Maybe There Is Progress Toward Ending the Iran War

Axios is reporting a scoop that a one-page memorandum of understanding agreed to by the U.S. and Iran may be close. Among other provisions, Iran would "agree" to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (but wouldn't give up the enriched uranium it has now) and the U.S. would agree to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds. Both sides would then remove all restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

If this report is true, and if it is ultimately signed by both sides, we would be back to the status quo ante except that Iran would get all its frozen funds back ("pallets of cash") and the U.S. would get a vague promise (that Iran probably has no intention of keeping) that Iran won't enrich any more uranium for some period of time. If this is indeed the deal, any objective observer would score it as...

..."Iran won the war." It got back all its frozen funds in return for a promise it has no intention of honoring, while also learning valuable lessons about leveraging Hormuz and, as a bonus, causing the U.S. to waste tens of billions of dollars.

Of course, Trump will tell his base that this was one of the greatest victories in all of history, greater than Marathon, Gaugamela, Hastings and Agincourt combined. His base will swallow it whole, largely because they think Marathon is a foot race and they have never heard of the others.

So why would Trump accept what is basically a defeat? Because gas prices are going way up and with them, the Republicans' chances of holding the House and Senate are going way down. That's all he cares about. Well, actually, what he probably really cares about is his own approval rating, but that is being dragged down by the Iran War, too. Either way, an end to the war is about the only card he has left to play. So, if Trump turns tail and runs, you can't be too surprised. But again, this is all very preliminary. (V)