Monday, August 19, 2024

VP Harris now seems to have a lead...

RCP Average 7/31 - 8/16 --- Harris +1.4

Comments

I remember the brouhaha that was kicked up when fmr Pres Trump had a 1.4% lead in the general polling.

Of course, now that it seems that VP Harris has the 1.4% lead, we'll be hearing how that lead doesn't mean anything.

The odd thing is, I would agree.

It is the Electoral College,and not the general election polling, that matters.

But there does seem to be a trend in place.



#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-08-19 01:37 AM

Any amount of lead gives the Trump campaign the heebie-jeebies. They surrounded him with 5 new high-powered think-tankers and he still broke free. He's a wild thing.

If only there was a doppelganger to be found . . . . ~ LOL

#2 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-08-19 04:23 AM

Add 5-7+ points for Harris if you want to be close to accurate.
Trump is pretty much electorally dead. He's losing North Carolina which will mean curtains for him on election night early.

He's going to lose ALL of the swing states plus NC and a few other red ones.

#3 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-08-19 04:29 AM

MONSON

With Kamala Harris using up all the oxygen in this election, he's having a hard time getting a headline these days

The media follows the action. Trump is a wash, rinse & repeat snoozer.

#4 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-08-19 04:47 AM

Give him books to read and all he does is chew on the covers.

#5 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-08-19 05:03 AM

Kamala Harris is not falling into any of Trump's traps to put her on the defensive.

She's following her own game plan, which is leaving Trump sitting there, sulking, like a political cartoon with a big question mark over his head.

"Duh"

#6 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-08-19 06:08 AM

Harris is running for POTUS.
While Beeg Poosie sulks because he was wasn't simply installed as prom queen.

#7 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2024-08-19 06:25 AM

I love that she stays above the fray, continuing to talk to voters and not falling into the tit-for-tat exchange which would give Dotard life, headlines, and let him know when he's struck a blow; instead her brilliant rapid response team are always on it in the most sarcastic way possible, refuting Dotard's biggest lies and shoving it in his face right there on his own failing platform. It is genius!

#8 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2024-08-19 07:55 AM

Lamp, I have zero disagreement with her leading in the polls currently. But ... As I stated in my NYT article I posted, she needs to be at +6 if past polling for 2016 and 2020 holds true for her to win.

#9 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-08-19 10:26 AM

@#9 ... +6 if past polling for 2016 and 2020 holds true for her to win. ...

I have often said that a ~10% lead in general polling is needed to overcome the Electoral College effects. Currently the polls are still wallowing in the quagmire of margin of error.

I have also said that this far out from Election Day (the polls are still mainly registered voters, and not likely voters), I look to the polls more for trends than outcomes.

And the current trends do not seem to be favoring fmr Pres Trump.

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-08-19 12:13 PM

When asked "Would you seek the repeal of criminal penalties for people apprehended while crossing the border?" Harris answered "Yes"
So open border policy aside, why doesn't she do anything to make housing affordable RIGHT NOW?

#11 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-08-19 02:05 PM

#11

Stupid is as stupid posts... repealing criminal penalties on people escaping poverty and brutality isn't 'open border policy'.

It's more like what's written on our Statue of Liberty... ok, not on your orange one.

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-19 02:17 PM

A poem on the bottom of a statue is not a binding legal contract.

#13 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-08-19 02:49 PM

No, but it's a cultural icon of what America originally meant.

Of course, a Trumper's only icon is his Cult Leader.

#14 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-19 03:11 PM

Fox News describes dotard as a bottom.

x.com

#15 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-08-19 05:02 PM

Anyone that saw that statue on their way to America was heading to a processing center and entering legally. Not breaking the law sneaking across the border.

#16 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-08-19 07:25 PM

"July 2024 data for border crossings showed the lowest level of border crossing since September 2020

As of 2022, unauthorized immigrants made up 3.3% of the U.S. population, though nearly one-third of those immigrants have temporary permission to be in the United States, such as those in Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals."

en.wikipedia.org

As long rwing politicians can fool their idiot followers so thoroughly, we'll always have a Cult of Ignorance and Intolerance powering the stupid in the Republican Party.

#17 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-19 07:35 PM

@#16:
"In the 1800s and early 1900s, laws only limited immigrants with certain individual attributes, rather than all people above a certain annual numerical threshold. An 1875 law banned those suspected of being prostitutes. The 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act barred most new Chinese immigrants. The 1891 Immigration Act barred polygamists, people with contagious diseases, people convicted of crimes "of moral turpitude," and those likely to become a "public charge" by depending on government assistance. A 1903 law barred anarchists and others, including beggars. Still, the vast majority of Europeans who reached the United States were granted entry; the U.S. Immigration Service excluded only 1 percent of the 25 million Europeans who arrived between 1880 and World War I."

October 28, 1886 - Statue of Liberty erected in NY.
In 1903 "The New Colossus Plaque" was placed on the inner wall of the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty.

So if you mean "entering legally" is wide open gates for anyone from Europe you'd be right. Not much work to do. Today you have to be granted an asylum hearing.

If you actually cared about any of this, though, you'd have pushed for the immigration bill the Lankford worked so hard on that gave you everything you've been asking for for years and more. Like more immigration courts and officers.

#18 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-19 07:43 PM

A lot of things have changed since the 1800s. Faster processing and additional rubber stamps are not an improvement. How about raising the standards. We should get some input on who we allow in. After all, they will be living with us. Engineers, doctors etc. How about requiring a 1,000,000 dollar bond or other large contribution to the treasury?

#19 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-08-19 09:28 PM

- How about raising the standards.

Well... you could prolly still post here, even if the standards for being here were raised, and you had to leave.

Russia would maybe take you... right to the Front.

#20 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-19 09:39 PM

A lot of things have changed since the 1800s

And yet you cited that period and then got what happened wrong.

#21 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-19 10:39 PM

No that was just a comment to dismiss your wall of non sequitorium.
What you misinterpreted, 'Faster processing and additional rubber stamps are not an improvement.' Was a dismisal of the mass amnesty fast track to citizenship in the awful immigration bill. Thankfully that was crushed.

#22 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-08-19 11:11 PM

You believe nonsense.
Can't help you with that.
You have the power to deprogram yourself, though.
It takes a choice.
A choice so many are making these days.

#23 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-19 11:26 PM

Do you have any dressing for that word salad?

Something to cover up the smell of desperation, maybe.

#24 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-19 11:26 PM

Speaking of the smell of desperation, gotta say, seeing a trumper creating "sequitorium" was entertaining. Kind of reminded me of "santorum." Unintentional as it was.

#25 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-20 10:46 AM

Trump keeps saying America is in decline. No, you are in decline, DonOLD, mentally, physically and God willing politically.

#26 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-08-20 10:48 AM

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