Why Iran Thinks It's Winning

Monday, March 30, 2026

Iran's leaders believe they are prevailing in the war, and not without reason, analysts say.

Posted by americanunity at 05:30 PM | 24 COMMENTS | permalink

Never forget who is really winning this war. https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-big-oil

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-- Robert Reich (@rbreich.bsky.social) Mar 30, 2026 at 11:20 AM

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"Rather than bringing down the regime, the campaign is, in several key respects, actually reinforcing it," Danny Citrinowicz, a former Iran specialist for Israeli military intelligence, wrote in Israel Hayom on March 27. Two days earlier, the former head of Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6, Alex Younger, told the Economist: "The reality is that the U.S. underestimated the task, and I think as of about two weeks ago lost the initiative to Iran."

time.com

#1 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 04:20 PM

Here's why

#2 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 04:47 PM

Andrea Junker

@strandjunker.com

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A strategic masterclass: Iran's oil income has doubled since Feb 28. We get the battlefield optics, they get the cash. This is exactly what happens when you improvise a war just to distract from the Epstein files. Truly, a "victory" worth paying for.

www.economist.com

#3 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2026-03-30 04:56 PM

One AI Snapshot:

"The US is "burning" money at a rate nearly 10x to 15x faster than Iran. However, because the US economy is more than 50 times larger than Iran's, the US can sustain these dollar amounts for much longer. For Iran, the cost is existential; for the US, it is a massive budgetary and political strain."

#4 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-03-30 05:07 PM

The article is worth reading. I didn't hit a paywall.

time.com

#5 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 05:20 PM

Why does Iran think it's winning?

Because they are

Handily

Our apparent goal is to reopen the strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war. When your goal is the prewar status quo

You lost

Iran wanted sanctions lifted

They got sanctions lifted

Every Piggy bleat about hitting Iran is nonsense, when our actual policies are counter to that. Claim all you want that you are going to seize Kharg Island while lifting sanctions and allowing Iranian oil to flow to the market. It's pathetic.

Piggy has NO OPTIONS except to continue bombing and more and more moving towards bombing civilian infrastructure. It is inevitable. There is diminishing returns on military target so, you expand to military adjacent targets, i.e. civilian infrastructure.

And every step of the way, Iran can match you tit-for-tat.

THEY HAVE ESCALATION DOMINANCE.

The war is lost, the only question is the price to be paid before Piggy realizes that fact

#6 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 05:23 PM

And you know what is a kicker and will make it infinitely harder to end, Israel. Israel has invaded another country. Iran is WINNING and will dictate terms and those terms will include Israel pulling back.

Are

Fucked

#7 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 05:24 PM

Iran hit a half a billion dollar plane with what a $30,000 drone?

Think about that

We witnessed Ukraine take out numerous Russian strategic bombers with drones, well over a year ago

We have multiple strategic planes blown up on a runway by drones.

That is negligent

That is pathetic

That should piss you off

Our military is Russia level incompetent if we didn't learn the lesson of protect your strategic assets.

Fucking pathetic

#8 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 05:27 PM

More troubling to ordinary Iranians, Golkar says, is that Trump is suing for peace with a regime more extreme and aggressive than at the beginning of the war.

DING DING DING DING

That is what I call a Truth Hurts Bomb

#9 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 05:29 PM

Mow there's a MORE hard line regime in Tehran with feckless figurehead in Khamenei (is he even alive?) and the IRGC in control.

#10 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 05:29 PM

Now there's a MORE hard line regime in Tehran with feckless figurehead in Khamenei (is he even alive?) and the IRGC in control.

#11 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 05:30 PM

"It is amazing," Mohammad Khatami, the reformist cleric twice elected president, said in a March 18 statement, "that those who are capable and eager to achieve an honorable peace, if there is a way to achieve it, are being brutally attacked and assassinated."

This is the result of Israel's intended strategy.

Everyone but Piggy can see it

#12 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 05:33 PM

Khameini is the religious or spiritual head of Iran with temporal powers, like when the Papal States had their own militaries and large bureaucracies.

Khameni's veto powers and ability to issue fatwas is the source of his power, like the popes of yester-century.

But the control machinery of Iran, like the US, is the police state.

Iran has more hardliners in control now?

The US has Pete Hegseth and the US Senate just confirmed a UFC cage match thug to direct DHS.

#13 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-03-30 05:41 PM

TRUTHHURTS

We killed the head of the IGRC. His replacement, Ahmad Vahidi, is a despotic hardliner who seems to be firmly in control.

Who is Ahmad Vahidi?:

Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor-in-chief of the Middle East news outlet Amwaj, said in a post on X that Pakpour and Salami, Vahidi's predecessors, were "schoolteachers compared to this guy".

"The man is brutal. Hardliners wasting no time filling vacancies thanks to Israel," Shabani added.

#14 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 05:55 PM

So, we've done regime change. The new Iranian regime, now run by the IGRC, is even worse.

#15 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 05:58 PM

The new Iranian regime, now run by the IGRC, is even worse.

Who can blame them? The hardliners have been saying since their beginning that America and Israel were out to destroy Iran. It turns out, they were correct.

#16 | Posted by horstngraben at 2026-03-30 06:10 PM

This is a repeat of the Peacock Throne.

After the US installed the Shah of Iran in 1953, his brutal SAVAK repressed dissent.

So much of the intelligentsia, middle ground, and civil society leaders were disappeared from 1953 to 1978 that when the Shah was finally deposed, only angry students (similar to the 1871 Communards of Paris) and religious leaders were left to take over the reins of government.

Hence Ayatollah Khomeini flew in from his French exile in Feb 1979, IIRC.

Someone related this anecdote to me last century:

"Christian" Bono from U2 angrily asked after a terrorist incident in Israel: "Well, where are the Dr Martin Luther King Jrs and non-violent dissidents for the Palestinians?"

A fellow Irishman nearby barked at him: "Dead or in jail, you bollicks!"

#17 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-03-30 06:12 PM

Fuck Bono

#18 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 06:20 PM

Meanwhile, the Marines are preparing their reserves that deployment is in their future

politicalhotwire.com

#19 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 06:25 PM

^ We can guess which one's the protestant and which one's the catholic.

#20 | Posted by horstngraben at 2026-03-30 06:27 PM

I was flabbergasted that an Irishman would ask such an idiotic question.

A pure example of selective sympathy.

Remarkable.

And last century I robustly danced to "Sunday Bloody Sunday" at one of their concerts-- not this one, but close enough.

www.youtube.com

#21 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-03-30 06:30 PM

Bono was against the revolutionary aspect of the Troubles.

Traitor to his people if you ask me

Up the RA!

#22 | Posted by truthhurts at 2026-03-30 06:34 PM

Meanwhile, the Marines are preparing their reserves that deployment is in their future

politicalhotwire.com

#19 | Posted by truthhurts

Sounds like they're expecting casualties. "... (get your) personal affairs in order"

#23 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-03-30 06:37 PM

@19 JFC. This is The Guns of August redux.

Only one Congressman has a child serving in the US military-- he's an NCO in the US Army-- and ZERO children from the mega-oligarchs or the Trumpf Crime Family (TCF) are serving.

AIPAC-recipient candidates from both political parties better start looking over their shoulders this year or these lepers should start wearing disguises in public.

#24 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-03-30 06:40 PM

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