@#1 ... They can't predict the weather accurately over the span of a week much less 3-4 months ahead of time. ...

Last year's hurricane predictions turned out to be pretty good.

One thing to keep in mind... hurricanes are heat engines. They thrive on the warm, moist layer of atmosphere just above the ocean's surface. That is what feeds them.

The warmer the ocean is, the warmer and more moist that layer of air becomes.

So, the warmer ocean does not necessarily make more hurricanes. But the hurricanes that do fire up tend to intensify more quickly and more severely because their heat engine is being fed by that warmer, more moist layer of atmosphere just above the surface of the ocean.

@#3 ... Last year NOAA predicted ...

Another thing to keep in mind when looking at these predictions, is that there is nearly always a "odds percentage" associated with the prediction.

The cited BBC article doesn't show it, but the Axios article in #4 does...

... By the numbers: The NOAA is forecasting the season will bring 85% odds of an above normal season, with 17-25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. ...

So... in their prediction NOAA is saying there's a 15% chance they may be incorrect.