The Economist has calculated that if the Russian offensive continues at its current pace, Russia would need until June 2030 to completely occupy Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and it would take another 103 years to capture the whole of Ukraine. Since May 2025, Russia has captured only 0.4% of Ukrainian territory and has not achieved any serious objectives. The Economist said Russia is paying a huge price for minimal gains on the battlefield. "Our meta-estimate suggests that, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January of this year, Russian casualties amounted to 640,000 to 877,000 soldiers, of whom 137,000 to 228,000 have died. By 13 Oct, those totals had risen by almost 60%, to 984,000 to 1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000 to 480,000 dead.
A sudden breakthrough of Ukraine's defensive lines is unlikely, since "surveillance, coupled with long-range precision weaponry, has made massing forces near the front suicidal." However, incremental successes remain possible, albeit at a huge cost, by sending small groups of fighters into the death zone to capture advanced positions. "If Western backing for Ukraine holds, the war may well grind on at enormous cost, with Russia gaining ground only slowly. But Russia's ability to fight on at today's pace may also be coming to an end. And if Mr Putin pushes on regardless, he would be running another risk. After three years of thwarted offensives, a sudden collapse may become more likely in the Russian war economy than in Ukraine's defensive lines." The Russian army lost 1,000 soldiers killed and wounded and 45 artillery systems over the 24 hours. Soon Russia's "Special Military Operation" will surpass the "Great Patriotic War" (1941-1945) in duration. An international arrest warrant issued by the ICC for war crimes remains active for Vladimir Putin. An indictment is merely an allegation. Mr Putin is presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt at an international tribunal to be held for him at a future date at the Hague.
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