China has been in a collapse that is speeding up for the last 3 years. Their real estate is done - and with it - city level finances which rely on cities doing continuous land sales to fund operations. They are graduating their largest class of college graduates ever (over 5M) and unemployment rate is already ~25% for recent college grads. FDI has come to a stop in China, which was their last resort. Their domestic market is not big enough to support their economy with a decoupled US and you see it in the collapse of their retail sales, F&B sales, real estate sales, auto sales, etc. China is sunk and there is literally nothing they can do to change it.

"As I have posted here more than a couple times here, the Chinese economy has issues."

You don't even understand simple topics - you should steer clear of trying to opine on the Chinese economy.

"And then there is China possibly devaluing the Yuan."

It is occurring already - but, it cannot save them when their domestic market is already suffering, inflation has already made living unaffordable, and their largest trading partner is effectively cutting them off from the US market. This is on top of the fact that so much Chinese debt is US dollar based - devaluing their currency will just cause chaos by having massive defaults in their private sector - which is the only thing keeping the country afloat at the moment.

"That seems to be an ace in the hole that China holds against the Trump tariffs.
#14 | Posted by LampLighter"

Devaluing the yuan to offset tariffs is CHINA PAYING THEM - not US consumers. So, go ahead and spin that -------.

"#17 | Posted by reinheitsgebot"

Seems someone is butthurt that Trump is ending child trafficking. You and your ------ buddies planning another protest march?

"OK, there are two points in that comment ...
The first, and the major one, is that US consumers pay the tariffs"

No, US consumers will not pay the tariffs. To the extent the foreign companies want to maintain any market share, they will absorb the tariffs into their pricing. To the extent they don't, people don't buy the products and purchase domestically produced instead. That is called substitution.

"And, secondly, yes, China devaluing the yuan may offset the effect of the tariffs, because a devalued yuan means cheaper prices for China goods.
So, your current trolling alias seems to admit that tactic on the part of China has some game.
#21 | Posted by LampLighter"

As already explained to you above, a massive devaluation (which will be needed) is not possible due to around 90% of Chinese external debt being USD denominated. A 40-60% current devaluation will make the loans impossible to service or pay back causing a wave of private sector bankruptcies. As I stated above, this topic is much too complex for you - so, your usual debate style of reposting the liberal talking points is even more useless than normal.

"Regarding the "oil and fuel" aspect your current alias raises, how much "oil and fuel" does China export to the US?
#25 | Posted by LampLighter"

None - but every product they product in China requires it. They import 11.1M barrels of oil every day and a 50% Yuan devaluation will double the price they are paying for it. A 50% Yuan devaluation would cost them $330M per day in higher oil prices alone which would be passed on to everything they produce whether for domestic consumption or export.

"#26 | Posted by LampLighter"

Let's check back on the rate of inflation 1 year from today and then assess. Just a month ago, Canadians were squawking how Trump's tariffs on Canada would raise the price of oil/gas in the US. Now, oil is $60/barrel. So much of the liberal nonsense thinking on economics is being debunked on a daily basis.

"But that seems to be China's decision to make, not your current alias' decision."

It would be the equivalent of cutting your wrists to get back at your former spouse that left you.

"As I have previously stated, (though somewhat differently) this trade war between China and the US could last for more than Pres Trump's apparent attention span ...
#28 | Posted by LampLighter"

It has been ongoing since 2016 and China has been the clear loser. They have already experienced a lost decade. Now, they are going to give Japan in the 1980's a run for their money.

"While I agree China is going through tough times, I do not agree that toughness is the result of trade wars."

Supply chains do not set up or shut down over night. It is a multi-year process and China's collapse started in 2016 with Trump's trade war. When covid came, it sped up the process as literally every country adopted a 'China + 1' strategy or left the Chinese market all together. Looking at the reported Chinese exports, they are already declining in 2023 - and this was after the disruptions from covid. Chinese exports had been growing between 10-20% annually and now the number is flat to negative.

This is also seen in FDI as no company is relocating manufacturing there any longer. In 2023, FDI fell by almost 80% compared to 2022. Without FDI, there are no jobs and unemployment skyrockets - exactly what we are seeing now.

Real estate is just a symptom of this. When the real economy struggled, the Chinese government loosened credit for residential construction on infrastructure construction. This resulted in the total overbuild of real estate and the infrastructure spending built ports (not needed), airports (not needed), HSR (not needed) and highways that were supposed to make trade easier at a time that trade volume was decreasing - and now the government has to pay to maintain them.

The economic collapse is best seen in retail sales, luxury goods sales, and international travel. The Chinese tourist has all but disappeared (which really hammers Europe).

"But ... how does that affect the exports the US seems to be so reliant upon?
#33 | Posted by LampLighter"

Because the Chinese economic 'miracle' was built on manufactured export products and that sector of their economy is dying. With the huge decreases in FDI, it would take years to rebuild it even if were possible to do so.

"Idiot. Total idiot. Nothing that idiot posts should be bothered with unless you're bored and just want sport. What an idiot.
#34 | Posted by YAV"

We imported $500B in cheap Chinese crap last year. With the 100% tariff, we should collect $500B in tariff income from China alone in 2025. I am 100% betting that will not happen as the tariff will be eaten by the Chinese manufacturers, im/ex middlemen, and substitution away from Chinese products. You seem to think it will happen - because, at the end of the day, you are a very stupid person. Stick to banging closeted married gay dudes and leave economics to the adults.

"So, where does that leave the US is Pres Trump's tariffs seem to actively encourage other countries to avoid the US?"

That is fine as long as the US reduces by the same amount or more. Given we run trade deficits with just about every other country, we win.

"Maybe something might happen that was aghast to envision in the past?
China, Japan and South Korean talking about trade?"

They already trade -------. China is both Japan and Korea's largest trading partner already. Didn't know that, did you?

"All because the US trade policies currently seem to be so whimsical."

There is nothing whimsical about them. So long as Trump is POTUS, other countries will reduce their trade barriers or they will be subject to punitive tariffs.

"It appears that they are negotiating other markets for their products."

Great - let them try. China is already their biggest trading partner in most cases. We will see how China responds to them trying to balance trade - my guess is that the result will be same as what they are trying to do with the US - ramp up barriers to retain high trade surpluses.

"So, Pres Trump's apparent ultimate goal of the US being self-sufficient in its consumption may be foisted upon the US sooner that Pres Trump has anticipated?
#38 | Posted by LampLighter "

We can only dream that this will be the case.

"#39 | Posted by shrimptacodan"

They only thing Democrats hate more than Trump are the statements from their own leaders from 10 years ago.

"He is now going after pharmaceuticals.
#43 | Posted by YAV"

Now the Dems are defending pharmaceutical companies. You could not have written better comedy.

"What are the Dems defending them from?
#48 | Posted by snoofy"

Apparently Trump - we are still waiting for the Dems to release talking points on how their liberal -------- should feel about RFK's proposed ban on their advertising on TV.