NOAA: 'Super El Nino' May Be Historic

Yup.

Historic may be an understatement.

More from the cited article ...

... The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Nio will continue to strengthen through the end of the year [Figs. 6-7-8]. During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Nio events dating back to 1950 (+2.5C or more for a 3-month RONI value).

With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nio are larger, but they are not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nio is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. ...

@#2

But do note that the "historic event" forecast comes with a 69% chance attached to it.

That aspect is usually dropped from the headlines ...

My observation (and take it as that and that only) ...

Usually in the summer, when August comes around, the grass in the yard has gone dormant and turned brown because of the lack of rain. I had to mow it maybe once every two or three weeks.

The water reservoirs were getting low.

OK, for the past few years, that has changed.

A couple days ago I drove past a local water reservoir. It was full. To the point of over-flowing the dam that creates the reservoir. Quite odd for this time of the year.

And my yard, I am having to mow the grass weekly. The grass is still a vibrant green and growing like springtime.

Something has changed. ...

@#4 ... the 100-year-storm that happens every few years now. ...

Why 'Hundred-Year' Weather Events Are Happening More Than Once Every 100 Years (2025)
time.com

... Environmental scientists have gotten so good at reading weather history that they can characterize some severe storms or floods as likely to occur in a given area only once in 100 years"or even 500 years or a thousand years.

That's where the oxymoron comes in. As climate change leads to greater meteorological volatility, the one in 100 -- or 500 or 1,000 -- year events are occurring twice or three times or more in those windows. Since 1999, there have been nine storms along the North Carolina coast that qualify as hundred or thousand year events.

From 2015 to 2019, one suburb of St. Louis experienced three major floods, two of which met the criteria for hundred-year events.

One study by the Montreal-based carbon removal project Deep Sky calculates that the frequency of deadly hurricanes has jumped 300%, with 100-year storms now forecast to occur once every 25 years. ...