Tuesday, July 15, 2025

'both the currency and the bond market can collapse' If Trump Fires Powell

If President Trump gets his way and removes Jerome Powell as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market reaction would be swift and brutal, Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos argues.

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It hasn't been an easy start to 2025 for Jerome Powell. Unfortunately for the Fed chair, the second half of the year is likely to be even tougher.

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-- Business Insider (@businessinsider.com) Jul 13, 2025 at 5:31 AM

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The article continues,

Saravelos said a removal of Powell would be far worse than President Nixon's imposition of Arthur Burns on the Fed in the 1970s. Nixon and Burns, like Trump, were fixated on lowering interest rates -- and thus fueled the stagflation of that decade.

Today, "the U.S. is running a much larger twin deficit and negative foreign asset position, capital markets are far more open and disproportionately skewed towards U.S. asset allocation, and the global exchange rate system is free-floating as opposed to fixed. All these ingredients argue for significantly greater global disruption than in the 1970s," Saravelos warned.

The first warning sign would be a sharp fall in the value of the U.S. dollar. The greenback has already fallen 9.75% this year, its worst first-half performance in years.

#1 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-07-14 11:02 PM

Every action Trump has taken since the beginning of his second presidency has both hurt this nation and the strength of the dollar.

That seems to be his only objective.

#2 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-07-14 11:06 PM

That seems to be his only objective.

That, along with lining his own pockets.

#3 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-07-14 11:34 PM

He's been doing a great job of that too.

#4 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-07-14 11:39 PM

Yep.

Forcing out Powell will indicate that the Fed is no longer independent of the US Government, and in this case under the thumb of an incompetent, mentally ill 79-year old who has little inkling of economics, capital markets and the now-faltering position of the US economy. Powell out and some lackey in will confirm to investors that Treasury securities are no longer a safe haven, that interest rates may change on a whim, and that the new Fed chair may well try to ignore the actions and advice of the Federal Open Markets Committee at the Fed. All this adds up to a sudden, permanent spike in interest rates, from Treasury securities to the lowest rated junk bonds, and including interest rates on credit cards. "Hammer time" only begins to describe what could well happen.

El Rey Dotardo II open seeks to surround himself with boot lickers and sycophants who (in Trump's opinion) look good on television. No other qualifications are necessary. If a new Fed chair without the serious experience and intellect necessary for the job is presented, markets will react badly.

In my opinion Jay Powell has done a great job steering the US economy through the past 5+ years. Trump is close to throwing all of that work into the ash heap, and could come close to setting off an immediate recession, with trillions in debt no longer of interest to investors worldwide.

Pushing out Powell will have very bad consequences for the US...

#5 | Posted by catdog at 2025-07-15 05:05 PM

Both the currency and the bond market will collapse if Trump fires Powell?

Then Mr. Powel is a goner.

#6 | Posted by Zed at 2025-07-15 05:14 PM

"The currency and the bond market collapsing is good, actually, because..." - MAGA

#7 | Posted by hamburglar at 2025-07-15 06:16 PM

He's the only guardrail left-currency has already dropped 10% since Jan. 1. If Powell goes, it'll be survival of the fittest time.

#8 | Posted by Yodagirl at 2025-07-15 06:56 PM

He's the only guardrail left-currency has already dropped 10% since Jan. 1. If Powell goes, it'll be survival of the fittest time.

Posted by Yodagirl at 2025-07-15 06:56 PM | Reply

We're so screwed if he loses his job. These are devastating times.

#9 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2025-07-15 07:16 PM

Amen to that Laura.

#10 | Posted by Yodagirl at 2025-07-16 10:04 AM

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