"Hurricane forecast: Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, southwest Florida
Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area. Widespread wind and rain impacts are also coming to northeast, central, and south Florida."
"Milton is drifting east today and will continue moving a little south of due east through Tuesday, when it will pass just north of the Yucatan peninsula.
That is a very unusual direction of movement for a strong Gulf hurricane, one reason there remain few if any apt historical comparisons to Milton."
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"However, Milton will not hook north toward the Panhandle, as a west-to-east-oriented subtropical jet over the Southeastern U.S. will keep the hurricane hustling eastward midweek, even as it gains latitude crossing the southeastern Gulf.
Therefore, Milton is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island, most likely on Wednesday.
Models are nudging a bit back to the south on Sunday after jogging north yesterday, and it is simply too early to pick a landfall point within this range."
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