Normally, this would not be big enough news for us to write a weekend item. However, we had an item yesterday noting that people with advance information were saying the newest jobs report would be so-so. Maybe these people were working from a phony version of the report, like the phony forecast of orange juice futures in the movie Trading Places. In any event, the actual report was fantastic.
"when it gets revised lower I want to read what you two brother duckers have to say about the new number" - #3 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-10-05 04:48 PM
Ah, but by then the election will be over.
"(with data which will inevitably be revised lower after the election)" - #3 | Posted by commnotes at 2024-10-05 04:48 PM
As you point out, by then the election will be over.
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#11 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-10-06 02:49 PM
You still peddling the same lies I destroyed 2 days ago?
Why do you people have to lie incessantly when the truth is readily available?
He is not lying - you guys are talking past each other about different parts of the same BLS report that your link points to.
You simply quoted "headline" numbers from the BLS summary on first page, mostly from the "seasonably adjusted" Establishment Survey - which is what BLS usually tells us.
He quoted a deeper dive into some of both "adjusted" and "unadjusted" numbers in both the Establishment and Household Surveys, shown much further in the report in A-# and B-# tables and also analysis of those numbers - some simple add/subtract math.
As you know, BLS (and other agencies) often revise their previous numbers, for a few months afterwards and then annually - you might remember, recently BLS revised / "adjusted" last year jobs numbers down by whopping 818K (www.nytimes.com - U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier) - or about 28 percent!
This "unadjusted" report clearly shows huge growth in the number of government jobs (well beyond seasonal and expected "return to school" teachers and admins) and not just for September, but all year long, without which the "official" U-3 unemployment number (as flawed as it is) would be up, to 4.5% instead of slightly down to 4.1%.
Even in this report there was an adjustment for July, up by +55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000 - that's almost 62% "error" in estimates from 2 months earlier. Let's just say that current numbers will be revised well down after elections, and generally, all initial estimates from BLS are to be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.
#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-05 12:01 PM
... We tend to think that anyone who says, "Sure, the September report was great, but the October one wasn't, so I just can't vote for Kamala Harris" was never going to vote for her anyhow.
That is very presumptuous - that those who already made up their mind for whom to vote, one way or the other, are going to look at the September (and, if available, October) jobs report, and are going to change their mind - hardly anyone ever makes their voting decisions based on the final, if any at all, jobs reports, and not on their own situation or prospects, i.e. how they feel. And the way many feel now points to 59% - 3 quintiles -experiencing a "vibe-cession":
www.cnbc.com - 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession - CNBC, Aug 12, 2024
3 out of 5 people feel "their economy" is in recession - a so-called "vibe-cession."
"While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren't feeling the benefits..."
Do you think they are going to look at BLS jobs report and feel better / worse based on that? Why do you think the race against someone like Trump still is/feels so tight? There is a saying that "Recession is when your neighbor is laid off. Depression is when you are laid off."
Fortunately, Kamala moved on from "Bidenomics" but the polls are far from encouraging, especially considering large contingent of "shy" Trump voters who either don't respond to polls or outright lie.
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#11 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-10-06 02:49 PM
You still peddling the same lies I destroyed 2 days ago?
Why do you people have to lie incessantly when the truth is readily available?
He is not lying - you guys are talking past each other about different parts of the same BLS report that your link points to.
You simply quoted "headline" numbers from the BLS summary on first page, mostly from the "seasonably adjusted" Establishment Survey - which is what BLS usually tells us.
He quoted a deeper dive into some of both "adjusted" and "unadjusted" numbers in both the Establishment and Household Surveys, shown much further in the report in A-# and B-# tables and also analysis of those numbers - some simple add/subtract math.
As you know, BLS (and other agencies) often revise their previous numbers, for a few months afterwards and then annually - you might remember, recently BLS revised / "adjusted" last year jobs numbers down by whopping 818K (www.nytimes.com - U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier) - or about 28 percent!
This "unadjusted" report clearly shows huge growth in the number of government jobs (well beyond seasonal and expected "return to school" teachers and admins) and not just for September, but all year long, without which the "official" U-3 unemployment number (as flawed as it is) would be up, to 4.5% instead of slightly down to 4.1%.
Even in this report there was an adjustment for July, up by +55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000 - that's almost 62% "error" in estimates from 2 months earlier. Let's just say that current numbers will be revised well down after elections, and generally, all initial estimates from BLS are to be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.
#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-05 12:01 PM
... We tend to think that anyone who says, "Sure, the September report was great, but the October one wasn't, so I just can't vote for Kamala Harris" was never going to vote for her anyhow.
That is very presumptuous - that those who already made up their mind for whom to vote, one way or the other, are going to look at the September (and, if available, October) jobs report, and are going to change their mind - hardly anyone ever makes their voting decisions based on the final, if any at all, jobs reports, and not on their own situation or prospects, i.e. how they feel. And the way many feel now points to 59% - 3 quintiles -experiencing a "vibe-cession":
www.cnbc.com - 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession - CNBC, Aug 12, 2024
3 out of 5 people feel "their economy" is in recession - a so-called "vibe-cession."
"While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren't feeling the benefits..."
Do you think they are going to look at BLS jobs report and feel better / worse based on that? Why do you think the race against someone like Trump still is/feels so tight? There is a saying that "Recession is when your neighbor is laid off. Depression is when you are laid off."
Fortunately, Kamala moved on from "Bidenomics" but the polls are far from encouraging, especially considering large contingent of "shy" Trump voters who either don't respond to polls or outright lie.
__________
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