Fifty-six percent of Americans in the national survey say she has done an excellent or good job running her campaign, compared with 41% who say the same for Trump. Most, instead, rate Trump's campaign negatively.
More from the poll results...
... Notably, 93% of Democrats and 56% of independents rate Harris' campaign positively, as do 24% of Republicans in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. Fewer across groups see Trump's campaign positively -- 79% of Republicans, 38% of independents and 13% of Democrats. ...
As to running mates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz continues to win a warmer welcome than Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Americans divide essentially evenly, 49%-50%, in confidence that Walz would be qualified to take over as president, while 57% aren't confident that Vance is qualified. And Walz is seen favorably by 42%-31%, while Vance is underwater in favorability, 32%-44%. About a quarter are unready to express an opinion of either.
At the same time, Trump continues to lead on the top concerns in the race, trust to handle the economy in general and inflation in particular, both by 8 points, and by 9 points on the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, albeit a lower-rated issue in importance in previous data. Trump also benefits from the fact that 46% call Harris too liberal -- though, on the other hand, 43% call him too conservative. ...
See PDF for full results.
www.langerresearch.com
Currently Nate Silver has her 14-% below Trump for winning the election.
Don't Trust the Election Forecasts www.politico.com
I'm a political scientist who develops and applies machine learning methods, like forecasts, to political problems. The truth is we don't have nearly enough data to know whether these models are any good at making presidential prognostications. And the data we do have suggests these models may have real-world negative consequences in terms of driving down turnout.
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