As an investment professional focused on commercial real estate I've been saying for more than two years that there will be no recession. What I see nationally is a healthy economy that has shaken off the shock of Covid-related issues (e.g., whip-saw of employment highs and lows, the negative effect of just in time' inventory management strategies, government stimulus, etc.) and has steadied itself with continued positive outlook.

Funny that so many MAGA kooks, when asked, report that they are employed in small business, often a business they created. Weak economies punish small businesses. That these red-hat knobs can make a living working for themselves is a clear indication of the strength of the US economy.

Real estate is still a challenging sector-those with low interest rates don't want to see and give up their great mortgages. Builders can get financing but not as much leverage as previously. Workers have moved out of this employment sector to more stable work. Demand for housing is still strong. The wife and I just bought a new house in Ohio, and quickly sold our house in Okiehomie. My work will hold me here for a while, so we are renting in one place and owning in another"with the home owned free and clear. There are plenty of homes for sale in OKC and in other markets-plenty ...

Memo to Noles: except for VA and FHA loans, residential mortgages are not assumable. The bond guys who buy RMBS paper focus on prepayment speed' among other things, and do not want the paper they hold to be negatively affected by below market loans that will not go away ...