Top Oil Traders Turn Bearish on Prices, Seeing Oversupply

Sunday, March 16, 2025

The mood at Houston's big annual oil and gas get-together has been upbeat on the prospects for the industry under a fossil fuel-friendly Trump administration. But there's a significant catch: some of the biggest oil traders are getting more bearish on the outlook for crude prices.

Posted by LampLighter at 05:33 PM | 12 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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Donald Trump's administration wants crude prices to hit $50 a barrel or lower. But the benefit for US consumers risks throttling the same oil industry the president wants to expand. Read what analysts have to say about the $50 benchmark: www.ft.com/content/95ea ...

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-- Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) March 13, 2025 at 8:16 AM

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... While they don't see the prospect of a crash, top traders including Vitol and Gunvor said prices could grind lower as supply starts to outstrip demand. The OPEC+ group of producers has begun releasing additional barrels into the market, the US will continue to add production -- albeit more slowly than in recent years -- and South America is also growing.

"The industry is over-drilling now, that is clear," Gunvor Group Chairman Torbjrn Trnqvist said in an interview at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. "We are drilling more inside and outside OPEC than demand growth warrants." ...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-13 06:56 PM | Reply

A question:

How will Pres Trump's "drill, baby, drill" mantra work in this apparent oversupply situation?

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-13 06:57 PM | Reply

---- Big Oil, ---- Fat Donnie Loser, and ---- Musk

#3 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-03-13 09:41 PM | Reply

Drill stupid drill!

#4 | Posted by danni at 2025-03-17 06:16 AM | Reply

Drill stupid drill!

#5 | Posted by danni at 2025-03-17 06:24 AM | Reply

Demand is dropping. Supply remains virtually unchanged.

As I said before, why would they drill if its not profitable?

#6 | Posted by Sycophant at 2025-03-17 10:29 AM | Reply

Drill baby duh!

#7 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2025-03-18 12:18 AM | Reply

Isn't shale fracking a loss under $60/bbl?

#8 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-03-18 12:26 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Wait, didn't fat nixon step in and broker a deal with Russia and Open in 2020 to cut production to boost prices?

Fking looney toons.

#9 | Posted by Nixon at 2025-03-18 11:51 AM | Reply

Isn't shale fracking a loss under $60/bbl?

#8 | POSTED BY REDIAL

Watched Landman. It was pretty good. Gotta love Billy Bob Thornton.

I don't think any oilman was really tortured by the cartel (it's Hollywood afterall) but they did a pretty good job of explaining the oil business and how they think and how some drillers go bankrupt and lose everything when oil drops to a certain price.

#10 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-03-18 01:37 PM | Reply

"Isn't shale fracking a loss under $60/bbl?"

^
My understanding is this economic reality is the reason for both Iraq Wars.

#11 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-03-18 01:38 PM | Reply

#11

Good point. Perhaps this is the reason Trump is now shooting at the Houthis.

#12 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2025-03-18 02:50 PM | Reply