'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages?

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate"or maybe they're trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.

Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 10:31 AM | 30 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

FTA:

"In many ways, the polling debate of 2024 comes down to this dilemma. On the one hand, pollsters undercounted Donald Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. On the other, in 2022, some of the averages, fed by GOP data, inspired certain observers to discern the infamous red wave that never materialized. So the question now is: Will 2024 be more like 2016 and 2020, presidential elections in which there was a hidden Trump vote, or will it be more like 2022, a midterm campaign but the first post-Dobbs election when at least some observers missed the Democratic vote that turned out in no small part in response to the Supreme Court taking away the right to an abortion?"

Personally, I think the race will be very close again this year, and the results could go either way. The only thing to do now is to vote and to get your family and friends to vote as well. Obama always says, Don't boo. Vote." To that I'll just add, "Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote."

#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 08:25 AM

And excellent post, Gal_Tuesday!

And your comment ("Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote.") dovetails nicely with the first 9 posts in this thread.

#StrongerTogether + #Indivisible

#2 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-23 08:39 AM

And your comment ("Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote.") dovetails nicely with the first 9 posts in this thread.
#2 | Posted by Hans

Excellent series of posts, Hans.

#3 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 09:15 AM

Great article. I just read it. Before I read it I had typed out all thise:

Remember back when the Republicans were screaming about "skewed polls"?

Looks like they figured out how to weaponize their baseless charge. Turn it into a tactic to set the stage for falsly contesting the election.
They're manufacturing "evidence" ahead of time. Fake evidence. Creating a bed of lies to point to as "evidence."

Then I read the following in the article:

Steele also shares some of the same worries as Rosenberg, Bonier, and others"that pro-Trump pollsters are feeding a perception of a Trump lead to provide his allies a way to blame a Trump loss on a rigged election. "They're gamed on the back end so MAGA can make the claim that the election was stolen," he said.

Stuart Stevens, the anti-Trump former Republican pollster, agreed. "Their game plan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that's how you lead people to think the race was stolen," Stevens said. All manner of postelection mischief-making, and maybe even political violence, would be thus justified.

Looks like it's going to be one hell of a bumpy ride.

#4 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-23 10:15 AM

Speaking of Stuart Stevens:

Stuart Stevns
@stuartpstevens

At this point in October 2020, I wrote a piece for the glorious @BulwarkOnline , imploring my new Dem friends to finish the campaign with confidence and swagger. I wrote that if I ran the Dem party, my message would be:

We are going to crush Donald Trump and the sickness he represents. There are more of us than there are of them. We are right. They are wrong. This is our moment. This is our destiny. Walk with confidence. Do not falter. Victory will be ours.

I once again make the plea. Arrogance is walking on the field, bragging you will win without having done the work. The Harris-Walz campaign and thousands of volunteers are doing the hard work. You've earned it.

No team wins the Superbowl thinking, "We might have a shot." This is yours. Walk out and take it. You will look back at this moment with quiet pride and satisfaction for the rest of your life, knowing that when America called, you answered.

www.thebulwark.com

#5 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 11:06 AM

Thank you, Gal!

#6 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-23 11:23 AM

#5 - NICE! Hell yes!

#7 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-23 11:34 AM

Who cares what the GOP says or does.
Just vote. We will know where America stands
in 2 - 2 1/2 weeks.

#8 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-10-23 12:27 PM

Many Democrats are anxious, some are despairing. I get it. I really do. Democrats are not Republicans, many of whom are still predicting the Trump landslide victory they thought they had in the bag back in early July when Biden was still in the race. But what if there was reason for Democrats to have hope? What might that case look like?:

The Case for Optimism for Kamala Harris

www.messageboxnews.com

#9 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 12:48 PM

Vote for Harris like your vote is the only one that matters.

#10 | Posted by Tor at 2024-10-23 01:20 PM

I've been thinking this for awhile now.
Not that there is much time to debate it w the
election only 2 weeks away.

IF and I do say IF, IF Harris wins by larger
than a razor thin margin in some of these
contested states, it may be worth looking at
how some of these corporately owned polls weigh
their results.

#11 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-10-23 03:19 PM

Looks like it's going to be one hell of a bumpy ride.
#4 | POSTED BY YAV A

Nah, the polls are not showing the reality. Pollsters are paid by the media, the media needs it to be close to keep ad dollars coming in.

Kamala has so much money, the media companies are drooling, "MAKE HER SPEND IT!"

Harris will win.

#12 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-10-23 03:32 PM

I'll just add, "Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote."

That sentiment, "Don't get discouraged..", is exactly why right wing pollsters would try to "rig" the polls.

#13 | Posted by FedUpWithPols at 2024-10-23 05:16 PM

Rigging polls serves one of two purposes.

1. Helps you cheat to win and then declare the polls proved the result to be true.

2. Helps you complain about losing since the polls said you'd win.

I don't pay attention to polls.

2016 proved how worthless they are.

#14 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-10-23 05:26 PM

Nah, the polls are not showing the reality.

Somehow you managed to miss the entire point of what I posted and then came to an erroneous conclusion that somehow, somewhere in what I posted, I put my belief in the polls. In fact the premise of my post was rooted in the assumption that the polls were not only not accurate, did not reflect reality, but were deliberately skewed to lie.

#15 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-23 06:36 PM

The polls are deliberately skewed to keep voters at home.

#16 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-10-23 06:38 PM

Alexandrite is starting to sound like a 2012 Republican ...

#17 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-10-23 11:19 PM

Also for what it's worth ... and I consider them to be ------ 538 addresses this concern in their modeling and they still have Trump winning ...

#18 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-10-23 11:21 PM

Polls have been garbage since 2015. did hillary win? did biden lose to trump?

#19 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-10-23 11:22 PM

Not really Alexandrite when it comes to 2020 ... They had Biden winning and he won. 2022 polling had Republicans taking back the House (they did get a bit cocky and were incorrect towards the end on certain Senate races) this is why I rely upon RealClear instead of 538.

#20 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-10-23 11:25 PM

@#2017 ... Alexandrite is starting to sound like a 2012 Republican ...

... and your current alias seems to regard that as A Bad Thing?

Why?

#21 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-23 11:29 PM

@#19 .. Polls have been garbage since 2015. did hillary win? ...

For the record....

The polls did not show a SoS Clinton win in 2016. They showed a toss-up.

www.realclearpolitics.com

It was the interpretation and projection of the polling that predicted the wrong outcome.

And that is why I so readily dismiss such projections of late, and prefer to focus upon the polling numbers.

And, also, fwiw, those polling numbers show that VP Harris has lost momentum she had.

www.realclearpolling.com

(scroll down to the graph)

And, yeah, I know it is all about the battleground states.

So, let's go there...

www.realclearpolling.com

Yeah, that doesn't look good either.

#22 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-23 11:38 PM

www.rawstory.com

#23 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-10-23 11:51 PM

@#23

Thanks for that link.

But it does little more than substantiate what I have been saying.

The pollsters are reporting what is told to them.

So, I'll ask again...

Are the pollsters lying, or are they just accurately reporting the opinions of those they poll?

But to the point of the article you cite...

Keep in mind the "frame" of the poll.

I have discussed the "frame" in prior comments.

But quite succinctly, the "frame" is the sub-universe of a poll.

After a while there does seem to be a distinction among the various polls, i.e., it is easy to see whether or nt they skew their "frame."

#24 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-24 12:13 AM

I think we've not considered the possibility that the pollsters are being lied too by women who fully intend to vote for Kamala Harris. Regardless of what their husbands think.

#25 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-10-24 12:57 AM

Polling rigging is now in question too because we've been conditioned to be polarized more by politics instead of facts.

Our public schools and universities teach political obedience instead of critical thinking and open ended debate. Those that should be conditioning us to debate and think candidly are first to close the door on discussion.

We need ongoing face to face public debate at the media level such as between Fox and MSNBC to break the back of political compartmentalization and force all issues to be publicly discussed. There should be no more unchallenged media stories.

#26 | Posted by Robson at 2024-10-24 09:58 AM

Re 26

Rigger please!

Rigging is in "question" only because Trumpy is colluding with the Russians to undermine our democracy by spreading lies and propaganda.

You can blah blah all day every day but it does not and will never negate the fact that Trumpy lied and continues to lie about the last election and Trumpy and minions around the country continue to lie about and attempt to undermine our elections systems.

Rudy Colludy was sued into oblivion for his lies. Trumpy and his minions have been indicted for their conspiracies to undermine our elections.

But still you refuse learn a damn thing.

Because here you are. Lying your traitorous arse off.

Our public schools and universities teach political obedience instead of critical thinking and open ended debate.

What a load of horse crap. Just hateful nonsense with no proof whatsoever to back it up. So now we just say hateful things as much as we can as though they were true? Just because we can?

Which Russian propaganda troll farm do you get this crap from this time? The internet research agency? Fancy bear? Russia Today? Or are you just a useful tool of our hostile adversaries?

#27 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-10-24 10:48 AM

-Our public schools and universities teach political obedience instead of critical thinking and open ended debate.

I have 2 kids graduating next May. One with an undergrad and the other law school but they both attended a public university for their bachelors degree(s).

While there is anecdotal evidence of universities allowing an environment of "political obedience", it's not as pervasive and heavy-handed as you might think.

There are some examples in the NE, and the West Coast that supports your assertion but it's not everywhere.

#28 | Posted by eberly at 2024-10-24 11:09 AM

There are some examples in the NE, and the West Coast that supports your assertion but it's not everywhere.

#28 | POSTED BY EBERLY

Yeah I didn't mean there aren't any like that because obviously there are but to imply all American public schools are all like that is just maga nonsense.

But. You forgot the obvious examples.

That would be Christian Colleges and Universities like Liberty U in Virginia.

But there are plenty of colleges and Universities in America and elsewhere that are not politically or religiously oriented. To group them all into one category is ignoring reality.

Which maga maroons are really good at.

Apparently.

#29 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-10-24 11:27 AM

Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
let me relate how bad the RealClear average of polls has been because they include junk polls: in 2022, realclear had Whitmer only winning by 1, she won by 11; had Fetterman in PA losing by 1, he won by 5; had AZ Gov race Dem losing by 3, Dem won by 1; Nevada Sen. had Dem losing by 4, Dem won by one.
3:49 PM Oct 24, 2024

#30 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-24 09:43 PM

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