It Could Well Be a Blockbuster Hurricane Season

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Atlantic hurricane season does not begin for another eight weeks, but we are deep in the heart of hurricane season prediction season.

Posted by LampLighter at 11:30 PM | 26 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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... On Thursday, the most influential of these forecasts was issued by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane scientist at Colorado State University. To put a fine point on it, Klotzbach and his team foresee an exceptionally busy season in the Atlantic basin, which encompasses the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

"We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active," Klotzbach wrote in his forecast discussion.

The Colorado State forecast calls for 23 named storms, more than 50 percent higher than a typical season of 14.4 named storms; and 11 hurricanes, above a normal total of seven. Additionally, the forecast predicts that the season's accumulated cyclone energy"a summation of the duration and intensity of storms across the whole basin"will be 70 percent greater than normal. If the forecast is accurate, the year 2024 would rank among the top 10 most active Atlantic hurricane seasons in a century and a half of records. ...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-07 12:25 AM | Reply

@#1

Emphasis upon prediction.

Time will tell.

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-07 12:25 AM | Reply

@#2 ... Emphasis upon prediction. ...

Stated a little differently...

Yesterday the forecast was for a 10% chance of an aftershock here with a magnitude of 4.0 or greater.

Guess what, it happened.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-07 01:43 AM | Reply

Conditions look pretty ripe. Be interesting to see where they track.

#4 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-04-07 01:46 AM | Reply

@#4 ... Conditions look pretty ripe. Be interesting to see where they track. ...

Yeah, the warm Atlantic Ocean, combined with the low shear winds of a possibly developing El Nino, well that's not a good combination.

But, as you note, time will tell...

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-07 01:54 AM | Reply

Last year there was balance in The Force.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-04-07 02:02 AM | Reply

My friend in Boca Raton is going to head north for the season after hearing about the elevated chances this year.

#7 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-04-07 02:03 AM | Reply

So, how do I invest in hurricanes destroying Florida?

#8 | Posted by snoofy at 2024-04-07 03:36 AM | Reply

SNOOFY

Hurricanes in South Florida have a way of bringing communities together regardless of for whom they voted. In my case (I live in a semi-rural horse community) everybody with a pickup truck, a trailer hitch, a tractor and a chain saw poured out to help each other.

I would have kicked myself for missing the experience of neighbors helping neighbors. Nobody was playing the hero. We just went to work at daybreak every day until we got the job done.

I remember after one bad hurricane we used our ranch equipment to build a new road around downed power lines so people could get out to buy gas to keep their generators running. Looking back, I don't remember the hard work. I just remember the good feeling.

#9 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-04-07 07:09 AM | Reply

That is pretty much my experience as well. One year I used my camp stove to make spaghetti couple of neighbors were making fun of me but when it was done they were in the group asking if I had extra. Which I did, fed a small apartment building. Other times I've helped clear lawns and roads. For the most part natural disasters have been a positive experience in my life.

Doesn't mean I'm looking forward to any more though :)

#10 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2024-04-07 10:04 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

TAO

There are thousands of people just like us. We jump in to help because it's the right thing to do. It's our nature.

#11 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-04-07 12:44 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

So, how do I invest in hurricanes destroying Florida?
#8 | POSTED BY SNOOFY

Invest in mobile home companies, and short insurers.

Conditions look pretty ripe. Be interesting to see where they track.
#4 | POSTED BY REDIAL

Has there ever been a prediction where they expected the Hurricane season to be a dud?

IOW Isn't every year predicted to be a banner year for
2023 Above normal prediction
www.noaa.gov
2022 Above normal prediction
www.noaa.gov
2021 above normal prediction
www.cruisingworld.com
2020 Above average prediction
www.forbes.com

I could go on but this is too easy to PREDICT. I predict 2025, AND 2026 will be predicted to be an above average hurricane seasons.

Just throwing that out there.

#12 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-04-07 04:51 PM | Reply

One year I used my camp stove to make spaghetti couple of neighbors were making fun of me but when it was done they were in the group asking if I had extra.

This is probably illegal.

#13 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-04-07 04:52 PM | Reply

I predict 2025, AND 2026 will be predicted to be an above average hurricane seasons.

It probably will, until the average catches up with the increased activity due to higher sea surface temperatures.

Last year had very high SSTs but the La Nina tamped down the effects. This year it looks like an El Nino might accelerate the effects.

#14 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-04-07 05:02 PM | Reply

#13

Probably but the cops tend to be focused on other things in the wake of a natural disaster. Like appropriation of non-essential items, profiteering, and you know saving lives in distress. I imagine if someone had called them about my unauthorized spaghetti service or my unauthorized road maintenance they wouldn't have even bothered responding.

I could be wrong and after the next natural disaster I might be posting from prison but that is a risk I'm willing to take.

#15 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2024-04-07 05:04 PM | Reply

Probably but the cops tend to be focused on other things in the wake of a natural disaster.

Hard to get a permit when the office is underwater. :-)

#16 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-04-07 05:12 PM | Reply

We were told the same thing last year as we set record high temps on the Gulf Coast.

#17 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-04-07 10:05 PM | Reply

@#17

2023 Atlantic hurricane season ranks 4th for most-named storms in a year
www.noaa.gov

... The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30, was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a strong El Nino. ...

The 2023 Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in the August updated outlook.

"The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center -- a division of NOAA's National Weather Service. "The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts." ...

#18 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-04-08 11:42 AM | Reply

Are we still supposed to blame the gays for hurricanes?

#19 | Posted by johnny_hotsauce at 2024-04-08 03:55 PM | Reply

They always depend upon projection of bad weather news because the politicized media prefers that narrative. When the outcome turns out differently no one ever hears about it.

#20 | Posted by Robson at 2024-04-08 08:44 PM | Reply

When the outcome turns out differently no one ever hears about it.

Granted, the hurricane stories usually drown out the predictions. See you in November!

#21 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-04-08 08:51 PM | Reply

"What's gonna happen, gonna happen."
Bill Pickett (1870-1932)
Bulldogger

#22 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2024-04-09 07:28 AM | Reply

#20

Brainless idiot.

#23 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-04-09 11:39 AM | Reply

Brainless idiot.

#23 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-04-09 11:39 AM | Reply

Title: "It Could Well" Be Blockbuster Hurricane Season

LegallyGivesHead sees brainless idiots.

#TheSixtsSense !!!!

#24 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-04-09 01:35 PM | Reply

Pay no attention to political polls and climate projections. They ate rarely correct. If they are wrong the left wing owned media will cover it up.

#25 | Posted by Robson at 2024-04-09 06:58 PM | Reply

Pay no attention to political polls and climate projections. They ate rarely correct. If they are wrong the left wing owned media will cover it up.

#25 | Posted by Robson

Pay no attention to election results. If you dont like them the right wing media will just call them fraudulent.

#26 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-04-09 07:18 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1