Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, April 17, 2024

A Chinese specialist on Russia has delivered a grim forecast for Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine: that it is doomed to fail.



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Since the Ukrainians aren't Russians and don't see themselves that way, of course Putin will fail. Giving them the means to fight simply means that he will fail sooner rather than later.

#1 | Posted by Zed at 2024-04-16 05:48 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Fun fact: If the Germans had embraced the Ukrainian Independence Movement in World War II they might have won on the Russian Front.

#2 | Posted by Zed at 2024-04-16 05:49 PM | Reply

Chinese Expert on Russia Predicts Putin's FAIL in Ukraine


#3 | Posted by censored at 2024-04-16 06:14 PM | Reply

"Feng presented four major factors that he believes will "make Russia's eventual defeat inevitable."

First on the list is the "level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary."

The second factor is the international support for Kyiv, which the academic said "remains broad," though he acknowledged the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky finds it wanting.

The third factor at play is the "nature of modern warfare," according to Feng, who described this as a combination of "industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems."

Russia's war machine is at a disadvantage here, Feng said, because the country never fully recovered from the "dramatic deindustrialization" that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Russia's fourth critical deficit is a lack of information among Kremlin decision-makers at the highest levels, Feng said. Trapped inside an "information cocoon," Putin and his national security advisers don't have ready access to accurate intelligence, limiting their capacity to fix mistakes.

Feng contrasted this with Ukraine's "more flexible and effective" government."

#4 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 12:31 PM | Reply

"Feng also said "shrewd observers" have seen Beijing's approach to Moscow transition from a "no-limits partnership," which was declared by Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping just before the invasion, to China's standard position of nonalignment.

"China's relations with Russia are not fixed, and they have been affected by the events of the past two years," he wrote."

#5 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 12:38 PM | Reply

This may be true as regards Western Ukraine.

The Eastern Oblasts are Russia, Crimea is Russia.

They don't even want to be part of Ukraine. They were fighting to leave Ukraine for nine years before the invasion in 2022.

A negotiated armistice and partition of Ukraine is the way this will ultimately end if the current trends continue. Unless the front collapses, then Russia will have the headache of administering a hostile population in Western Ukraine.

That would be a big problem. So it's better if the war ends with a truncated Ukraine that reflects the will of its people.

If the Ukrainians were to retake the East and win their objectives it would cause endless war for them too.

Donbass is Russia, Crimea is Russia.

Any other outcome will cause long term War and instability.

#6 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-04-17 02:18 PM | Reply

"In early 2014, the Euromaidan protests led to the Revolution of Dignity and the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Shortly after, pro-Russian unrest erupted in eastern and southern Ukraine, while unmarked Russian troops occupied Crimea.

Russia soon annexed Crimea after a highly disputed referendum.

In April 2014, Russian-backed militants seized towns in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) as independent states, starting the Donbas war.

The separatists received considerable but covert support from Russia, and Ukrainian attempts to fully retake separatist-held areas failed.

Although Russia denied involvement, Russian troops took part in the fighting.

In February 2015, Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk II agreements to end the conflict, but they were never fully implemented in the years that followed.

The Donbas war settled into a violent but static conflict between Ukraine and the Russian and separatist forces, with many brief ceasefires but no lasting peace and few changes in territorial control."

Donbass and Crimea are Russian due to Armed Robbery.

#7 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 02:38 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Besides which, the thread article is about China not being the same kind of trusted ally that Russia has in, oh say, North Korea or Syria, lmao.

I mean, you can tell a lot about a country by their, "friends".

#8 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 02:42 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Russia could win this without China. China is just helping a little. Watching their back mostly.

#9 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-04-17 02:56 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

It definitely can't win without China. You can't run an massive infantry swarm without socks.

#10 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-04-17 03:15 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Ukraine couldn't win this WITH NATO behind them and Sanctions on Russia.

It looks a little late to push the Russians out at this point.

Partition was good enough for Serbia. NATO forced that.

Now they get to taste the bitterness of defeat themselves.

Of course a miracle could happen...Ukraine could regain all of their lost territory and peace could prevail after that.

But it's not very likely.

Most likely, Ukraine will become a landlocked basket case and liability for the West.

They will be Peons to the Western alliance. In debt and impoverished.

A source of unrest in Western Europe.

#11 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-04-17 03:30 PM | Reply | Funny: 1


So... have you put your name into the hat for Republican Speaker of the House?

'Cause you and them are best buddies on surrendering Ukraine to an invading force.

But hey, "partition Ukraine" may be your best Neville Chamberlain imitation yet.

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 03:43 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#11 ... Most likely, Ukraine will become a landlocked basket case and liability for the West. ...

Which means that Pres Putin will have failed in his unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country.

Pres Putin has said that Ukraine should not exist, that Ukraine is a part of Russia.

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-17 03:57 PM | Reply

@#11 ... Ukraine couldn't win this WITH NATO behind them ...

Thanks to the Putin wing of the Republican Party, US is failing miserably in its support for Ukraine.

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-17 03:58 PM | Reply

Most likely, Ukraine will become a landlocked basket case and liability for the West.

#11 | POSTED BY EFFETEPOSER AT 2024-04-17 03:30 PM | REPLY

Plenty of rich landlocked country. The EU will pour investment into it and it will prosper and be extremely rich compared to the area that Russia ends up retaining, which will always be extremely poor.

#15 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-04-17 04:06 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

You Wish. The Donbass was the most economically important part of Ukraine.

That's why they want it back so bad.

#16 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-04-17 05:12 PM | Reply

"Vladimir Putin's false war claims

Shortly before launching a full-scale war on Ukraine, Vladimir Putin outlined his reasons for the attack. Russia, he said, must "defend itself" and "denazify" Ukraine.

Much of this is false.

Putin's statement is a propaganda narrative that lacks any basis.

Putin uses the term denazification, which refers to the Allies' policy for Nazi Germany after World War II. They wanted to rid the country of Nazi influences and remove incriminated individuals from their posts.

However, the comparison with Ukraine is wrong, Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), told DW:

"This talk of Nazism in Ukraine is completely out of place," he said.

"The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is a Russian-speaking Jew who won the last presidential election by a huge margin against a non-Jewish Ukrainian candidate."

While there are far-right groups in Ukraine, Umland said, they are relatively weak compared to those in many European countries.

"We had a united front of all radical right-wing parties in the last parliamentary elections in 2019 where they won 2.15% of the vote."

Ulrich Schmid, professor for Russian culture and society at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, describes Putin's claim as "a perfidious insinuation."

It is true that there were individual far-right groups during the Euromaidan protests in 2013 and 2014. Today, however, they play a subordinate role, said Schmid, who researches nationalism in Eastern Europe.

"They exist, but in Russia itself there are at least as many far-right groups as in Ukraine."


#17 | Posted by Corky at 2024-04-17 05:35 PM | Reply

@#16 ... That's why they want it back so bad. ...

That's one of the reasons why Pres Putin wants all of Ukraine so badly.

The industrial east and the agriculturally rich central

But his quest has backfired on Pres Putin.

Now, the EU is stronger and more united. NATO's border with Russia has approximately doubled. Western investment in Russia's economy has not only dwindled, but in some cases, reversed. Reducing an economic cooperation that was beginning to emerge between the West and Russia.

As it stands now, it looks, at best for Pres Putin, that he has lost. That he will have to settle for a small portion of the territory that he had hoped to annex.

And his few-day war is now, how many years long?

#18 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-17 05:51 PM | Reply

As usual Efeteliar lies! donbas is not Russia, it's obviously Ukraine and the thousands of Ukrainians fighting and dying to repdl the Russian invaders is evidence of fhat. Is Efete getting a monthly subsidy from Putin? Me thinks obviously so! But hey Efeteliar, your English skills almost hide your Russian sentence structure, but not completely. What parf gives you away?
Wouldn't you like to know? No one is going to tell you!

#19 | Posted by Danni at 2024-04-19 10:24 AM | Reply

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