... 2024 was forecast to be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. Yet Atlantic storm activity is in a near-historic pause.
Why it matters: The reduced activity highlights the challenge of long-term forecasting, even as short-term forecasts indicate things will soon kick back up.
Between the lines: The causes of the pause come down to a few big factors.
- - - The unusually stable atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic, which discourages the air from rising, cooling and condensing into clouds and forming organized storms.
- - - In addition, the region where the trade winds meet, known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, has been displaced well to the north of its typical position across Africa.
- - - This has caused seedlings for tropical storms and hurricanes to emerge off the west coast of Africa near northern Mauritania and Western Sahara rather than the more typical location of Senegal. These clusters of thunderstorms quickly cross over cold waters and dissipate.
- - - The unusually active African monsoon has also bolstered easterly winds at mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere across large parts of the tropical Atlantic. This causes wind shear that tears incipient storms to pieces.
Yes, but: The quiet in the Atlantic Ocean basin, which in an active season would be giving rise to multiple storms and hurricanes at this time of year, appears to be on the verge of ending. ...
By the numbers: This season is running above average in most measures of storm activity, having had three hurricanes, including one major hurricane already.
- - - This season is also ahead of the long-term average when it comes to a key measure of the strength and duration of Atlantic storms.
- - - However, Klotzbach says if the quiet period were to extend longer than expected, 2024 could fall below average for a time. ...
