Sunday, October 06, 2024

Tropical Storm Milton Forecast to Become Hurricane, on Path to Hit Florida

News Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane headed toward Florida with possible impacts to its western coast, the National Hurricane Center said on Saturday.

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"Milton is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night then across the south-central Gulf on Monday and Tuesday before reaching Florida's west coast by the middle of the week, the hurricane center said.

The forecast comes a little more than a week after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and across the Southeast, killing at least 229 people in six states and causing immense destruction."

'

This one is coming in a bit south and east of the last one... right over my head on it's way to Jacksonville looks like right now.

Gracie is going to have to bring her bloomers in offa the line.

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-05 08:29 PM

Gracie is going to have to bring her bloomers in offa the line.

Doubtful. Generally storms this time of the year are interacting with cold fronts as the fronts move west to east. currently we have a front moving across the center of the country and it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't put Helene Milton further to the east.
Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-09-24

#2 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-10-05 08:41 PM

#1 You should be more concerned with RogerS bloomers, St. John's county has been declared a state of emergency and my county has not.

#3 | Posted by gracieamazed at 2024-10-05 08:53 PM

Rogers prefers thongs... everyone knows that!

At least that's what Clowny told me.

#4 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-05 08:56 PM

In reference: #3 | Posted by gracieamazed at 2024-10-05 08:53 PM

People say that you're the reason why your county has been placed in a permanent state of emergency.

At least that's what people say.

#5 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-05 08:57 PM

#4 TMI.

#6 | Posted by gracieamazed at 2024-10-05 09:03 PM

#6

Try to control yourself... I KNOW you can do it!

(Run, Rogers, run!)

#7 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-05 09:07 PM

Yeah, now they have it a Cat 3 heading to Tampa and Orlando.

Who used to mow my lawn. Fine people.

#8 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-05 09:28 PM

now they have it a Cat 3 heading to Tampa and Orlando.

Is "they" the HARRIS/biden administration?

#9 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-10-05 10:01 PM

Odd track for a hurricane.

The feds should at least try to hide that they're driving these things. Before we know it, some low level contractor is gonna drive Hurricane Norm around so the track makes a giant penis in the gulf ...

#10 | Posted by jpw at 2024-10-05 11:13 PM

Seriously, though, we need to stop rebuilding after this ----.

Anything that gets totaled within 500yrds of the beach gets cleared away and the owners compensated that one, single time.

Then it goes back to dunes, mangrove stands, swamp ect and we allow the replenishment of natural barriers.

Want to go to the beach? Drive. Walkways will be maintained to reach the water since they'll be far easier to replace once a year or two.

#11 | Posted by jpw at 2024-10-05 11:17 PM

The Gulf is 86 degrees, warmer than the air.

"It will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland in 2024, tying 2004, 2005, and 1893 for the most hurricanes to make mainland landfall on record."

www.nbcnews.com

#12 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-10-06 05:19 AM

Southern Miami-Dade yesterday our rain gauge hit near the 5-inch mark. Same expected today. And it's tropical rain, heavy and steady.

#13 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2024-10-06 06:34 AM

now they have it a Cat 3 heading to Tampa and Orlando.

Is "they" the HARRIS/biden administration?

#9 | POSTED BY REDIAL

I heard "they" was Zed.

#14 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-10-06 12:09 PM

Supporting a genocide has its consequences.

#15 | Posted by ExpectingReign at 2024-10-06 12:47 PM

Tropical Storm Milton rapidly intensifying, expected to hit Florida as major hurricane
www.fox13news.com

... Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later on Sunday, and the storm could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a "stronger Milton." The NHC says the risk of life-threatening impacts is increasing for parts of the Florida west coast. ...

Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of Milton for 51 Florida counties, including all the counties in the Tampa Bay Area. ...

Milton is expected to reach Florida on Wednesday, but waves of heavy rain are forecast starting Sunday, especially in Central and South Florida.

The National Hurricane Center expects soon-to-be Hurricane Milton to make landfall around the Tampa metro as a Category 3 hurricane. ...


#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-06 01:28 PM

"It will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland in 2024, tying 2004, 2005, and 1893 for the most hurricanes to make mainland landfall on record."

Remember that thread where the NOAA forecast for this hurricane season was a bust?

Well that didn't age well.

#17 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-10-06 01:37 PM

Remember that thread where the NOAA forecast for this hurricane season was a bust?

Well they predicted a minimum of 17 named storms for 2024 and there have only been 13 so they are liars. They also said there would be at least 8 hurricanes and there have only been, well, they got that one right. Then they said there were going to be at least 4 major hurricanes and there have only been, well ok, they called that one too. None of it matters because the climate has always been changing and heavy electric vehicles are going to destroy the planet with tire particles.

#18 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-10-06 02:38 PM

@#18 ... Well they predicted ...

NOAA forecasts extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season (May 2024)
www.axios.com

... By the numbers: The NOAA is forecasting the season will bring 85% odds of an above normal season, with 17"25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. ...

NOAA 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (August 2024)
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

... The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:

- - - 17-24 Named Storms, which includes the 4 names storms recorded thus far.

- - - 8-13 Hurricanes, which includes the 2 hurricanes recorded thus far.

- - - 4-7 Major Hurricanes, which includes the 1 major hurricane recorded thus far.

- - - Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 165%-245% of the median, which includes the approximately 40% of median ACE recorded thus far.
...


Note the change in confidence level from the May to the August forecasts, going from 85% in May to 70% in August.

#19 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-06 03:10 PM

"Hurricane forecast: Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, southwest Florida

Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area. Widespread wind and rain impacts are also coming to northeast, central, and south Florida."

"Milton is drifting east today and will continue moving a little south of due east through Tuesday, when it will pass just north of the Yucatan peninsula.

That is a very unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf hurricane, one reason there remain few if any apt historical comparisons to Milton."

'

"However, Milton will not hook north toward the Panhandle, as a west-to-east-oriented subtropical jet over the Southeastern U.S. will keep the hurricane hustling eastward midweek, even as it gains latitude crossing the southeastern Gulf.

Therefore, Milton is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island, most likely on Wednesday.

Models are nudging a bit back to the south on Sunday after jogging north yesterday, and it is simply too early to pick a landfall point within this range."

www.tallahassee.com

#20 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-06 03:20 PM

#20 Corky

That surge is no joke. Just finished moving my friend out of a waterfront condo in St Pete. She only had 5" inside the place last week, but this surge might fill up the condo this time around. Here's to hoping as models are updated it keeps tracking further south. (Sorry Fort Myers and Sarasota neighbors, it's you or us and I am selfishly hoping it's not Tampa ... so. You. Yeah I'm hoping you get the direct hit.)

#21 | Posted by gavaster at 2024-10-06 05:27 PM

#21

lol... I'm in Horse Country in N central FL now... so the last one missed us to the north and this one will miss us to the south.

We'll get some wind and rain, but here in the middle of the Upper Penis it's usually not so bad.

Comparatively speaking.

Last year 11 people died of random lightening strikes; this is who they were, where they were, and what they were doing on a form:

www.weather.gov

This is coming straight in, unlike most, so not looking forward to seeing the results.

And all the people ruined by Fl's mismanaged gov and insurance companies.... but I repeat myself; the gov here is owned by various corporations, including home AND driver's insurance.

#22 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-06 06:04 PM

Ron DeSantis signs bill scrubbing climate change' from Florida state laws

amp.theguardian.com

Tiny D will be begging for Dark Brandon's help again this week.

#23 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-10-06 08:16 PM

Maybe Biden can get out the Presidential Sharpie and it will all work out for him ...

#24 | Posted by chuffy at 2024-10-06 11:22 PM

Best wishes to all you Floridians. There still seems to be quite a bit of spread among the models regarding both timing and exact location of landfall. But I wouldn't want to be anywhere on the peninsula this week, especially around Tampa Bay.

Further down the road, there is already talk of another disturbance potentially brewing in the Gulf!

#25 | Posted by cbob at 2024-10-07 06:07 AM

That surge is no joke. Just finished moving my friend out of a waterfront condo in St Pete.

A story I'm hearing a lot from folks over in St. Pete. So much damage - and no one's seen anything like it. Now Milton. This is terrifying.

#26 | Posted by YAV at 2024-10-07 08:36 AM

Looks like it's gonna be a doozy.

Went from TS to Cat 4 with 155mph winds in about 24 hours.

#27 | Posted by jpw at 2024-10-07 12:00 PM

What does TFG have to say about this latest storm, likely to finish the job on South Florida?

#28 | Posted by john47 at 2024-10-07 12:08 PM

@#27 ... Went from TS to Cat 4 with 155mph winds in about 24 hours. ...

Live updates: Hurricane Milton strengthens into a Category 5 as Florida begins evacuations
apnews.com

... Milton rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest level, in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday on a path toward Florida.

Milton had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (250 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. ...


#29 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-07 12:38 PM

I saw that it just hit Cat 5.

I think they're expecting it to downgrade before landfall.

Hopefully they're right, but I'm not sure that's gonna do that much to mitigate the storm surge damage to a significant portion of the west coast of FL.

#30 | Posted by jpw at 2024-10-07 12:41 PM

There is still debris lying around from Helene in some areas, which is just more ammo for Milton.

#31 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-07 12:43 PM

It's gonna be a ---- show on the west Florida coast for sure. Police are escorting massive dump trucks/trailers around the beaches trying to haul away as much as possible. They were out late last night, probably working overnight shifts. I have two more houses to board for a friend before hunkering down to wait it out. And I was suppose to close on a Tampa portfolio of houses this Thursday, which is now postponed. Fun times.

#32 | Posted by gavaster at 2024-10-07 12:49 PM

@#30 ... I think they're expecting it to downgrade before landfall. ...

The local NYC forecaster mentioned that there is expected to be some wind shear near the Florida coast, and that wind shear may (she emphasized "may") drop the intensity of Milton a bit.

#33 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-07 12:54 PM

Hurricane Milton Becomes Strongest Atlantic Hurricane In 5 Years With 175 mph Winds

www.youtube.com

We're into forced evacuations in Tampa and elsewhere.

#34 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-07 03:11 PM

And... my county just went from Watch to Warning.

Thanks, Milton!

I guess it's just going to me and my wife, Taylor Swift, without lights for a day or two.

Could be worse. I lived in Naples for 20 years, but I moved north before the Big One about 6 or so years ago.

Then last Christmas I was back there, and with the other storms they've gotten, well some of the beaches, which are all at least in some sense, public, will never be the same or no longer exist.

DJT would be shocked.

#35 | Posted by Corky at 2024-10-07 05:27 PM

Second most powerful Atlantic hurricane.

Climate change doesn't care if you think it is a hoax.

#36 | Posted by Nixon at 2024-10-08 09:37 AM

Second most powerful Atlantic hurricane.

Still not all that large, but predicted to increase in size over the next day or so.

#37 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-10-08 09:52 AM

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