Hertling: Swagger Isn’t a Strategy

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Confidence is essential in combat, but swagger is dangerous because it tempts leaders into believing they already know what will happen, or how a battle or war will end. The enemy always gets a vote. Swagger may energize political supporters and produce memorable television clips, but it is not strategy. Strategy begins with a clear understanding of the enemy, realistic assessments of what military force can accomplish, and enough humility to recognize that wars rarely unfold according to plan. More than two decades after learning that lesson in southern Iraq, I still remind myself never to predict the outcome of a war while the enemy is still fighting. Secretary Hegseth and President Trump would be well served to remember that lesson today.

Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 08:12 AM | 3 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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The issue is whether political leaders have mistaken tactical accomplishments for strategic success and then proclaimed victory before the campaign has achieved its political objectives.

History repeatedly warns against that temptation. When it was thought that the Nazi army was defeated, they launched the Ardennes offensive. The Taliban survived twenty years of military pressure, only to become the government of Afghanistan again. ISIS regenerated after losing its territorial caliphate. Hamas and Hezbollah have continued fighting despite enormous losses. Muqtada al-Sadr eventually exchanged the battlefield for the halls of parliament. Enemies adapt because they have to, and because often survival is their definition of victory.

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"Hubris is an incurable American disease. As incurable as the military-industrial machine that keeps coming up with the armaments that make wars seem like slam dunks, but which last for decades; wars that are fought by a very small percentage of the population and, regular effusive acknowledgement of veterans notwithstanding, can be ignored for years."
Don Watson, Enemy Within: American Politics in the Time of Trump

#1 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2026-07-23 08:17 AM | Reply

Trump thinks that because he's winning all the battles in Iran, he's winning the war. But he isn't even winning all the battles. As for "strategy" versus tactics, forget about it.

The man is lost in this emotional/cognitive soup. His insanity and incapacity are backed up by a lot of cowardly men who frankly would not be recognized as being Americans three generations back.

#2 | Posted by Zed at 2026-07-23 08:33 AM | Reply

Language is important.

The word "mafia" itself comes from the Sicilian term for "swagger" or "bravado."

From the article: "Hamas and Hezbollah have continued fighting despite enormous losses."

As did the Viet Minh and then the Viet Cong in South Vietnam after the 1954 demarcation.

Irish casualties accumulated over the centuries in their resistance against the British. Probably ~50,000 Irishmen died fighting John Bull between 1800 and 1923.

Algerian resistance casualties fighting French occupation from 1830 to 1962 = ~5.6 million

Resistance is part of the name HAMAS, which is a portmanteau like the German words STALAG and GESTAPO, or the Russian term GULAG; none of these words existed before 1900.

Hamas = "Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya"

When I used the term "muqawama" (resistance) in Iraqistan or Pashtunistan, my bosses hated it.

I also used the term "US occupation" which further irritated them.

Around the time of the "Surge," I said "Oh, we're gonna flood Iraq with more of our boys to stop the Intifada."

I was never going to make Colonel (O-6) anyway.

The USIC estimated there were about 10,000 to 15,000 Hamas resistance fighters in Oct 2023 out of a total population of two million Palestinians in Gaza, an area the size of Philadelphia PA.

The Lancet UK estimates the Israeli Death Forces (IDF) liquidated over 75,000 Palestinians in Gaza since 7 Oct 2023.

#3 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-07-23 02:07 PM | Reply