Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Maybe Democrats Didn’t Do So Badly After All

Trump's popular-vote margin has shrunk to about 1.5 percent"one of the tightest in the past half century"and because some votes went to third-party and independent candidates, he'll fall just short of winning a majority of the vote nationwide. And in the House, they gained a seat, leaving the GOP with the second-smallest majority in history.

Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 08:26 AM | 10 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

FTA:

"If the Democratic brand was fundamentally broken and needed to be thrown out, this election would have been a complete blowout. And it was not. It was way too close," Yasmin Radjy, the executive director of Swing Left, a Democratic organizing group, told me. Another Democrat, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly, put it this way: "We lost an election. We didn't lose the country."

In some areas, the election looked like a red wave; compared with four years ago, the presidential vote swung to the right by about 10 points in some of the most populous blue states, such as New York, California, and New Jersey. But down-ballot races offer a solid case for Democratic optimism. The party label appeared to be far less of an albatross for Democratic congressional candidates than it was in strong Republican years such as 2010 and 2014. In the Senate this year, although Republicans flipped four seats, Democratic candidates prevailed in four battleground states that Kamala Harris lost to Trump. And according to the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Democrats could have retaken the House majority with only 7,309 more votes across three congressional districts.


#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:29 AM

The country is till pretty evenly divided, which is why I think if Republicans tried to go full steam ahead on Project 2025, they will be making a very big mistake:

By the way, did you know that Trump won the crucial blue wall states--Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin --by 231,000 votes? So if just 116,000 voters across those three swing states " or 0.7% of the total " had switched from Trump to Harris, it is the vice-president who would have won the electoral college ... and the presidency!

. . .In 2024, Republicans flipped the Senate and held onto the House but Trump still ended up having "limited coattails", to quote from the New York Times analysis. Of the five battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) which held Senate races in November, the Republican candidate triumphed in only one of them (David McCormick in Pennsylvania, by a narrow 16,000 votes). Democrats held on to the other four.

www.theguardian.com

Trump's margin of victory was less than 2.3 million votes, and that's not a landslide or a blowout:

David Darmofal
@daviddarmofal.bsky.social

With California's votes now certified, this appears to be the final popular vote count. The margin of 1.47 percentage points is the smallest since the 2000 election. Kamala Harris received over 75 million votes in this election.

#2 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:39 AM

Just going to link to something I posted shortly after the election:

Democrats Join 2024's Graveyard of Incumbents
The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters. This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records. The cause? Inflation.
Dems actually did far better than governing parties in almost every other nation.
drudge.com

Incumbent-parties-lost-vote-share-2024-Gby4hbz-WAAMl-WLo

#3 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 08:40 AM

#3 The second sentence of the Atlantic article I linked to, but cut out in the intro for the sake of brevity, reads:

"Compared with incumbent governments elsewhere in the world, Democrats' losses were modest."

TY for highlighting that fact and in greater detail.

#4 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:45 AM

When Republicans lose, they claim they won. When Republicans win by a little, they say they won by a lot. When Democrats lose by a little, they act like they got massacred. I'm not saying Democrats don't have work to do with the working class, but my prediction is that if Republicans misread the 2024 election results and overplay their hand, they will go a long way in helping Democrats win back that segment of the populaiton.

#5 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:53 AM

"If the Democratic brand was fundamentally broken and needed to be thrown out, this election would have been a complete blowout."

Absolutely garbage.

The Dems ran against the worst candidate in history with enough red flags and baggage that he should have been a joke.

And lost.

"Oh but the vote count was close in swing states."

IT SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN CLOSE AT ALL.

Dems are owned by corporate money. Harris pumped the brakes on anti-corporate themes to protect her donor class. Biden and Co refused to go after price gouging leading inflation or Wall Street buying up homes nationwide.

I was happy Obama took on health insurance and pissed them off but he did nothing about fraud leading to the 2008 collapse. Now the Dems have gotten even worse.

For now, I'm done with the Dems.

#6 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-12-18 10:20 AM

For now, I'm done with the Dems.
#6 | Posted by Sycophant

#7 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 06:33 PM

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??

#8 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2024-12-18 06:39 PM

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??
#8 | Posted by LauraMohr

Sure I do. But helping put Republicans into office seems like an unwise strategy.

Seems preferable to primary Dems into the party you desire. Like the Tea Party and MAGAts have, chasing every reasonable and sane moderating voice out of the GOP. And now they have the SCOTUS of their dreams (also happens to be the SCOTUS of the nightmares of the next three generations).

#9 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 07:56 PM

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??
#8 | Posted by LauraMohr

Regardless. You are going to regret voting for Trump. Again.

#10 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-12-18 08:00 PM

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