The world economy could face a crash similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s unless the U.S. rows back on its plans to impose steep tariffs on imports, a senior official at the International Chamber of Commerce warned.
For your planning purposes, thanks to the useless pile of human feces and business moron we call Trump, the 21st Century version of the Great Depression will start Thursday. At about eight o'clock.
-- Keith Olbermann (@olbermann.bsky.social) March 4, 2025 at 1:16 PM
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Tariff Man:
Investors and consumers expected President Donald Trump to be a pro-business billionaire. What they got instead was Tariff Man.
Everyone should have seen this coming. Trump often talked about tariffs on the campaign trail. He also threatened tariffs after he was elected. Then, he threatened more tariffs after he was sworn in. And yet, investors " like everyone else " weren't sure how seriously to take those warnings until this week.
"They're believing him more now," said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. "He finally shot the hostage."
Trump's move to shatter supply chains across North America is a stunning development, no matter how foreseeable, and it's changing the U.S. outlook fast. The U.S. economy was not entirely out of the inflation woods when Trump took office, but steady consumer spending and a low unemployment rate normally provide a healthy buffer against smaller economic shocks.
But throwing new tariffs on top of broader policy uncertainty and potential economic ripple effects from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency will mean a hit to growth. The question is how large of a hit it will ultimately be.
Are the tariffs Pres Trump has placed upon Canada and Mexico violating the law, i.e., the treaty (USMCA) he himself signed during his first term?
Is the USMCA really "The Best Trade Deal Ever"? (December 18, 2019)
www.milkenreview.org
... What did three years of sturm und drang achieve? Little of note, in economic terms, but definitely something in political terms. Trump tweeted:
[USMCA] will be the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA. Good for everybody -- Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions -- tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country's worst Trade Deal, Nafta!
Trump has often found that making the same assertion repeatedly gives it a sheen of verisimilitude. ...
@#19 ... Chaos. ...
Yeah, as I have posted a few times in the past ...
Intentional chaos or incompetence.
I seem to be agreeing with the chaos aspect. But, at this point, I have to say, only a 60/40 agreement.
... I used to point out if HP opens at 87, stays at 87, and closes at 87, nobody makes any money. It's the swings where fortunes are made or lost.
The first time around, Trump and his minions manipulated the strong dollar weaker, and (no doubt) bet the markets would move that way.
Now he's realized that's a pittance, compared to futures markets...when you already know the outcome and the timing. ...
Whoa, that's a lot to digest ... :)
Let me take one item at a time ...
... The first time around, Trump and his minions manipulated the strong dollar weaker ...
Hasn't Pres Trump said he wants a weak dollar?
Trump Wants the Dollar to Be Mighty But Weak. It Makes No Sense.
www.barrons.com
... President Donald Trump's views on the role and level of the U.S. dollar recall a famous claim by the novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald. "The test of a first-rate intelligence," Fitzgerald wrote, "is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Assuming the president's policy hyperactivity is evidence of functioning, we are witnessing a first-rate intelligence in action.
Either that or a devastating disproof of Fitzgerald's claim.
Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have, for some years, been outspoken in support of a weaker dollar ...
Let's start there ....
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