US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Show

... Summary

- - - ISM nonmanufacturing PMI drops to 49.9, indicating contraction and lowest since June 2024

- - - Tariff uncertainty complicates business planning, affects financial guidance

- - - Supply chain bottlenecks and tariffs drive inflation concerns

The U.S. services sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year in May while businesses paid higher prices for inputs, a reminder that the economy remained in danger of experiencing a period of very slow growth and high inflation.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 49.9 last month, the first decline below the 50 mark and lowest reading since June 2024, from 51.6 in April. ...

... Key Points

- - - The U.S. economy contracted over the past six weeks as hiring slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, the Fed reported.

- - - On inflation, the report described prices as rising "at a moderate pace and " widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward."

- - - Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth. ...

Did anyone check on S^%*ts?

The S&P Global US Services PMI rose from 53.7 in May from 50.8 in April showing significant strengthening in services. So the ISM and the PMI are now showing completely different things - basically, one is trying to be political and talk down the economy as the Democrats have done for the last 3 months. But, by the real data, it is not working.

rose from 53.7 in May from 50.8 in April

Grok needs to work on grammar.

"#10 | Posted by REDIAL"

I copied and pasted but edited out the 'flash reading' and did not update the "from" to "to" (good catch and a great value add to the conversation), which was 53.2 for the month. So, it improved greatly month over month and even surprised to the upside from the flash reading. All signs of expansion.

" All signs of expansion."

More like signs of stocking up before the schittt hits the fan.

I copied and pasted

No ----.

"More like signs of stocking up before the schittt hits the fan.
#12 | Posted by Danforth"

Stocked up on services? Take your pretend financial analyst skills along with your debunked cosplaying 'tax preparer' skills somewhere they have not already been repeatedly exposed and debunked.

"#13 | Posted by REDIAL"

Thank you again for your great value add for the conversation. I know what I, and I think everyone else on this website really wanted, was a grammar Karen. Thank you for providing this valuable service. It is way, way more important than debating the actual data.

#15 it had nothing to do with grammar, dumbs%^*, and everything to do with you being a worthless pile of disingenuous s%^* where the base assumption is you don't understand or even critically analyze what you're posting.

one is trying to be political and talk down the economy as the Democrats have done for the last 3 months. But, by the real data, it is not working.

Im sure this stupid f^*% is entirely oblivious to the lack of awareness demonstrated in this post.

"#17 | Posted by jpw"

Yes - I don't understand the subject as demonstrated by my comment directly related to the post and showing why it is not a reliable reading by quoting the other statistic globally quoted on the US service sector - not to mention the one that is more closely aligned with the official government statistics on economic activity.

Just because you have a cush job washing beakers for $15/hour - does not mean you are informed to even talk on this subject.

@#15 ... I think everyone else on this website really wanted, ...

Really, now your current alias seems to think it speaks for "everyone else on this website?"

@#18 ... Im sure this stupid f^*% is entirely oblivious to the lack of awareness demonstrated in this post. ...

Maybe, maybe not.

But as a lame deflection attempt, will it work?

"It's got a nutty flavor."
-ScottS after eating out of Trump's diaper.

Trump's ruining the America, stupid.

"Trump's ruining the America, stupid.
#22 | Posted by ClownShack"

We will have to wait and see if the grammar Karen Redial will come to comment on this.

@#22 ... Trump's ruining the America ...

I'm not there yet.

My view is that America still has the grit to last through what Pres Trump has been doing so far.

The Justice branch stepping up to Constitutional Checks and Balances in A Good Thing, in spite of the threats.

My concern does, however, rise when I look ahead to the next years of his term.

We will have to wait and see if the grammar Karen Redial will come to comment on this.
#23 | POSTED BY SCOTTS

Hell, that's possibly the best thing you've ever posted.

Thanks for not wasting our time with your usual paragraphs of nonsense.

@#25 ... Thanks for not wasting our time with your usual paragraphs of nonsense. ...

Yup.

Or, if I may add, just reciting from an apparent list of Pres Putin's talking points.

America still has the grit to last through what Pres Trump has been doing so far.

Only if you believe Trump ever plans on ending his control over America.

We shall all find out.

@#27 ... We shall all find out. ...

I do not disagree.

For some reason this song popped up into my mind ...

Aretha Franklin - Someday We'll All Be Free (1992)
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt ...

genius.com

...
Free
Hang on to the world as it spins around
Just don't let the spin get you down
Things are moving fast
Hold on tight and you will last

Keep your self-respect and your woman and manly pride
Get yourself in gear, keep your stride
Never mind your fears
Never mind 'em, never mind
Brighter days will soon be here
...

" Stocked up on services?"

No, dumfuq, stuff like computers, iPhones, air pods, shoes, and clothing. And I made sure the Sienna and Forester are humming.

I spent almost $10K. For stuff I would've bought over the next year or two. Now I won't. Because tariffs are taxes.

"#30 | Posted by Danforth"

So you stocked up on your cheap Chinese made crap - gotcha. Let me guess, you intend to use these in your 'tax preparer' cosplay. First of all, I doubt you even have a net worth of $10K to spend so your 20% APR on the credit card you used to buy that crap will end up being more expensive than any tariff impact would have been. Great financial work their Buffett.

@#31 ... cheap Chinese made crap ...

If it is, as your current alias states, "cheap Chinese made crap," why are US companies selling that stuff?

Is your current alias stating that US companies are more interested in cost than quality?

If so, well, that may be a whole different thread.

"So you stocked up on your cheap Chinese made crap"

So you think iPhone Pros, MacAir pros, and noise-canceling AirPods are cheap crap?

Won't you look stupid when you pay 30% more when you're in need!

Tariffs are taxes. If America is making ANY money on tariffs, it's because Americans are paying more in taxes.

"First of all, I doubt you even have a net worth of $10K to spend"

Why lie? You look like a child who can't handle reality.

" ... so your 20% APR on the credit card you used to buy that crap will end up being more expensive than any tariff impact would have been."

What kind of financial moron are you? I haven't paid credit card interest in over 40 years. I literally warn folks in my seminars against carrying a balance on a credit card.
Instead , my credit cards pay ME. I use the Costco Cash Card, and a SW miles card, since SW flies to a lot of cities the bride and I like. We average over $100/mo of tax-free cash in rebates and rewards.

Meanwhile, you'll pay 30% more the next time you buy shoes. And you'll happily burn your money ... because Trump!

@#33 ... If America is making ANY money on tariffs, it's because Americans are paying more in taxes. ...

Highly regressive taxes, I might add.

Affecting lower income more than the uber-wealthy, as a percent of income.

Sam Cooke - Chain Gang (1960)
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt ...

genius.com

...
All day long they work so hard
Till the sun is going down
Working on the highways and byways
And wearing, wearing a frown
You hear them moaning their lives away
...

"Highly regressive taxes, I might add. Affecting lower income more than the uber-wealthy, as a percent of income."

The exact reason an income tax was imposed.

And here we are, making the same mistake again.

"#33 | Posted by Danforth"

So you bought $10K in Apple products - like, you purchased 10 Macbook Airs...sure you did? And yes, the iPhone is a utter garbage.

As for my shoes - I buy US made bespoke shoes -------. That is why I don't go to your deep blue -------- cities - I don't want to step on your feces or drug needles and dirty my shoes. Same goes for my clothing.

@#38 ... And yes, the iPhone is a utter garbage. ...

That's not what US consumers seem to think.

backlinko.com

... In the US, iPhones hold a market share of 56.63%. ...

What else yer current trolling aias got?

McDonald's is the top grossing hamburger seller in the US - must mean their product is not garbage compared to In-N-Out or ShakeShack by the logic of some -------- on this website.

#40

You really should let Grok write your posts.

At least it's coherent.

That word salad is garbage.

@#40 ... McDonald's is the top grossing hamburger seller in the US - must mean their product is not garbage ...

All it means is that Americans want more of McDonalds, just like Americans want more of Apple iPhones.

Is it really about product quality (in which, even though I am not an admirer of Apple) Apple seems to do quite well in the ~product quality aspect?~

Or is it about the service provided (in which, even though I am not a fan of McDonald's burgers) McDonald's seems to do quite well in the ~give me a hamburger aspect?~

What is yer point?

@#41 ... You really should let Grok write your posts.

At least it's coherent. ...

So, I'm not the only one who seems to be noticing that?

"#17 | Posted by jpw"
Yes - I don't understand the subject as demonstrated by my comment directly related to the post and showing why it is not a reliable reading by quoting the other statistic globally quoted on the US service sector - not to mention the one that is more closely aligned with the official government statistics on economic activity.
Just because you have a cush job washing beakers for $15/hour - does not mean you are informed to even talk on this subject.
#19 | Posted by ScottS at 2025-06-04 08:48 PM

Is what generated September 29th 2008 the result of policy excellence? Banks received bailouts and the population did not. It took two full years before the unemployment registered 10%, which as we now understand is average 20% behind underemployment.

"Is what generated September 29th 2008 the result of policy excellence?
#44 | Posted by redlightrobot"

No - it was the fault of the government forcing banks to give loans to people that would not otherwise qualify - mainly non-white poor people. Because of this, demand was artificially high - which pushed up housing prices for everyone. Predictably, they failed to make their repayments resulting in mass foreclosures and a major drop in house prices for everyone.

If you want an actual parallel, you are better served by comparing this to the student loan crisis. Again, government gave loans to people that are unlikely to pay it back resulting in mass defaults.

Trump and his tariff policies have literally nothing in common with what you are implying. Further, with the cratering energy prices due to Trump policies and the Saudis running huge deficits, it is likely that we could actually see a bit of deflation in things like food prices or other energy intensive activities.

@#45 ... it was the fault of the government forcing banks to give loans to people that would not otherwise qualify ...

Got evidence of that?

Things that are already generally accepted as facts should not be questioned. It just makes the person asking look dumb and wastes the time of the person responding.

www.investopedia.com

"3. Overheated Housing Market
The overheated housing market before the financial crisis was stoked by unscrupulous lending to unqualified borrowers and the reselling of loans through financial instruments called mortgage-backed securities. Banks bought insurance against those mortgages, creating a house of cards built on a foundation of homebuyers who could not afford them."

" ... unscrupulous lending to unqualified borrowers"

Let me guess: you blame the borrowers.

@#47 ... the financial crisis was stoked by unscrupulous lending to unqualified borrowers ...

So, as your current alias seems to say, the lenders (banks) were exploiting the borrowers?

Good to know.

And, if I may add, the link your current cites does not seem to one in its favor.

Jus' sayin'

@#48 ... Let me guess: you blame the borrowers. ...

Yeah, that current alias seems to overlook (intentionally?) the "unscrupulous lending" it cites.

So, it seems we have a new current alias here that contradicts itself in a single comment?

Well, that is humorous, at best.

I have other descriptions, but I suspect they might be greeted with ---- or ----- -- ----- or -----.

" As for my shoes - I buy US made bespoke shoes -------. "

So? I'm sure they suck compared to the shoes I got last time in Italy.

Remind me: are tariffs taxes? Who pays them? And isn't the result, at least short-term to mid-term, a higher consumer price?

" that current alias seems to overlook (intentionally?) the "unscrupulous lending"

It's called the loan application process, it's purposely opaque, the loaners have 100% discretion, and the loaners base approval solely on the belief they'll make a profit.

Because they stand to profit or lose, it's incumbent upon the loaners to assess the risk.

I put 95% of the blame on the folks who told the buyers they could afford it, minimized the payment spike possibilities, made money hand over fist, and didn't have to pay anything when the loans defaulted ... and 5% of the blame on the folks who thought they could afford more of a home than they could.

" loans to people that would not otherwise qualify - mainly non-white poor people."

Nonsense. It was McMansions that broke the system. Not the folks defaulting on the cheapest homes around.

JFC, it's like you're using Republican Math.

"Got evidence of that?"

If he shows any, I guarantee he'll omit the specific language prohibiting bad loans.

@#52 ... made money hand over fist, and didn't have to pay anything when the loans defaulted ...

... and likely got ownership in property because of those defaulted loans.

"" loans to people that would not otherwise qualify - mainly non-white poor people."
Nonsense. It was McMansions that broke the system. Not the folks defaulting on the cheapest homes around.
#53 | Posted by Danforth"

It was called the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and specifically forbid lenders from using all the traditional underwriting criteria because it was 'racist' - 'racist' things like income level, income verification, credit history and savings history.

The default rate was not among 'McMansions' - it was among the urban poor using sub-prime loans that they could not afford and the banks were not allowed to reject. Sub-prime delinquency rates were nearly 30%. Those were not buying McMansions in the suburbs - that was the urban poor buying their ---------.

" and specifically forbid lenders from ... "

... from MAKING BAD FAITH LOANS.

Which is EXACTLY what they did.

" Those were not buying McMansions in the suburbs - that was the urban poor buying their ---------."

Tell me you don't understand macro math without using those specific words.

You'd have to be a moron to believe the poorest 20% in the lowest priced houses caused the problem, and not the higher-priced houses purchased by the vast majority.

Are you still using Republican Math???

AI sez:

A housing collapse due to inner-city purchases is unlikely, as inner-city purchases do not typically cause widespread housing market collapses. Instead, the collapse of the housing market in 2008 was primarily due to factors like predatory lending, lax lending standards, and speculation, which led to a bubble in home prices. While inner-city areas may experience unique challenges related to housing affordability and market dynamics, they are not the primary drivers of a national housing crisis.

IOW, even AI believes you have no "I".

"#59 | Posted by Danforth"

Wrong again ------- - but at least you are trying to have actual facts this time rather than just lying like you normally do.

journals.sagepub.com

"First, during the peak of the subprime foreclosure crisis in late 2008, large central cities, on average, experienced higher levels of REO per mortgageable property than suburban areas."

Case closed - you are wrong.

" Case closed - you are wrong."

Thanks for admitting the math is over your head. FFS, even the statement you posted has a caveat.

It takes a real moron to ignore the wealthiest 80% while blaming the 20% on the bottom, and completely ignoring those who had 100% of the discrepancy when it came to APPROVING the loan.

But you're a raging racist, so your chosen ignorance doesn't surprise me.

US weekly jobless claims rise for second straight week

finance.yahoo.com

Way to go, stinky.

Looks like s^*%ts is using his "advanced degree" again.

Proctor & Gamble just announced they're shedding 7000 employees (with severance) ...

The number of job losses caused by Trump are piling up.

So much winning.

I'm sure he will blame Biden.

Right now we are at the peak of another housing bubble. Felon47 knows this and he wants to pop it so his buddies can buy up foreclosed properties in high priced markets on the cheap.

That is why you don't put a greed driven sociopath in charge of financial policy for the entire nation.

" ... unscrupulous lending to unqualified borrowers"
Let me guess: you blame the borrowers.

#48 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-06-05 01:54 AM

30 years ago when we were in the market for our house, we were approved for three times the loan we ended up taking. I knew what we could afford if one of us lost our job. I was also aware of what our monthly expenses would be and that we needed to set aside money for an emergency fund and a sinking fund to replace our cars and appliances. The pressure I got from the lender and realtor to exceed our limit was intense. We had to fire our realtor because she was constantly pushing homes that were above our limit.

We ended paying off our mortgage after 10 years and then turned to funding our retirement plans where we can retire and without social security and have a higher lifestyle than we have now, we created a cash fund equal to one year of our salary and put enough into a sinking fund for appliance and cars that we can pay cash when they need replacing. Two years ago I had to replace three cars and only took the financing on one because it was 0%.

Lenders pushed the subprime loans because they knew they could repackage them into mortgage backed securities and offload them to investors and relieve the bank of the risk.

Looks like s^*%ts is using his "advanced degree" again.

#63 | Posted by jpw at 2025-06-05 12:01 PM | Reply | Flag:

Looks like you have your face buried in a---------- again. Dummb @$$

"The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May and the jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.

The May jobs report showed the U.S. economy keeping pace despite uncertainty driven by President Trump's trade policy, largely matching the expectations of economists. The U.S. was projected to add roughly 125,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates"

"Wages grew by 0.4 percent to hit an average of $36.24 in May. Wage growth has been trending down in recent months, though it has been outpacing declining inflation"

thehill.com

"The housing bubble preceding the crisis was financed with mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which initially offered higher interest rates (i.e. better returns) than government securities, along with attractive risk ratings from rating agencies. Despite being highly rated, most of these financial instruments were made up of high-risk subprime mortgages." en.m.wikipedia.org

Borrowers couldn't have done any of that.

The financial houses created those financial instruments, not the borrowers.

#67 | Posted by lfthndthrds

1) I want Trump's promised "Golden Age"

2) I also want his promised end to the Ukraine War

3) Is there any reason the man should not be held to the standards that he's personally set?

trending down

#67 | Posted by lfthndthrds

This is the theme for the last couple months.

Job Growth? Wage Growth? Manufacturing? Value of the dollar? Exports?

Trending Down.

"though it has been outpacing declining inflation"

Keep the assists coming for that f%$#ing raetard who didn't even read the article included with the post though.

@#12 ... More like signs of stocking up before the schittt hits the fan. ...

Yup.

bipartisanpolicy.org

...
US Deficit for Feb 2025: $1.1 billion
US deficit for Mar 2025: $1.3 billion
US deficit for Apr 2025: $1.1 billion
...

Companies importing goods in March to stock up before the tariffs hit.

@#73 ... Companies importing goods in March to stock up before the tariffs hit. ...

How big trade deficit drop as tariffs hit imports is playing out inside U.S. supply chain and economy
www.cnbc.com

... The U.S. trade deficit fell by the largest amount on record in April as imports fell by over 16% after a surge in orders to beat President Trump's tariffs, but there's a worrying flip side for the consumer. As the trade war whipsaws global economic activity, supply chain data shows that the retail inventory crunch could be next and small business across the country are bearing the brunt of the pain. From freight orders to inventory and warehousing, the latest logistics data shows the inability of many importers to make business decisions related to inventory levels.

One closely watched data point is the widening gap between inventory levels and inventory costs. These metrics generally track together, according to the Logistics Managers' Index. In 2024, the average space between these metrics was 12.1 points. But in May 2025, the gap has expanded to 26.8 points, the third-highest in the history of the index, said Zachary Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management and Colorado State University Supply Chain Management Forum director.

When inventories are high and quickly expand, warehouses cost more. Traditionally, when warehouse inventories decrease, warehouse costs slow down as well. But because of the front-loading of products ahead of the tariffs in the January-March period, inventory is flat, with replenishment orders not coming in. But costs are still up because the inventory is being held longer. ...

Good grapic in that article, "The spread between inventory costs and inventory levels is the highest its been since the pandemic," which see...

@#71 ... "though it has been outpacing declining inflation" ...

Yup. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation. That's A Good Thing.

US Employment on Solid Footing Before Tariff Bite
mp.morningstar.com

... Key Takeaways

- - - US nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, modestly above the 126,000 estimate, but down from April's 147,000.

- - - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, matching April and reflecting a narrow range since May 2024.

- - - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% for the month and 3.9% yearoveryear, slightly above expectations.

- - - Fed futures now imply negligible odds of a June rate cut and have shifted the first expected cut to September (over 90% probability), reflecting a more resilient labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May 2025, slightly exceeding consensus expectations of 126,000 and marking a slowdown from April's revised gain of 147,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, highlighting the continued tightness in the labor market. Wage growth continued to outpace inflation, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% over the month, and 3.9% yearoveryear, slightly stronger than forecasts.

However, revisions trimmed prior months' gains: March's figure was lowered by 65,000 (from 185,000 to 120,000) and April's by 30,000 (from 177,000 to 147,000).

Together, those cuts reduce the prior two-month payroll tallies by 95,000 jobs.

After factoring in these adjustments, the three-month average has fallen to 135,000 and the 12-month average now sits at 124,000 -- the lowest 12-month average since early 2023. ...

Good chart in the article showing monthly job creation since January 2023.