Tariff Man:

Investors and consumers expected President Donald Trump to be a pro-business billionaire. What they got instead was Tariff Man.

Everyone should have seen this coming. Trump often talked about tariffs on the campaign trail. He also threatened tariffs after he was elected. Then, he threatened more tariffs after he was sworn in. And yet, investors " like everyone else " weren't sure how seriously to take those warnings until this week.

"They're believing him more now," said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. "He finally shot the hostage."

Trump's move to shatter supply chains across North America is a stunning development, no matter how foreseeable, and it's changing the U.S. outlook fast. The U.S. economy was not entirely out of the inflation woods when Trump took office, but steady consumer spending and a low unemployment rate normally provide a healthy buffer against smaller economic shocks.

But throwing new tariffs on top of broader policy uncertainty and potential economic ripple effects from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency will mean a hit to growth. The question is how large of a hit it will ultimately be.