Private credit’s 'zero-loss fantasy' is coming to an end
Deteriorating asset quality, collateral markdowns and a growing rush for the exits are rattling private credit markets and prompting comparisons to the Global Financial Crisis.
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qcp
Joined 2007/07/05Visited 2026/03/25
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More: Ares Management on Tuesday opted to curb investor withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund, just a day after Apollo Global Management unveiled similar measures in one of its vehicles. Ares has capped redemptions in its Ares Strategic Income Fund at 5%, after withdrawal requests surged to 11.6%, according to a Bloomberg report.
Other managers, including Blue Owl Capital and Cliffwater, have also scrambled to halt or restrict withdrawals in recent weeks, as rising default fears spark an investor retreat from the sector.
Comparisons to the build-up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis are now intensifying as concerns over underlying loan quality grow.
Morgan Stanley recently warned default rates in private credit direct lending could surge to 8%, well above the 2-2.5% historical average, with pressure concentrated in sectors vulnerable to AI disruption, such as software.
#1 | Posted by qcp at 2026-03-25 09:27 AM | Reply
-Morgan Stanley recently warned default rates in private credit direct lending could surge to 8%
what is "private credit direct lending"? what kind of a loan is that?
#2 | Posted by eberly at 2026-03-25 09:30 AM | Reply
AI Overview
Private credit direct lending involves non-bank institutions--such as asset managers or BDCs--providing customized, senior-secured loans directly to middle-market companies. It is a rapidly growing alternative asset class (36% of total private credit in 2024) offering investors floating-rate income, higher yields, and stronger downside protections, typically via maintenance covenants.
#3 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-03-25 10:19 AM | Reply
Thanks. Sorry....I could have done that. That's kind of what I thought it was.
It's a signal of what's coming.............thanks for sharing.
#4 | Posted by eberly at 2026-03-25 10:40 AM | Reply
4. I worked for the Fed back in the late 80s, and the economists were all about creating weird theoretical asset/loan/derivative instruments and what their effects might be.
About half the economists were hip or at least interesting smartypants; the other half you'd have a hard time peeling off a wall.
#5 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-03-25 11:08 AM | Reply
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