Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision | Drudge Retort

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Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision

(Bloomberg) -- US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government's preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated " about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer " and perhaps more so " than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.

Posted by lfthndthrds at 09:46 AM | 19 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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'There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer " and perhaps more so " than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.'

Cant see the final until after the election. I'm guessing this is what Kamala is saying shes going to fix.. Looks like the fix is already in.

#1 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-08-20 10:03 AM | Reply

Looks like the fix is already in.

#1 | POSTED BY LFTHNDTHRDS

Trump can always try that armed revolt someone can really shoot him in.

#2 | Posted by Zed at 2024-08-20 10:21 AM | Reply

"There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure,"

Caveats? We don't need no stinking caveats!

501,000 is as good as a million I tells ya!

#3 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-08-20 10:32 AM | Reply

Let's say you are right.

We are STILL averaging 158,000 jobs a month.

That's pretty damn good.

And potentially part of the problem is not enough workers to fill jobs.

#4 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-08-20 10:36 AM | Reply

#4 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-08-20 10:36 AM | Reply | Flag:

"The final numbers are due early next year"

#5 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-08-20 10:56 AM | Reply

The economy is still recovering from 4 years of Trump and republican policies.

The trillion dollar tax cut for billionaires isn't helping.

#6 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-08-20 11:00 AM | Reply

#4 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-08-20 10:36 AM | Reply | Flag:
"The final numbers are due early next year"
#5 | Posted by lfthndthrds

And even IF the absolute worst comes to pass and it's revised down a million jobs...

We still have:
A) 158,000 jobs per month
B) Not enough damn people to work them all

#7 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-08-20 12:50 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

July 24, 2024

Right now, the latest data shows that we have 8.1 million job openings in the U.S. but only 6.8 million unemployed workers.

www.uschamber.com

#8 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-20 02:25 PM | Reply

As if I believe that nonsense. You are still giving this administration credit for creating jobs when it was merely people returning to work after COVID. It's dishonest.

#9 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-08-20 02:35 PM | Reply

#9

Dumbass say what?

April 3, 2024

The overall number of jobs rose above pre-pandemic levels in June 2022 and in December 2023 was 5.0 million jobs higher than in February 2020.

www.cbpp.org

#10 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-20 02:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

this bodes well for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates!

#11 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-20 02:54 PM | Reply

#10 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-20 02:53 PM | Reply | Fla

Trust the numbers... LMAO No thank you. Especially now that I have to wait until the election is over and gone before we can see the final number of lies.

That's what I say to dumbasses.

#12 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-08-20 04:03 PM | Reply

Especially now that I have to wait until the election is over and gone before we can see the final number of lies.

So TRUE! 162 lies and distortions in a news conference in 64 minutes.

#13 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-20 05:43 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

this bodes well for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates!
#11 | POSTED BY YAV

How so? My understanding is only when wages and employment are up would they consider it.

April 3, 2024
The overall number of jobs rose above pre-pandemic levels in June 2022 and in December 2023 was 5.0 million jobs higher than in February 2020.
www.cbpp.org
#10 | POSTED BY TONYROMA

The jobs reports have all been downgraded since the time of this release.

We also know payrolls are up by 6.2 million since May of 2022, but full time employment up only 264 thousand.

My guess is "jobs" is both partime and full time in your articles numbers.

We also know most fulltime jobs went to non-native born (including newcomers). Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the month of May shows that foreign-born workers in the United States gained 637,000 jobs year-over-year, while native-born workers lost roughly 299,000.

Also
No wonder Americans view economy so terribly: they aren't the ones w/ the jobs; native-born employment is not only millions below pre-pandemic trend, but even below pre-pandemic level, while millions more foreign workers are employed today than Feb '20, and back to trend:
x.com

#14 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-08-20 06:17 PM | Reply

So TRUE! 162 lies and distortions in a news conference in 64 minutes.
#13 | POSTED BY LyinYAV

Was this Biden last night? He was pretty bad with the lies.

#15 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-08-20 06:17 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

How so? My understanding is only when wages and employment are up would they consider it.

Your understanding is incorrect on both points. This indicates you have no clue why the Fed raised interest rates. You should educate yourself prior to posting. Education means finding out the actual information and truth, not looking for any source no matter how obscure that will make you feel smart, or that you had a "point."

You can start by clicking the link I provided on the 162 lies and distortions. Or you can keep trying to paint me a liar with your idiotic nick-name. You're as brainless and childish as your orange hero, tRump.

#16 | Posted by YAV at 2024-08-20 06:23 PM | Reply

Your understanding is incorrect

It's 1LumpyShht, his understanding of everything is incorrect.

He's gets all his news from Musk's X account.

#17 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-08-20 06:25 PM | Reply

native-born employment is not only millions below pre-pandemic trend, but even below pre-pandemic level

Are you really this effing stupid? Ever heard of Baby Boomers?

In the third quarter of 2020, about 28.6 million Baby Boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - reported that they were out of the labor force due to retirement.

This is 3.2 million more Boomers than the 25.4 million who were retired in the same quarter of 2019.

Baby Boomers taking early retirement was one of the factors that contributed to the worker shortage after the pandemic, which was so severe that there were two open positions for every person seeking work in 2022.

www.pewresearch.org

Of course there are more foreign-born workers today than before the pandemic. There aren't enough American workers to replace the 76 million Boomers who are or either soon will be retiring.

#18 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-20 06:51 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I posted a similar article yesterday (removed for some reason) before the coming re-statement was in the mainstream news based on the prior state of California restatement which wiped out almost all gains in the state from 2023.

This is big news because a restatement of this magnitude does not happen and it is not anticipated for prior years so no articles front run it to try to take out the sting. However, as EVERYONE knows the government is now lying about the employment numbers (which is why the 'perception' of the economy is bad vs. the Biden stats) so we have this unprecedented pre-release on the news.

Here are the stats again - prior to this coming 1M correction.

Full time employment in 134.8M in June 2023, 133.7M, a drop of 1M in the last year.
Full time employment pre-pandemic of 131.7M in Dec 2019 vs. 133.7M now - a theoretical gain of 2M prior to the correction.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Making matters worse - we allowed in 10M+ illegals in the last 4 years - meaning, for the Americans living here in 2019, YES - there ARE WAY LESS JOBS FOR YOU than there were 4 years ago. This 'perception' of the economy being worse is not just the perception - it is the reality.

I love that this correction will be posted during the DNC astroturf convention.

#19 | Posted by Claudio at 2024-08-20 08:05 PM | Reply

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