It’s Black Voters, Stupid. And Thank God for That.
The lessons of Michigan and Wisconsin.
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A_Friend
Joined 2005/09/21Visited 2026/08/12
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snip ...
If you missed Jasmine's Triad last week, go back and give it a read. It's so good. Her thesis is that while "woke" eventually grew into an amorphous oppressive blob-if you like Thanksgiving or don't like bike lanes, then you are read out of the movement!-the original ideas behind "staying woke" are pretty valuable. And also turned out to be . . . right. Here's Jasmine:Maybe at this point you're thinking I'm making a True Woke has never been tried! argument. Not quite. My point is that "wokeness"-in an idealized form-is an argument for guardrails against unrestrained domination by the most powerful forces in society. It was in the calls for an end to extrajudicial police killings. It was in the demands for accountability when influential figures parroted harmful racist remarks. It was in the warnings of how easily civil protections for vulnerable groups-trans people or noncitizen immigrants or pregnant women-could be trampled upon.
Her thesis is that while "woke" eventually grew into an amorphous oppressive blob-if you like Thanksgiving or don't like bike lanes, then you are read out of the movement!-the original ideas behind "staying woke" are pretty valuable. And also turned out to be . . . right. Here's Jasmine:
Maybe at this point you're thinking I'm making a True Woke has never been tried! argument. Not quite. My point is that "wokeness"-in an idealized form-is an argument for guardrails against unrestrained domination by the most powerful forces in society. It was in the calls for an end to extrajudicial police killings. It was in the demands for accountability when influential figures parroted harmful racist remarks. It was in the warnings of how easily civil protections for vulnerable groups-trans people or noncitizen immigrants or pregnant women-could be trampled upon.
Not quite. My point is that "wokeness"-in an idealized form-is an argument for guardrails against unrestrained domination by the most powerful forces in society. It was in the calls for an end to extrajudicial police killings. It was in the demands for accountability when influential figures parroted harmful racist remarks. It was in the warnings of how easily civil protections for vulnerable groups-trans people or noncitizen immigrants or pregnant women-could be trampled upon.
#1 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-08-12 02:44 PM | Reply
The reason I'm picking apart the polling is because between Hong in Wisconsin and El-Sayed in Michigan, we're going to get a narrative about how DSA-branded Democrats always underperform. And the reality is more complicated than that. El-Sayed isn't actually a DSA Democrat. He's a normal Democrat who, for various reasons, codes as DSA-adjacent. Yet he underperformed much more than Hong. El-Sayed's polling average had him up by 13; he won by a point. Francesca Hong is a real-deal DSA-er and she finished within the margin of error of where the polls had her. So, at the broadest possible level, a narrative saying DSA Dems underperform their polls isn't right. But there is a lesson in here and it seems important.
And the reality is more complicated than that.
El-Sayed isn't actually a DSA Democrat. He's a normal Democrat who, for various reasons, codes as DSA-adjacent. Yet he underperformed much more than Hong. El-Sayed's polling average had him up by 13; he won by a point.
Francesca Hong is a real-deal DSA-er and she finished within the margin of error of where the polls had her.
So, at the broadest possible level, a narrative saying DSA Dems underperform their polls isn't right.
But there is a lesson in here and it seems important.
#2 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-08-12 02:47 PM | Reply
The eternal lesson is that African-American voters are the backbone of the Democratic coalition. And African-American voters seem to be less interested in DSA-forward candidates than most other parts of the coalition. Maybe that will change! But until it does, we should keep in mind that to succeed in Democratic primaries, candidates need to do well with African-American voters. Black voters represent the dead-center of the party.
Maybe that will change! But until it does, we should keep in mind that to succeed in Democratic primaries, candidates need to do well with African-American voters.
Black voters represent the dead-center of the party.
#3 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-08-12 02:49 PM | Reply
"The eternal lesson is that African-American voters are the backbone of the Democratic coalition. And African-American voters seem to be less interested in DSA-forward candidates than most other parts of the coalition.
Maybe that will change!"
Or maybe it won't.
The author is frustrated that blacks aren't interested in what the author believes they should be interested in??
This is what frustrates me about folks who try to tell others what to care about.
#4 | Posted by eberly at 2026-08-12 04:08 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3
"The author is frustrated that blacks aren't interested in what the author believes they should be interested in??"
I think it's the other way.
The author is frustrated leftists and liberals aren't interested in the candidates that get the most enthusiastic support from blacks.
Blacks being the core of the Democrat party and all that. According to the author. I couldn't tell you what's the core of the Democratic party. I'm not sure there is one since Obama, who coincidentally is black, retired.
#5 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-08-12 07:03 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1
I don't get a lot of bias in this, seems a pretty straightforward poli-sci analysis. Are black voters "dead center"? Seems to be that way. Are they important in every race (pun acknowledged)? Probably not. But that's what research brings you.
#6 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2026-08-12 08:57 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1
5. One could be forgiven for thinking that, by this point, anti-Trump would be enough to pull folks together under any banner whatsoever. It's not a personality thing anymore.
That women's march in 2017 didn't really slow the train down, did it? Wasn't it a lot bigger than any of the No Kings stuff?
Come to think of it, nothing much is slowing Trump down.
Checks and balances worked better with honest brokers. So much for that.
#7 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-08-13 11:02 AM | Reply
Not is Hasan Piker is the face of the DSA ...
"I don't give a f*** what Black people care about." ~ Hasan Piker
"Let's go back to a better time, when lynchings were happening." ~ Hasan Piker
Blacks being the core of the Democrat party and all that.
But they aren't, Blacks understand the illegal immigrants are the "core". They understand they aren't the receivers of the benefits any longer in the Democrat Party.
Illegal immigration hurts African Americans (2007) law.vanderbilt.edu
Its only gone worse since .. Bernie understood until the he was over run by the illegal immigration crowd.
#8 | Posted by oneironaut at 2026-08-14 11:57 PM | Reply
" Illegal immigration hurts African Americans (2007). Its only gone worse since ... "
Huh? What kind of Math are you using?!?
In April 2007, when this article was published, black unemployment was 8.2%.
Today, it's 6.8%. How is that worse?
#9 | Posted by Danforth at 2026-08-15 01:16 AM | Reply
1Nut Math excludes the FACT that immigration in this country has for decades been a net plus for the US Economy.
"The fiscal picture
Immigrants are a fiscal boon to the U.S. In a new report released by the Cato Institute, the authors update a model created by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to examine the impacts of immigrants on the U.S. government's budget.
Their findings are clear:
In each year from 1994 to 2023, across all levels of government, immigrants paid more in taxes than they received in benefits.
This resulted in a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion in real 2024 U.S. dollars over that period, including savings on interest payments on the national debt."
more:
www.brookings.edu
As pointed out by the Libertarian Cato Inst.
Of course, DJT has managed to turn those numbers around with intimidation and terror tactics, so that this year is projected to be the first in decades that immigrants will NOT be a net plus for the economy.
Thanks, Trumpers!
#10 | Posted by Corky at 2026-08-15 11:22 AM | Reply
The argument is that blacks are harmed by illegal immigrants MORE than another ethnic group.
FTA
"African Americans are losing more jobs to illegal immigrants than to other racial or ethic groups, yet low income black workers don't have political input in the debate."
Now, I don't really care because if it's not illegal immigrants, then another ethnic group is blamed for the continued plight of blacks.....so someone has to shoulder first place in that race.
And what Corky posts is also correct....so get over it is my message.
But it's a slippery slope for the democratic party to have 1 faction being harmed by another faction that democrats rely heavily on both for electoral success.
#11 | Posted by eberly at 2026-08-15 11:55 AM | Reply
"The argument is that blacks are harmed by illegal immigrants MORE than another ethnic group."
Holler back when you're willing to acknowledge that blacks are harmed by illegal immigration crackdowns, more than any other ethnic group.
Exhibit A: "More than 330,000 Haitians lost their Temporary Protected Status (TPS) on July 27, 2026, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that cleared the way for the Trump administration to terminate the program." "an estimated 50,000 U.S.-born children of TPS holders now face the risk of separation if their parents are removed."
Everything harms blacks more. Or when it's things that help, it doesn't help blacks as much. That's because this nation is racist to our economic core. Moreso, with Republicans in power.
#12 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-08-15 12:07 PM | Reply | Funny: 1
But it's a slippery slope for the democratic party to have 1 faction being harmed by another faction that democrats rely heavily on both for electoral success. #11 | POSTED BY EBERLY
This all goes back to my theory on the other thread about oppressed vs oppressor. Without being the oppressed you won't get noticed by the Democrat Elite.
#13 | Posted by oneironaut at 2026-08-15 12:08 PM | Reply
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