Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.
For better or for worse, Biden isn't going anywhere.
"Dem Nom of Biden Could Come as Early as Mid-July" drudge.com
How Donald Trump and Joe Biden Polls Look Four Months Before Election
www.newsweek.com
... With just four months left until the 2024 presidential election, most national polls show Donald Trump slightly ahead of President Joe Biden.
Since Biden's disastrous performance in the June 27 presidential debate, Trump has been pulling ahead slightly in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregator.
The pair have generally been polling neck-and-neck, with typically around a percentage point's difference between them, or less. As of July 1, Trump's average lead is 1.4 percentage points, per the aggregator.
Only one poll since the debate has shown Biden ahead of Trump. But another poll by the same pollster a few days later with a larger sample size showed Trump in the lead.
The Morning Consult poll surveyed 10,679 registered voters between June 28 and 30, and found Trump polling ahead of Biden, 44 percent to 43 percent.
Trump's improvement was marginal, compared with the lead-up to the debate, when they were tied. This suggests that "Biden's alarming debate performance might not have surprised voters as much as it surprised Democrats in Washington," Morning Consult said. ...
This far out from election day, as I have noted before, I look at the polls for trends, not the specific numbers.
Since the debate, the trend in general election polling, though still mostly wallowing in the margin of error, looks to be benefiting fmr Pres Trump.
CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn't the nominee
www.cnn.com
... Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year's presidential campaign.
In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN's national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall. ...
Poll results were released noon today.
Biden Plunges in Swing States
politicalwire.com
... "A confidential polling memo circulating among anxious Democrats is confirming some of their worst fears: President Joe Biden's support has started to tumble in key electoral battlegrounds in the wake of his disastrous debate performance in Atlanta, and Biden's diminished standing is now putting previously noncompetitive states like New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico in play for Donald Trump," Puck reports.
"What's more, Biden has taken such a reputational hit that he is polling behind other alternative Democratic candidates -- including Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer -- in hypothetical one-on-one matchups against Trump."
"The memo was put together after the debate by OpenLabs, a progressive nonprofit that conducts polling and message-testing for a constellation of Democratic groups, ...
Poll results since the debate:
www.realclearpolling.com
...
Poll name --- Dates of polling --- result
Reuters/Ipsos 7/1 - 7/2 Tie
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+6
Harvard-Harris 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+4
Morning Consult 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+1
SurveyUSA 6/28 - 6/28 Trump+2
Data for Progress (D)** 6/28 - 6/28 Trump+3
Morning Consult 6/28 - 6/28 Biden+1
I&I/TIPP 6/26 - 6/28 Biden+2
...
It will be interesting to see some more "fully post-debate" polls come online...
@#18
Speaking of the Supreme Court...
Poll: Confidence in the Supreme Court remains low (June 27, 2024)
apnorc.org
... The public lacks confidence in the Supreme Court generally and their handling of key issues before them. Most believe justices are shaping the law to fit their own ideologies, rather than serving as an independent check for other branches of government. ...
Biden Plunges in Swing States [...]
#14 | Posted by LampLighter
Thanks LampLighter. The findings from that poll are grim.
Graph below:
More deets at: https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dttpiz/biden_plunges_in_swing_states_in_leaked/
Pres Biden needs to change the discussion and continue his campaign. Will he be able to do so?
Well, with headlines like this, it will be an uphill battle...
Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
www.nytimes.com
... The president's conversation is the first indication that he is seriously considering whether he can recover after a devastating performance on the debate stage in Atlanta on Thursday.
The president, who the ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend -- including an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- must go well.
"He knows if he has two more events like that, we're in a different place" by the end of the weekend, said the ally, referring to Mr. Biden's halting and unfocused performance in the debate. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.
Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said the claim was "absolutely false" and that the White House had not been given enough time to respond. ...
Michelle Obama Crushes Donald Trump in Hypothetical Matchup
www.newsweek.com
... But a Reuters/Ispos poll found she was the only top Democrat put before respondents who would trounce Trump in a hypothetical matchup.
The poll found 50 percent of registered voters would vote for Obama if the election were held today, while Trump would get 39 percent of the vote. ...
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