Trump's Rush to End War Risks Delivering Weak Nuclear Deal

More from the article ...

... With talks on hold amid a tentative ceasefire, the Trump administration is eager to find an alternative to restarting an unpopular war that has roiled markets and drawn criticism from allies, according to people familiar with the administration's thinking, who asked not to be identified without permission to speak publicly. ...

OK, The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement that fmr Pres Obama (and other countries) negotiated with Iran had some quite significant conditions.

For starters, Iran pledged, by signing that agreement, not ever to have nuclear weapons. And Iran also agreed to auditing of that pledge by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), with the IAEA allowed to have unrestricted access anywhere within Iran.

Also, fmr Pres Obama had members of the European Union, and also Russia and China to sign on to the agreement.

Compared to that, how will Pres Trump's apparent "get me out of here" exit from his current Iran war look?

@#2 ... He's going to do Obama's deal again ...

I remain to be convinced that Pres Trump will accomplish the same, or better, deal than the one negotiated by the admin of fmr Pres Obama.

@#6 ... He won't get anything better. ...

Agreed. He has not the patience to enter into the negotiations required. Pres Trump seems to be more inclined to bullying than negotiating. ~Do as I tell you, or you will face the wrath of the US Military.~

...He will, however, claim is it better. It's what he does. ...

Also, agreed.

When has Pres Trump ever admitted that he may have possibly not acted in a beneficial manner?

(struggling to be kind in that prior sentence.)

@#8 he will be lucky to get the deal of Obama's that he tore up ...

Lucky? Or incapable?

My current thoughts are that Pres trump is incapable of negotiating a deal that is at the level of the one the Obama admin negotiated.

For starters, the Obama admin had nuclear scientists participating in the deal discussions to assure the scientific details were correct.

Pres Trump has his son-in-law Mr Kushner and his real-estate buddy (forgot his name) doing the negotiation.

Do they even have a clue about the level of enriching uranium needed for nuclear weapons?

@#9 ... They just chose not to close it so long as no one started a war with them. ...

OK I asked a search engine about the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, with a date restriction that ended in 2024.

This article appeared ...

Trump: If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it's not going to be closed for long' (June 2019)
www.cnbc.com

... President Donald Trump said Friday that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, "it's not going to be closed for long," but he did not elaborate on whether the United States had an obligation to keep open the international shipping gateway, which is critical to the oil industry.

"They're not going to be closing [the strait]," Trump said in response to a hypothetical question during a telephone interview on "Fox and Friends."

"They know it, and they've been told in very strong terms. We want to get them back at the table, if they want to go back," he said, referring to the administration's ongoing efforts to start bilateral negotiations on a new nuclear deal with Iran.

"I'm ready when they are, but whenever they're ready, it's OK. And in the meantime, I'm in no rush. I'm in no rush," he added. ...

@#9

Also ...

Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz (2008)
www.belfercenter.org

... How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense.

If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more.

U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States"even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait.

The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy. ...

@#12 ... The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ...

Wow, that was stated in 2008.

@#15 ... Not much different now. ...

I disagree.

A huge difference between Pres Trump's current stance and what the fmr Pres Obama team negotiated was, among many other things, the participation and approval of nations of the EU, Russia and China in the agreement.

Will Pres Trump be able to pull in a similar number of other nations? Or will he be continuing to go it alone?

@#17 ... I was referring to the effects of Iran closing Hormuz. ...

Apologies. I discerned a different view from the comment.

Thanks for the follow-up.

And, yeah, I agree with your comment.