued the US should have learned from Ukraine, which has found cheaper methods, such as interceptor drones that cost less than the Shaheds. "The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn't purchased it in sufficient numbers," said Grieco.

The far more expensive Patriot defense missiles (costing around $3 million per missile) are reserved for intercepting Iran's ballistic missiles, and it is here that concerns about stockpiles arise. Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, estimates that stocks are being used up fast.

"At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots and I think we've chewed into that inventory quite a bit now," he said. He estimated that 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used.

High-grade weapons like this take time to build. Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in all of 2025. "If you went to the company today and said I want to buy one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for that Patriot to show up," said Cancian.

For shorter-range weapons such as bombs, JDAM kits and Hellfire missiles the picture is different. "Militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time. You know, we have the ground munitions to do that," said Cancian. ...

[see the article for a map of strikes]