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Saturday, November 14, 2026

El Nio could bring a milder winter, but an early polar vortex breakdown may send Arctic air south. Forecasters say it's too soon to know which will prevail.

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Record polar vortex breakdown raises cold weather risk ft.trib.al/VuC2b5q

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-- Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) 1:22 AM · Nov 14, 2026

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More from the article ...

... A change in the polar vortex could negate what we've been hearing about a warmer El Nio winter.

Scientists say the system of winds that usually keeps Arctic air near the North Pole has broken down earlier than ever recorded. That could allow frigid air to spill south in the coming weeks.

Parts of the eastern U.S. are already experiencing temperatures 7 to 14 degrees below average.

But the historically strong El Nio we've been anticipating could counteract the cold. Forecasters say it's too early to know which weather pattern will dominate.

The polar vortex is a regular feature of Earth's polar latitudes. It is a concentration of cold air and low pressure that is usually kept relatively close to the north and south poles. ...



#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-11-14 12:29 AM | Reply

Another view ...

The polar vortex just broke a new record but experts aren't sure what it means for this winter's weather
www.bbc.com
... The spiralling winds of the polar vortex high above the Arctic have reversed direction marking the earliest 'major sudden stratospheric warming' on record.

These polar winds usually blow in a westerly direction keeping cold air locked high above the North Pole.

However in recent weeks the polar vortex has weakened and shifted position. Observations have now shown a switch to easterly winds, which experts say defines a 'major sudden stratospheric warming' or SSW.

Similar disruptions can occur during winter and are often linked with colder weather in the UK. But this event happening so early in autumn is unprecedented in modern observations.

What is sudden stratospheric warming?

The polar vortex is a normal feature of our climate in the months around winter. As the North Pole tilts away from the sun, temperatures above the Arctic drop and strong westerly winds form in the stratosphere.

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is when a rapid and dramatic rise in temperature occurs high in the stratosphere, roughly 10 to 30 miles (15-50km) above Earth's surface.

It can happen due to atmospheric disturbences causing a shift in the position or shape of the polar vortex which can make its winds weaken.

This sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) can eventually lead to the strong westerlies reversing into easterly winds.

In the following days and weeks these changes can slowly filter lower down in the atmosphere altering the position of the jet stream which drives what type of weather we experience on the ground. ...

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-11-14 12:31 AM | Reply

Everyone always talks about the weather but no one ever does anything about it!

#3 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-11-14 12:03 PM | Reply

It's going to be an odd winter. I have lots of firewood stacked up.

#4 | Posted by REDIAL at 2026-11-14 12:06 PM | Reply

It's already the middle of November. It has been unusually warm here on the Lost Coast.

Storms coming down from the north have not brought the cold polar air as usual. Yet.

#5 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-11-14 12:13 PM | Reply

Looks like the jet stream is over your world now. It's been in the north for a few weeks.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL at 2026-11-14 12:28 PM | Reply

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