Wednesday, October 23, 2024

'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages?

Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate"or maybe they're trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.

Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 10:31 AM | 10 COMMENTS | permalink

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FTA:

"In many ways, the polling debate of 2024 comes down to this dilemma. On the one hand, pollsters undercounted Donald Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. On the other, in 2022, some of the averages, fed by GOP data, inspired certain observers to discern the infamous red wave that never materialized. So the question now is: Will 2024 be more like 2016 and 2020, presidential elections in which there was a hidden Trump vote, or will it be more like 2022, a midterm campaign but the first post-Dobbs election when at least some observers missed the Democratic vote that turned out in no small part in response to the Supreme Court taking away the right to an abortion?"

Personally, I think the race will be very close again this year, and the results could go either way. The only thing to do now is to vote and to get your family and friends to vote as well. Obama always says, Don't boo. Vote." To that I'll just add, "Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote."

#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 08:25 AM

And excellent post, Gal_Tuesday!

And your comment ("Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote.") dovetails nicely with the first 9 posts in this thread.

#StrongerTogether + #Indivisible

#2 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-23 08:39 AM

And your comment ("Don't get discouraged, don't give up already, don't hyperventilate, vote.") dovetails nicely with the first 9 posts in this thread.
#2 | Posted by Hans

Excellent series of posts, Hans.

#3 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 09:15 AM

Great article. I just read it. Before I read it I had typed out all thise:

Remember back when the Republicans were screaming about "skewed polls"?

Looks like they figured out how to weaponize their baseless charge. Turn it into a tactic to set the stage for falsly contesting the election.
They're manufacturing "evidence" ahead of time. Fake evidence. Creating a bed of lies to point to as "evidence."

Then I read the following in the article:

Steele also shares some of the same worries as Rosenberg, Bonier, and others"that pro-Trump pollsters are feeding a perception of a Trump lead to provide his allies a way to blame a Trump loss on a rigged election. "They're gamed on the back end so MAGA can make the claim that the election was stolen," he said.

Stuart Stevens, the anti-Trump former Republican pollster, agreed. "Their game plan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that's how you lead people to think the race was stolen," Stevens said. All manner of postelection mischief-making, and maybe even political violence, would be thus justified.

Looks like it's going to be one hell of a bumpy ride.

#4 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-23 10:15 AM

Speaking of Stuart Stevens:

Stuart Stevns
@stuartpstevens

At this point in October 2020, I wrote a piece for the glorious @BulwarkOnline , imploring my new Dem friends to finish the campaign with confidence and swagger. I wrote that if I ran the Dem party, my message would be:

We are going to crush Donald Trump and the sickness he represents. There are more of us than there are of them. We are right. They are wrong. This is our moment. This is our destiny. Walk with confidence. Do not falter. Victory will be ours.

I once again make the plea. Arrogance is walking on the field, bragging you will win without having done the work. The Harris-Walz campaign and thousands of volunteers are doing the hard work. You've earned it.

No team wins the Superbowl thinking, "We might have a shot." This is yours. Walk out and take it. You will look back at this moment with quiet pride and satisfaction for the rest of your life, knowing that when America called, you answered.

www.thebulwark.com


#5 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 11:06 AM

Thank you, Gal!

#6 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-23 11:23 AM

#5 - NICE! Hell yes!

#7 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-23 11:34 AM

Who cares what the GOP says or does.
Just vote. We will know where America stands
in 2 - 2 1/2 weeks.

#8 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-10-23 12:27 PM

Many Democrats are anxious, some are despairing. I get it. I really do. Democrats are not Republicans, many of whom are still predicting the Trump landslide victory they thought they had in the bag back in early July when Biden was still in the race. But what if there was reason for Democrats to have hope? What might that case look like?:

The Case for Optimism for Kamala Harris

www.messageboxnews.com

#9 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-10-23 12:48 PM

Vote for Harris like your vote is the only one that matters.

#10 | Posted by Tor at 2024-10-23 01:20 PM

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