That's cool, now explain the swing state polling.
#2 | Posted by Bluewaffles

Swing states are where the rightwing/red wave polling is the worst:

[I]t is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll --the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose--to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the "toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy" of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages--and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.

Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages. The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since August 31st of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters. . . .

The red wave campaign this year is on a much greater scale than 2022. It started much earlier, has many more actors and has produced far more polling. It needed to be bigger for in general election years there is more polling. So to move the averages more polls were needed, and they got to work earlier doing so. And this is important. In 2022 the campaign began late, in mid-October. They had less time to move the averages so their polls were often 3-4 points to the right of the polling as they needed these bigger margins to move the averages in a shorter time period. This time, because they started earlier and are producing more polls their polls are often only 1-2 points to the right of the polling average or independent polls. They are working the averages more carefully this time, over using the time and volume to move them gradually so the op is not as crude and as easy to see as last time. If Harris leads by 2.5 points and you drop 5 polls showing the race tied or her ahead by 1 or even 2 points the averages moves and it looks like she is losing altitude.

Again Rein, why was the betting market correct in 2020 but wrong now in 2024?
#15 | Posted by Bluewaffles

The betting market was wrong in 2016, btw, and could very well be wrong now:

The Wall Street Journal had a major piece on Polymarket yesterday, writing:

Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning on Friday, while Harris's chances were 40%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.

Trump's gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump's favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump's growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. "More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line," Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.