Advertisement

Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.

More

Comments

Admin's note: Participants in this discussion must follow the site's moderation policy. Profanity will be filtered. Abusive conduct is not allowed.

"It's a huge mistake. They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not," Lichtman said during an interview with CNN of calls to replace Biden.

"This is all foolhardy nonsense."

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or "keys."

The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or "keys," to lose the White House.

.

Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performances and concerns over his age.

When pressed about whether the questions surrounding Biden's age and mental acuity are "fundamentally different" than his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down.

"Debate performances can be overcome," he said.

"At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness."

Lichtman has not made his final prediction for who will win the 2024 presidential election."

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 12:33 PM | Reply

So, apparently 538 did a poll in May and 71% of respondents said president should not have criminal immunity for official acts, only 16% said they supported immunity.
I suspect Biden may have reason to thank the SC, it got the debate off the news and makes the case for Biden FAR stronger.
Even magats may balk at having a king

#2 | Posted by truthhurts at 2024-07-02 12:37 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#2

I've been saying you are prolly right... Indies don't really care for criminals, and they really won't like this new Rwing SC ruling making the President a virtual King.

The poor debate performance is nada compared to that... and Trump now trying to use it already to purge his previous convictions.

He just can't wait to use these new powers, and has Plans for their extensive future use.

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 12:46 PM | Reply

... replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election. ...

But what will the cost be of not replacing Pres Biden?


#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 01:02 PM | Reply

For better or for worse, Biden isn't going anywhere.

"Dem Nom of Biden Could Come as Early as Mid-July" drudge.com

#5 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-02 01:14 PM | Reply

He's saying that there is no one with which to replace Biden... no one that could win.

He's got the advantages of an incumbent, and has already beaten the same guy once.

#6 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 01:15 PM | Reply

Ideally, in January of 2023 Biden would have announced his intention to retire after one term.

It would have been a smart decision and would have allowed Joe to leave the office with some dignity.

#7 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-07-02 01:33 PM | Reply

He's saying that there is no one with which to replace Biden... no one that could win.
Maybe, but Trump has his own baggage that might have allowed a non-incumbent to win.

[Biden has] got the advantages of an incumbent
And the disadvantages of late onset dementia which he put on full display to a national audience for about 90 minutes.

and has already beaten the same guy once. #6 | Posted by Corky
Barely, winning the electoral college by 45K-77K votes. And he's running behind in a number of those swing states. All that needs to happen to seal the deal for Hair Furor is for Trump to get over his racism for a few seconds and select some Latino guy as his running-mate and watch those brown votes come trickling in.

Anyhow, in for a dime, in for a dollar.

#8 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-02 01:37 PM | Reply

How Donald Trump and Joe Biden Polls Look Four Months Before Election
www.newsweek.com

... With just four months left until the 2024 presidential election, most national polls show Donald Trump slightly ahead of President Joe Biden.

Since Biden's disastrous performance in the June 27 presidential debate, Trump has been pulling ahead slightly in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregator.

The pair have generally been polling neck-and-neck, with typically around a percentage point's difference between them, or less. As of July 1, Trump's average lead is 1.4 percentage points, per the aggregator.

Only one poll since the debate has shown Biden ahead of Trump. But another poll by the same pollster a few days later with a larger sample size showed Trump in the lead.

The Morning Consult poll surveyed 10,679 registered voters between June 28 and 30, and found Trump polling ahead of Biden, 44 percent to 43 percent.

Trump's improvement was marginal, compared with the lead-up to the debate, when they were tied. This suggests that "Biden's alarming debate performance might not have surprised voters as much as it surprised Democrats in Washington," Morning Consult said. ...


This far out from election day, as I have noted before, I look at the polls for trends, not the specific numbers.

Since the debate, the trend in general election polling, though still mostly wallowing in the margin of error, looks to be benefiting fmr Pres Trump.


#9 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 01:40 PM | Reply

CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn't the nominee
www.cnn.com

... Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year's presidential campaign.

In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN's national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall. ...


Poll results were released noon today.

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 02:02 PM | Reply

Most people respond to polls based on what they've just been told in the Media.

Which is that at this moment Dems are panicking, trying to replace Biden.

Of course, were there an obvious available replacement that poll even as well as Biden, like if B. Obama were available or M. Obama were willing, then that might be might be an option.

Otherwise, who ya got?

Polls are a 'snapshot in time'. Not really all that predictive until they are much closer than they are now to the event.

AND the guy who picked the last 9 of 10 races has a system, and a point.

#11 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 02:09 PM | Reply

@#11 ... Otherwise, who ya got? ...

It's not up to me, it is up to the Democrats. They are the ones facing the difficult decision.

... the guy who picked the last 9 of 10 races has a system, and a point. ...

He's also got a 10% chance of being wrong. Given the circumstances surrounding the November election, I'd ask how he has adapted his system to the current scenario.

As I note in #9...

... This far out from election day, as I have noted before, I look at the polls for trends, not the specific numbers. ...

I also noted in that comment that the current polls still seem to be wallowing in the margin of error.

Will Pres Biden be able to turn the trend around? Or will it, as trends sometimes do, feed upon itself?

Time will tell.

#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 02:39 PM | Reply

Otherwise, who ya got? [...] #11 | Posted by Corky

I'd suggest some reddish-necked white man. Northerners and people with all their teeth usually don't have chance in national elections because of the Southerner's inferiority complex.

Maybe David Duke.

#13 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-02 03:00 PM | Reply

Biden Plunges in Swing States
politicalwire.com

... "A confidential polling memo circulating among anxious Democrats is confirming some of their worst fears: President Joe Biden's support has started to tumble in key electoral battlegrounds in the wake of his disastrous debate performance in Atlanta, and Biden's diminished standing is now putting previously noncompetitive states like New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico in play for Donald Trump," Puck reports.

"What's more, Biden has taken such a reputational hit that he is polling behind other alternative Democratic candidates -- including Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer -- in hypothetical one-on-one matchups against Trump."

"The memo was put together after the debate by OpenLabs, a progressive nonprofit that conducts polling and message-testing for a constellation of Democratic groups, ...



#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 04:59 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

New Poll Finds Biden and Putin's Butt ---- Deadlocked

politicalwire.com

#15 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-07-02 05:02 PM | Reply

from #15

"A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied at 40%, suggesting that Biden has not lost ground since the debate.

Among the names of top Democrats put before respondents, only Michelle Obama outperformed Biden and led Trump 50% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup."

.

lol... I've been touting Michelle (jokingly, as she's said no multiple times) for months now, ever since I heard that Ted Cruz has been shaking in his booties about this for about a year now.

Tied after the Debate... and with the Fallout from the New SC Kingmaker Decision about to hit Indies, who aren't going to like it at all.

#16 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 05:08 PM | Reply

Poll results since the debate:
www.realclearpolling.com

...

Poll name --- Dates of polling --- result

Reuters/Ipsos 7/1 - 7/2 Tie
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+6
Harvard-Harris 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+4
Morning Consult 6/28 - 6/30 Trump+1
SurveyUSA 6/28 - 6/28 Trump+2
Data for Progress (D)** 6/28 - 6/28 Trump+3
Morning Consult 6/28 - 6/28 Biden+1
I&I/TIPP 6/26 - 6/28 Biden+2

...


It will be interesting to see some more "fully post-debate" polls come online...


#17 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 05:15 PM | Reply

And some more "fully post-SC Kingmaker" polls come online.

Indies not normally being as flat out stupid as Trumpers.

#18 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 05:28 PM | Reply

@#18

Speaking of the Supreme Court...

Poll: Confidence in the Supreme Court remains low (June 27, 2024)
apnorc.org

... The public lacks confidence in the Supreme Court generally and their handling of key issues before them. Most believe justices are shaping the law to fit their own ideologies, rather than serving as an independent check for other branches of government. ...


#19 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-02 05:46 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Yes replace Jill Biden the clandestine behind the scenes POTUS operator in her $10,000 white elitist outfit impressing you now on cover of Vogue.

#20 | Posted by Robson at 2024-07-02 08:05 PM | Reply

Robson has a girlfriend, Robson has a girlfriend!!

#21 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-02 08:19 PM | Reply

Biden Plunges in Swing States [...]
#14 | Posted by LampLighter

Thanks LampLighter. The findings from that poll are grim.

Graph below:
biden-plunges-in-swing-states-in-leaked-post-debate-poll-v0-hvftlpshl5ad1-small
More deets at: https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dttpiz/biden_plunges_in_swing_states_in_leaked/

#22 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-02 11:21 PM | Reply

Biden's tenacity to power is due to more than his grandiose ego; his family relies on capitalizing his political power. Without his power, the entire family has nothing. They've lived like this for half a century so of course they're in a panic.

#23 | Posted by look_inward at 2024-07-03 11:28 AM | Reply

Pres Biden needs to change the discussion and continue his campaign. Will he be able to do so?

Well, with headlines like this, it will be an uphill battle...

Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race
www.nytimes.com

... The president's conversation is the first indication that he is seriously considering whether he can recover after a devastating performance on the debate stage in Atlanta on Thursday.

The president, who the ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend -- including an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- must go well.

"He knows if he has two more events like that, we're in a different place" by the end of the weekend, said the ally, referring to Mr. Biden's halting and unfocused performance in the debate. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.

Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said the claim was "absolutely false" and that the White House had not been given enough time to respond. ...



#24 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-03 11:39 AM | Reply

[...] Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race [...] #24 | Posted by LampLighter

Wondering if it might be a good idea for Biden to resign from office while he's at it. Would improve Kamala's chance of winning the presidency as an incumbent going up against former incumbent Trump.

#25 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-03 11:49 AM | Reply

Michelle Obama Crushes Donald Trump in Hypothetical Matchup
www.newsweek.com

... But a Reuters/Ispos poll found she was the only top Democrat put before respondents who would trounce Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

The poll found 50 percent of registered voters would vote for Obama if the election were held today, while Trump would get 39 percent of the vote. ...


#26 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-03 01:12 PM | Reply

Re 26

And she is only 60!

#27 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-07-03 01:34 PM | Reply

I would love to see Michelle replace Biden. She would clean Trump's chronometer.

#28 | Posted by moder8 at 2024-07-03 07:16 PM | Reply

#6

"He's got the advantages of an incumbent, and has already beaten the same guy once."

There were hints. Nothing stuck. Now he's a mental vegetable decomposing right before our very eyes. If you think weekend at Biden's can last another 4 years, you're delusional. That Makes this an election about heels up and Trump. Probably.

#29 | Posted by willowby at 2024-07-03 08:59 PM | Reply

Agree that biden should stay the course: 'Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead'!

Actual quote from Admiral Farragut wa: :"Damn the torpedoes.", said Farragut, "Four bells, Captain Drayton, go ahead. Jouett, full speed."

#30 | Posted by MSgt at 2024-07-03 11:24 PM | Reply

I agree completely.

and to further cement the win...I thoroughly hope that the debate in September

does in fact happen. ( odds are short for it to take place.)

-cement a win for DT, of course

imagine another 2 and 1/2 months of steady decline.

Not even Stephen Hawkins old chair / speaking device would help the brain dead parasite.

#31 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-07-04 09:16 AM | Reply

I would love to see Michelle replace Biden. She would clean Trump's chronometer.

#28 | Posted by moder8
#26 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-03 01:12 PM | Reply | Flag:

Re 26

And she is only 60!

#27 | Posted by donnerboy

well of course you would. It greatly simplifies campaign strategy down to just one line.

--"if you don't vote for michelle...you 'aint black" and you're a misogynistic racists."

that and add the democrat arse sucking media to be the active support in any cover up / lies

deceit and fraud...

--and she won't have to leave her house on an island as she lectures that global warming will

swallow up miles and miles of YOUR coastline....but not hers.

#32 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-07-04 09:23 AM | Reply

Comments are closed for this entry.

Home | Breaking News | Comments | User Blogs | Stats | Back Page | RSS Feed | RSS Spec | DMCA Compliance | Privacy | Copyright 2024 World Readable

Drudge Retort