The Economist has calculated that if the Russian offensive continues at its current pace, Russia would need until June 2030 to completely occupy Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and it would take another 103 years to capture the whole of Ukraine.
Russia does not appear to be winning the war on the battlefield. It is advancing only slowly, with little hope of a breakthrough and at a cost that is unsustainable in manpower and materiel. My latest on the war: www.economist.com/interactive/ ...
-- Sondre Ulvund Solstad (@sondreus.bsky.social) Oct 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM
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@4 ... Russia doesn't care about completely occupying all of Ukraine ...
Pres Putin has stated that Ukraine should not exist.
Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine's right to exist (2023)
www.atlanticcouncil.org
... Recent comments by Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, claiming that the war with Russia has reached a "stalemate," have sparked fresh calls for a negotiated settlement. While this desire to end the bloodshed in Ukraine is perfectly understandable, anyone advocating a peace deal with Vladimir Putin must first reckon with the genocidal reality of Russia's invasion. Putin himself has repeatedly made clear that he denies Ukraine's right to exist and is determined to extinguish Ukrainian statehood. Unless he is defeated, any compromise agreement would merely set the stage for the next phase in Russia's campaign to wipe Ukraine off the map.
Putin's obsession with Ukraine and his rejection of the country's historical legitimacy were on full display recently during a November 3 address to Russia's Public Chamber. "There was no Ukraine in the Russian Empire," he declared. The Russian dictator went on to repeat many of his most notorious historical distortions, including the claim that Ukraine had been artificially created by Vladimir Lenin and the early Soviet authorities "at the expense of southern Russian lands."
Such arguments are not new. Indeed, Putin has been weaponizing history to delegitimize independent Ukraine for nearly two decades, with this trend escalating dramatically during the build-up to the current full-scale invasion. ...
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