look at this from a risk management perspective.....

several risk factors had to be present at the same time.

high winds
low humidity
fairly dense housing
billions of $$ of property at risk in the event of a wildfire

These are all factors that had to be present at the same time in order for this to happen, right?

IOW, if you remove any of those factors....the chance of this level of devastation occurring is significantly reduced or even eliminated.

and to add onto it....

let's pretend there is no risk transfer mechanism (property and casualty insurance) available to purchase.

we have to self-insure this risk.......what changes would we make if we had to self-insure it all??

we'd look harder at the probability of those risk factors all being present at the same time (and any other factors I failed to mention).

-We have one here.

several, actually.

21

I see....I stand corrected. Thanks.

-You left out extreme and highly abnormal winter drought in that area.

Is that mutually exclusive of the humidity? What's the significance of drought separate from low humidity?

humidity can be measured.....how do we measure drought?

I'm just asking...not arguing.

25

okay....is there data available that captures the level of drought on a day to day basis in a given area? specifically this area where the fires are occurring?

I'm trying to get to a point where a probability of all these factors happening at once can be calculated.

I keep seeing "abnormal conditions" being written. Meaning low probability of it all occurring together.

how low of a probability? from a PR perspective it would helpful to illustrate how of a probability this was of happening to combat the camp of people who are blaming local officials and the state of california in general for inaction and incompetence.

I'm sure many folks in high profile positions had data of this nature right now.........

and to the drought questions I posed in 26......it's because wind speed and humidity levels day by day is probably available. It's why they both are solid risk factors.

"The winds are a more recent thing"

Santa Ana winds typically occur in fall and winter, peaking between September and March.
Gusts often exceed 60 miles per hour (97 kilometers per hour), and extreme cases have recorded speeds of up to 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour).
The winds bring extremely low humidity, often below 10 percent, significantly drying out vegetation and increasing wildfire risks.
Santa Ana winds typically occur 10 to 25 times each year.
These occurrences can last anywhere from one to seven days, with the average duration being three days.

30/31

Thanks to you both for the context.

I grew up on a farm. "Drought" was a term used by farmers to point out the lack of precipitation. well....to bitch about it really..

I suspected there were far more detailed factors that truly defines a drought and how to measure it......but I don't know anything about it.