Thursday, February 27, 2025

Jobless Claims Spike

First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose much more than expected last week, a likely indication of some "noisy" data, but also a potential worrisome hint that cracks may be forming in America's long-solid labor market.

Posted by reinheitsgebot at 06:30 PM | 27 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

Here comes the Trumpcession.

#1 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-27 11:13 AM

No one could have predicted....

#2 | Posted by Corky at 2025-02-27 11:25 AM

The canary is dead. Time to leave the mine.

#3 | Posted by Zed at 2025-02-27 11:32 AM

And all well here from the MAGA idiots are sarcastic things like duhhhh I ThOuGhT POtuZ dUhZenTz AfFecTz DuH EcOnoMieZ?!!'

#4 | Posted by jpw at 2025-02-27 11:45 AM

The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since 2000, higher than during the Financial Crisis, higher than during COVID

bsky.app

#5 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-27 12:29 PM

"cracks may be forming in America's long-solid labor market"

Republicans voted for those cracks.
Republicans say those cracks are good for America.

#6 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-02-27 12:41 PM

Trumpers on cracks!

#7 | Posted by Corky at 2025-02-27 12:57 PM


No one could have predicted....
#2 | POSTED BY CORKY

BS I said it was coming back when Snoofy was arguing that inflation was "transitory".

#8 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-02-27 01:11 PM

Corky is a crack!

#9 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-02-27 01:12 PM

IAMRUNT is an orc-loving deplorable.

#10 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-27 01:15 PM

said it was coming back when Snoofy was arguing that inflation was "transitory".

#8 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

Saying the same thing for four years then smugly claiming you're "right" when it finally happens doesn't make you smart, idiot.

You were wrong for over 1,300 days and finally found a nut thanks to your POS "President."

#11 | Posted by jpw at 2025-02-27 01:18 PM

This is what Deplorable Trumping MAGAts wanted.

Rampant unemployment and inflation.

Get ready for the breadlines.

#12 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-02-27 01:21 PM

Hold on to your butts, we're just getting started

#13 | Posted by hamburglar at 2025-02-27 01:21 PM

Get ready for the breadlines.

Posted by ClownShack at 2025-02-27 01:21 PM | Reply

At the rate we are going we will just have lines without the bread. Just sayin

#14 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2025-02-27 01:24 PM

"arguing that inflation was "transitory".

Transitory, like it would go back down to historical averages?

"The current US inflation rate chart shows the monthly and annual inflation rates from January 2025 to the latest available data. As of January 2025, the monthly inflation rate was 0.5%, and the annual inflation rate was 3.0%."

#15 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-02-27 01:24 PM

#8

I worry about 1NumbNut... really I do. He must be shell shocked by all the comments that fly over his head SO fast. Perhaps it keeps the fleas offa his head, though.

#16 | Posted by Corky at 2025-02-27 02:32 PM

The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since 2000, higher than during the Financial Crisis, higher than during COVID

bsky.app

#5 | Posted by reinheitsgebot

THIS. Companies are all going into recession or even depression plans. Cuts and layoffs everywhere. I have said it before my company is a manufacturing bell weather. When our orders drop we know planned production is slated to decrease or even cease. Uncertainty destroys economies and businesses learned a lot about upheaval events in the past 25 years. This is both unnecessary and unpredictable upheaval. I personally believe it is the plan to destroy this country.

#17 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2025-02-27 02:55 PM

"Companies are all going into recession or even depression plans"

This question was raised on our last leadership call. What is the leadership plan for recession? LOL.

Another question was, are we ditching DEI. We are not. But we can't call it "DEI" any more because of the Executive Order laden with material consequences for engaging in diversity, equality, and inclusion. So instead we will pursue setting aside our differences to come together and celebrate our individual talents. Or whatever -------- the lawyers say is okay.

#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-02-27 03:01 PM

Josh Marshall
@joshtpm.bsky.social
Remembering how a lot of smart folks were saying Ds were F'd because Trump would come in and just ride Biden's humming economy and claim all the great numbers as his own. Well ...

bsky.app

#19 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-27 04:29 PM

Corky is a crack!

#9 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT AT 2025-02-27 01:12 PM | REPLY | FLAG:

Pot

#20 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2025-02-27 04:54 PM

Inflation up.

Unemployment up.

Layoff up.

Consumer confidence down.

It's almost like he is the king of bankruptcies.

#21 | Posted by Nixon at 2025-02-27 05:47 PM

The canary is dead. Time to leave the mine.
#3 | Posted by Zed at 2025-02-27 11:32 AM

Do you smell ginger? Probably only if you have red hair.

Another artifact from mining using slaves.

#22 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2025-02-27 08:35 PM

Recessions are typically lead by consumer confidence and spending. Recent signs are negative in these measures. There is a tremendous amount of headline noise regarding layoffs, some of which are the normal course of business and some (as we are seeing with the attempted termination of federal employees) is not. Capital markets are going bearish, and calling for less growth--the S&P 500 is now negative for the year, and Treasury yields (i.e., the 10-yr UST) have fallen 30bp in the past month, with no input from governmental or Fed actions. Consumer inflation is up, and will remain up for some time. For the Tech Bros and under-30 crowd, there is plenty of pain--Bitcoin is down 23-25% so far this year, and Tesla stock is down 35% from Inauguration Day, so the youngsters (and Leon) are getting a good cracking.

My concern is that the present administration has taken its eye completely off the economy and economic signals and the inputs to economic performance. They will not re-focus on such matters until it is too late. I'll bet on a recession in the US by 4Q2025. Clip and save...

#23 | Posted by catdog at 2025-02-28 09:48 AM

#21 yup and people like lfthnds^*%for brains think they're not the f*^+ed up ones.

#24 | Posted by jpw at 2025-02-28 10:02 AM

"Recessions are typically lead by consumer confidence and spending."

Firing tens of thousands of government workers has a positive impact on consumer confidence and spending.
--Republicans

#25 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-02-28 11:12 AM

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

www.atlantafed.org

Nice werk, bankruptcy-prone dotard.

#26 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-28 11:41 AM

In related news:

Man Puzzled over New Limp after Shooting Himself in the Foot

#27 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-02-28 11:49 AM

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