At this point, China's economy seems to be in a precarious position.
China seems to needs exports, though not necessarily to the US, to keep it's manufacturing alive.
... The country's economy has failed to roar back after the government dropped its strict rolling anti-pandemic lockdowns at the end of 2022. Late last year, the government began rolling out its most aggressive stimulus package since the pandemic in a bid to boost borrowing, ease pressure on consumers and encourage domestic spending.
Real Estate
China's property market continues a years long slump that began to unfold after 2020 when overleveraged real estate giants like Evergrande faced government-imposed "three red lines" policies aimed at curbing excessive borrowing and speculation. ...
Trade
Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports, citing market oversaturation and threats to U.S. industries.
Even 60 percent trade duties, however, would have a negligible impact on China's growth prospects, Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at financial services firm StoneX Group, told Newsweek, pointing out that the U.S. share of Chinese imports is in the single digits. ...
Consumer Spending
Deluard emphasized that improving domestic confidence would have a far greater impact on growth. "Private consumption, at just 50 percent of GDP, is the biggest reservoir of untapped growth," he said. ...
"The immediate problem of the economy boils down to anemic growth," Mary Gallagher, dean at the University of Notre Dame's Keough School of Global Affairs, wrote this week for World Politics Review. "Necessary limits on investment-led expansion and the property sector have cut off traditional avenues of growth, while China's household consumption did not make the comeback that many expected with the end of Beijing's draconian 'Zero COVID' policy."
As a result, consumers felt the pinch, with declining property values eroding their net worth and the pandemic shock leaving many feeling financially insecure. This uncertainty, compounded by deteriorating trade relationships with key Chinese trade partners, caused households to tighten their belts in anticipation of tougher times ahead, Gallagher added. ...
imo, good article, worth the read ...
