Poll: Harris gets No DNC Bounce, But Widens Gap with Women | Drudge Retort

Monday, September 02, 2024

Poll: Harris gets No DNC Bounce, But Widens Gap with Women

Fifty-six percent of Americans in the national survey say she has done an excellent or good job running her campaign, compared with 41% who say the same for Trump. Most, instead, rate Trump's campaign negatively.

Posted by lamplighter at 09:33 PM | 30 COMMENTS | permalink

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More from the poll results...

... Notably, 93% of Democrats and 56% of independents rate Harris' campaign positively, as do 24% of Republicans in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. Fewer across groups see Trump's campaign positively -- 79% of Republicans, 38% of independents and 13% of Democrats. ...

As to running mates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz continues to win a warmer welcome than Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Americans divide essentially evenly, 49%-50%, in confidence that Walz would be qualified to take over as president, while 57% aren't confident that Vance is qualified. And Walz is seen favorably by 42%-31%, while Vance is underwater in favorability, 32%-44%. About a quarter are unready to express an opinion of either.

At the same time, Trump continues to lead on the top concerns in the race, trust to handle the economy in general and inflation in particular, both by 8 points, and by 9 points on the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, albeit a lower-rated issue in importance in previous data. Trump also benefits from the fact that 46% call Harris too liberal -- though, on the other hand, 43% call him too conservative. ...

See PDF for full results.
www.langerresearch.com

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 02:52 PM

Another interesting chart in the poll results is the one that shows the results using registered voters and also likely voters.

Now that Labor Day is here, I would expect more polls to move towards likely voters in their results.

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 02:53 PM

Harris has widened her gap...

#3 | Posted by sentinel at 2024-09-02 04:41 PM

@#3

Yeah.

It looks like the Trump reservoir of support has sprung a leak.

I look forward to the next couple three weeks of polling as more pollsters start turning their focus towards likely voters. The poll article I linked to has a chart showing a comparison of registered voters vs likely voters,

Having said that, I also want to mention something I heard this afternoon...

"Polling often undercounts energy, enthusiasm and intensity of emotion."
- - - Larry Sabato - Univ of Virginia, Dir Center For Politics

That seems to echo what Danforth has been mentioning for weeks now, regarding the enthusiasm for ~annoyed~ (I think he said, pissed-off) women to vote.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 06:01 PM

Trump continues to lead on the top concerns in the race, trust to handle the economy in general and inflation

And this is why Trump will win.

#5 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-09-02 06:27 PM

" That seems to echo what Danforth has been mentioning for weeks now, regarding the enthusiasm for ~annoyed~ (I think he said, pissed-off) women to vote."

Exactly.

Look at every, and I mean EVERY election since Dobbs. Polls have been freakishly off.

KS abortion rights: polls were 47-46; results more like 60-37.

OH, just to rights ON the ballot needed a 60% supermajority. The highest poll I saw was barely over half; it got 62%.

The AL House race where a DEM won, beating the polls, after running on ONE issue.

And most recently, OH06, a +29 Trump district, which the (R) won ... but only by 9 points.

NONE of the polls were accurate.

Want some semblance of accuracy? Add 3-5 points to the Dems numbers, especially in the 10 states with women's rights on the ballot.

Never underestimate P.O.'d women!

#6 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-09-02 07:04 PM

" Trump continues to lead on the top concerns in the race, trust to handle the economy in general and inflation in particular"

I read my wife a tidbit I saw yesterday:

For women under 45, abortion rights has become the top issue.

#7 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-09-02 07:08 PM

Top Trump Volunteer Says New Hampshire Not in Play

www.bostonglobe.com

This is just the start.

#8 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-02 07:12 PM

@#8 ... Top Trump Volunteer Says New Hampshire Not in Play ...

Was it recently?

In 2020 Pres Biden won NH by 7%.

#9 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 07:25 PM

Team Dotard seems to disagree with Mr. Mountain's assessment.

www.rawstory.com

#10 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-02 07:31 PM

Dementia DonOLD needs to be put in a home.

#11 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-09-02 09:50 PM

#5

Go ---- yourself, -----.

#12 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-09-02 09:50 PM

@#12

Ya see, that #12 comment has a reference to the comment it is replying to.

That is A Good thing.

;)

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 09:56 PM

@#2 ... Another interesting chart in the poll results is the one that shows the results using registered voters and also likely voters. ...

OK, if you have not yet read the article, here's a summary of my #2 comment...

...
2024 Vote Preference

All adults: Harris - 50%, Trump - 46%
Registered voters: Harris - 50%, Trump - 45%
Likely Voters: Harris - 52%, Trump - 46%
...

As I have noted...

Now that we are at Labor Day, the polls will be starting to move towards Likely Voters, instead of their their prior Registered Voters frame.

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-02 10:31 PM

A Much squishier demographic.

#15 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2024-09-03 04:02 AM

Harris Leads Nationally in the Polling Averages

September 3, 2024 at 6:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The polling averages all show Kamala Harris with a lead:

RealClearPolitics: Harris +1.8 points
538: Harris +3.2 points
Nate Silver: Harris +3.5 points
The Economist: Harris +3.5 points

Putin's smelly bitch is toast.

#17 | Posted by Reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-03 07:25 AM

Daddysfist, Putin's demented bitch is getting flushed a second time.

#20 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-03 08:13 AM

Epstein's wingman is going to get curb stomped.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 48% to 43%.

Also interesting:

In June, 73% of Biden supporters predicted he would win; now 87% of Harris voters say she will, a jump of 14 points.

In June, 88% of Trump supporters said he would win. Now 76% do ' a majority, but a drop of a dozen points.

politicalwire.com

#21 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-03 08:15 AM

Harris has widened her gap...
#3 | Posted by sentinel

Women gap should max out at three fingers, any more is less flattering.
#16 | Posted by organ_bank

"Why can't we win women voters? The problem must be them, not us."
-GOP

#22 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-09-03 12:34 PM

That seems to echo what Danforth has been mentioning for weeks now, regarding the enthusiasm for ~annoyed~ (I think he said, pissed-off) women to vote."

Exactly.

Look at every, and I mean EVERY election since Dobbs. Polls have been freakishly off.

KS abortion rights: polls were 47-46; results more like 60-37.

OH, just to rights ON the ballot needed a 60% supermajority. The highest poll I saw was barely over half; it got 62%.

The AL House race where a DEM won, beating the polls, after running on ONE issue.

And most recently, OH06, a +29 Trump district, which the (R) won ... but only by 9 points.

NONE of the polls were accurate.

Want some semblance of accuracy? Add 3-5 points to the Dems numbers, especially in the 10 states with women's rights on the ballot.

Never underestimate P.O.'d women!

#6 | POSTED BY DANFORTH

Yeah that he "no convention bounce" is utter --------, coming from the manipulated polling companies and corporate horserace media.

Great post. But your 3-5 points is likely closer to 5-10 points IMHO.
Its going to be over early for Orange Adolf on election night too once Harris wins NC then Florida.

#23 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-09-03 06:51 PM

Currently Nate Silver has her 14-% below Trump for winning the election.

#24 | Posted by BellRinger at 2024-09-04 01:52 PM

Here is a link:

#25 | Posted by BellRinger at 2024-09-04 01:53 PM

RealClearPolitics: Harris +1.8 points
538: Harris +3.2 points
Nate Silver: Harris +3.5 points
The Economist: Harris +3.5 points

#26 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-04 01:55 PM

What Nate Silver actually said...

"And third, I'll work through what will happen if Kamala Harris holds her current position in polls. Hint: she'll eventually become the favorite again. This last part is paywalled."

www.natesilver.net

#27 | Posted by Corky at 2024-09-04 02:00 PM

Because she's awful.

The only reason she has a snowball's chance in hell is the GOP was stupid enough to nominate Trump and that weirdo Vance.

I wouldn't be surprised if overall turnout isn't anywhere near 2020 due to voter apathy.

#28 | Posted by jpw at 2024-09-04 08:20 PM

Currently Nate Silver has her 14-% below Trump for winning the election.

Don't Trust the Election Forecasts www.politico.com

I'm a political scientist who develops and applies machine learning methods, like forecasts, to political problems. The truth is we don't have nearly enough data to know whether these models are any good at making presidential prognostications. And the data we do have suggests these models may have real-world negative consequences in terms of driving down turnout.

#29 | Posted by et_al at 2024-09-04 10:33 PM

@#29 ... Don't Trust the Election Forecasts ...

Absolutely. A correct suggestion.

In my view, the forecasters are looking more for page hits than accuracy in their forecasts.

That is one reason (OK, maybe a major reason) why I often cite the RCP polling here on this most august site.

RCP proffers just the results of the polling, no interpretations. Just the results.

Of course, that then leaves me with trying to interpret those results.

And I come up with opinions like this one I posted...

#30 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-09-04 10:49 PM

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