"... Why it matters: The central bank is leaving interest rates paused for now, but the ultimate judgment over whether inflation is temporary or lasting will shape their willingness to cut rates in the months ahead.
#1 | Posted by LampLighter "

Typical ------- Fed - is this inflation in the room with them now? I ask as it sure the ---- is not seen in the economic data. Thus far under Trump policies, inflation is running 1.6% annualized. We are already 20% below their target rate but they sit with their thumbs up their asses worried about inflation they claimed would be seen in March, then April, then May, then June --- and they are still waiting.

"You misspelled 3.05%.
#8 | Posted by jpw"

I will explain 1 time and 1 time only for you stupid -------- so pay attention.

What you are quoting is a Year-Over-Year change. The latest data is for May 2025 - the June data will not come out until July 15th.

So, when you use the number of 3.05% (which is the FORECAST), it is estimating the projected change in prices from July 2024 to July 2025. That includes the ridiculously high inflation under Biden for July 2025-Jan 2025 AND a FED forecast for which they have been repeated WRONG for June and July. THAT WAS NOT UNDER TRUMP AND DOES NOT REFLECT INFLATION TODAY.

To get what the rate of change is TODAY (or under Trump), we can take the data for most recent period and annualize it - in this case, we would use the data for the most recent Quarter: Mar'25, Apr'25, and May'25. Once the data for June is released, we can use April - June.

"That's an excellent observation."

No, it is a ------- STUPID OBSERVATION.

We have $36T in debt. That extra .5% - 1% in inflated interest rates costs US taxpayers $180B - $360B per year in interest fees paid for no reason. The Fed is guarding against inflation THAT DOES NOT EXIST - they do this to reward their banker friends because that is who matters to them.

"Pres Trump wants the interest rates to come down."

He wants to Fed to stop interfering based on their continually wrong assumptions about inflation. Europe has cut rates repeatedly while the Fed sits with its thumb up its ass. Worse, this is clearly political as the Fed cut rates under later term Biden when the inflation rates was 2x what we have now.

"But his policies cause the US to borrow more and more money."

EVERY POLITICIAN has those - and I didn't see you whining when Biden racked up $9T in debt in 4 years.

"As China and Japan may be selling US Treasuries."

They, collectively, hold ~5% of US government debt. The Fed itself holds 2x that amount itself. Japan and China selling to $0 would have ZERO impact on the US dollar.

"So, an ample supply of US debt, but less than an adequate demand to want to purchase that debt (bonds). What might be the result of that?"

Probably what we have had under Biden - the Fed simply buys it. The Fed had ~$2T on its balance sheet in 2019 - they bought more in the last 5 years than the entire holdings of Japan and China.

"Maybe, the US offering a higher guaranteed return for buying that debt?
a.k.a. higher interest rates?"

That 'marginal rate' for the current auction not only forces the US taxpayers to pay more - it inflates the price you pay on everything from cars, houses, and credit cards as those all index to the Fed rates. It is a COMPLETELY ARTIFICIAL RATE. Now, if you want to state the Fed is forbidden from buying and selling (Quantitative Easing goes away forever), I am fine with that. But, so long as the Fed is being politically motivated, their moves now are completely artificially and completely detached from Supply & Demand.

"With that in mind ... is Pres Trump, with his policies and laws passed, causing the very interest rates to rise that he says should be lower?"

The inflation rate RIGHT NOW is 1.6% for core and 0.8% for total inflation (due to energy prices decreases under Trump). Having a Fed Funds rate 3x the rate of current inflation when inflation is already 20% under their target is either incompetence or maliciously trying to destroy the US.

"Asked differently, and I'll be polite, does Pres Trump have modicum of a clue of how interest rates work?
#13 | Posted by LampLighter"

He does - you, on the other hand, clearly do not.

"#15 | Posted by LampLighter"

I clearly outlined for you how inflation is calculated and what number is relevant. Now, do you have a question or concern about the data or do you just want to whine about how I refer to you -------- when you state your typical ------- opinions?

"#17 | Posted by REDIAL"

The last person anyone should ask for economics advice is a ------- Canadian that just voted back into power the party that has delivered 0% GROWTH IN REAL GDP PER CAPITA IN 15 ------- YEARS. I mean, at some point even a crazy person will stop punching themselves in the balls - so, what does that say about Canadians?

"The European economies do not show the strength your current alias has boasted about the current US economy."

This is where the current economists running the Fed have their heads up their asses. Cutting rates DOES NOT SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. Yes, it makes borrowing cheaper - but no company actually makes a decision to build a new factory over a .25% - .5% interest rate difference. They do it based on their short and long term forecast for customer demand/consumer confidence. Now, it does work the opposite though - raising rates does slow an economy. It is like a rope - pulling on it to slow an economy works, pushing on it to spur and economy does not. This is why growth was ---- despite YEARS of quantitative easing - also you can look to Japan and its lost decades despite near 0 interest rates. ----, during 2008, rates went NEGATIVE in Germany.

"So, yeah, they need to lower interest rates to help their economy. And, fwiw, I do agree the the US economy is currently stronger than the EU economies."

It will have NO EFFECT on their ---- economies. They need to do 2 things:
1.) Lower energy prices
2.) De-regulate

"So, if I may ask, is the US economy strong under Pres Trump, or is it weak?"

It is STRONG - and growing WITHOUT INFLATION - which is what the Fed is supposed to be guarding against. That inflation DOES NOT EXIST.

Again, the reason to cut interest rates is not about spurring the economy, it is about fixing the deficit by stopping the Fed from keeping interest rates high to help their banker friend - and themselves given they hold $5T in treasuries. That .5% cut is worth $25B in profit to the Fed alone.

"If it is weak, well, then, yeah, let's lower interest rates to boost it."

See above.

"Why might Pres Trump want the Fed to lower interest rates?
#20 | Posted by lamplighter"

Trump has already told you - and I told you above - it is about the US government saving $180-$360B in annual interest payments on the debt - money which is paid for NO BENEFIT OF THE TAXPAYERS and would not even be required to be paid if the Fed stopped artificially manipulating the treasury market.

"@#23 ... Cutting rates DOES NOT SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. ...
It doesn't?"

No, it doesn't. At most, it is a weak correlation and shows no direct evidence of causation. As a personal example - say you want to buy a home but the interest rates are 7%. The next month, rates rates to 6.5% BUT - you receive a notice from you boss that you might be laid off. Are you buying because interest rates are lower - NO. People buy based on consumer confidence and that is not directly a causal relationship with interest rates. If it were, we would have had robust growth during QE 1, 2, 3, etc and Japan would not have had its lost decade. Further, Europe growth should be roaring now vs. stuck in ----. The whole 'cut rates to boost the economy' is one of the last widely-held false beliefs in finance and needs to ended. Just like 'stock buyback are a good thing' - they AREN'T.

"While the rate cuts may not result in an economic boom, they do seem to help the economy, making it less expensive to invest in and grow the economy."

They will help an already healthy economy because people were going to spend anyway - now, it just makes it a bit cheaper. It is the consumer confidence that matters and ACCESS TO CREDIT. The access to credit is also WAY MORE IMPORTANT than the rate itself. The house price run up from the early 2000's had NOTHING to do with the fed funds rate - it has everything to do with access to credit due to CMOs CDOs giving unqualified buyers money they otherwise would not have had regardless of the interest rate.

"Taking a different approach, why should the Fed lower interest rates?
#24 | Posted by LampLighter"

Because - as Trump and I have already told you - it is going to cost taxpayers an extra $180B - $360B this next 12 months because the Fed is going to sit with its thumb up its ass. $180B - $360B that otherwise would show up as deficit reduction.

Let me ask you this question - barring spending on interest itself - will Trump spend more or less in the next 2025 based on what the interest rate is?

The answer is NO CHANGE - he already is going to spend the money regardless of the interest rate. The only question is how much in extra interest are taxpayers going to be forced to pay because the Fed is artificially manipulating interest rates.

"So, Pres Trump's policies have increased the amount of money that the Federal government needs to borrow."

Yes - and this is probably a new concept for your smooth brain - NOT ALL SPENDING IS THE SAME. You have productive spending and you have non-productive spending. Letting people keep more of their money (especially the smart ones as judged by their net worth) actually helps the economy by doing LONG TERM INVESTMENT. Meanwhile, dumping untold billions into programs like the Department of Education or USAID is just wasted money. Same goes with spending money on weapons for Israel and Ukraine.

"And, there may be less interest by other countries in purchasing that debt.
That results in a rising of interest rates."

It would if rates were actually set by supply & demand - which they aren't.

"So I ask once again, but differently this time, do Pres Trump policies cause the interest rate rise he seems to rail against?
#26 | Posted by LampLighter"

No - his policies - thus far - have resulted in huge real wage gains and inflation 20% below the Fed's target. If you want to argue that his policies thus far has done something other than what I just stated - then you need to bring the receipts and actually link to it. As to the future impact - that is speculative but my bet is that the base economy growth surpasses any impact due to increase money supply to fund the deficit - AND - that lowering the Fed Funds rate will actually decrease any inflationary impact by lowering our debt servicing fee by $180B - $360B over the next 12 months.

Just to end this conversion with you -------- as I have proven, repeatedly, that the current rate of core inflation is 1.6% (20% below the Fed target), I will give you one posting on the BBB.

US Deficit/% of GDP:
2024: $1.833T / 6.4%
2025: $1.9T / 6.5%
2026: $2.065T / 7%* - inclusive of the BBB spending and tax cuts

Now, the 2026 numbers are based on the -------- CBO which continually underestimates the rate of economic growth from tax cuts as well as overestimates the rate of inflation.

However, with the 'BBB' - the deficit more of less stays flat to 2025 - this is probably something you smooth-brains were not told by the lying Democrats in the media.

However, if the Fed dropped rates by 1% (as repeatedly called for by Trump) - AND - assuming NO ECONOMIC UPSIDE AS A RESULT OF THE LOWERED RATES, the deficit would fall to $1.685T / 5.7% of GDP.

One would imagine even the ------- Democrats hellbent on destroying the country would cheer for deficit reduction (in real and % of GDP terms) - but what do we actually get? Just more -------- from them.

So - tell me honestly - how many of your -------- knew that the BBB paired with a 1% cut in interest rates would result in a deficit reduction of 11% vs. Joe Biden's 2025? Also, the 2025 is already artificially low due to Trump cancelling the ------- Biden spending on things like USAID.

"#30 | Posted by LampLighter"

JFC - HOW DUMB ARE YOU?

I already gave you all the link and calculations in my #12 you stupid ------- ----. You go back to ignore now.

"LOL so you're cherry picking data"

So - you believe the more reflect state of inflation TODAY is what occurred in July of 2024 rather than what has occurred in the last 90 days? Just sit in the corner and stuck on your thumb ------- - this economics stuff is beyond you.

"then using BS math that nobody but yourself believes or relies on while calling everyone else idiots?
#32 | Posted by jpw"

BS math? What part is BS? Is that you that you do not know how to calculate a compounded rate or that you don't know you to annualize a quarterly rate?

Maybe this is why you still have so much student loan debt - you still haven't figured out compounded interest.

"No, you laid out what a sycophantic dumbf(*& you are and how willing you are to create stats based off cherry picked data sets.
#34 | Posted by jpw"

So again - you don't think the rate inflation for the last 3 months is the relevant gauge of inflation? You think it is more relevant to include data points from July 2024 under the mismanagement of ------- Biden and pre-tariffs policy changes? Because unless you actually think that, I have no idea what point you are trying to make. And - if you do actually believe that - it is probably one of the many reasons that you have been a total and complete economic failure in this life.

"#35 | Posted by jpw"

Lol, your jealousy knows no bounds - kinda pathetic actually. That is why I could buy your services at an hourly rate equal to a McDonald's value meal - because you never learned a useful skill OR you learned it but applied it so incompetently that you are stuck at unskilled labor wages.

"#38 | Posted by ClownShack"

I am starting to think you -------- get a perverse sexual thrill from me kicking your asses daily - like how Danforth likes to invite guys over to his house to bang his wife while he watches from the corner. Is your daily ass kicking some form of humiliation ritual which gives you sexual gratification?

"You're either posting information you don't understand from grok, or posting personal attacks hoping to insult."

I use Grok to look up data - I am the one that forms the arguments. That is the difference between people like you and me. I use Grok to speed up research - you outsource your thinking to AI. That is why you have yet to make a single data-driven post in response to anything I ever posted. Without AI to think for you, you are left as a sputtering militant homosexual with nothing to post but raw emotions.

"I'm not sure when you first started the DR and what your original name was, but you couldn't hold a candle to the original band of trolls who posted here."

I am not trolling - I am trying to educate the dumbest of society: the -------.

"You're just angry and boring. Who cares.
#41 | Posted by ClownShack"

Yes, I can totally understand why my posts are boring for you. You are intellectually unequipped to respond. Getting beat like a rented mule on the daily must be truly exhausting for you. But do go on and prove me wrong - write a DATA DRIVEN response to anything that I have posted in this thread. You can't and you won't because you lack the intelligence to do so.

There are too many -------- to respond to individually so I will write a single collective response as you all basically say the same moronic thing: "just wait, inflation is coming because of the tariffs!"

The problem for you -------- is that you have been saying the same thing for the last 4 months - and yet - inflation is below the Fed's 2% target, which is much lower than any sustained number Biden put up even with the tariffs.

The reason this happens is that you -------- STILL DON'T UNDERSTAND TARIFFS. Tariffs drive substitution in product selection - hence, retailers cannot simply pass on the tariff cost to consumers.

The net effect - AS PROVEN BY THE INFLATION DATA - is that the US government collects tariffs (~20% effective currently at the ports) and prices don't increase as proven by the inflation data as the tariffs are eaten by suppliers and middlemen.

Also, I have focused on CORE inflation - but the reality for Trump is that we should focus in TOTAL inflation. I say this as Trump's economic policies are predicated on reducing energy prices - and the decreased energy input will lead to very low inflation or even price decreases. That is exactly what we see with the total inflation numbers - annualized rate of 0.8% (less than half of the Fed target).

Lastly, this is paired with kicking out the illegals for 2 added benefits:
1.) US Citizen Wages and US Citizen # of workers goes up
2.) We save BILLIONS on social services (medicaid, school, etc) by having the illegals deported

Thus for for point 1 - US native born employment is up 2M jobs since Trump took office AND we had the we had the highest REAL WAGE GROWTH in 60 years due to wages going up paired with low inflation.

We have yet to see the big savings from point 2 above because the deportation (forced and voluntary) haven't been reflected in reduced need for the services (we will see this in the 2026 budget resets). For instance, for K-12 public schools, we are likely to see a 10-15% drop in enrollment with the illegals being deported (includes illegal kids taking their anchor babies back to their home country).

Yes - I know this hurts liberal fee-fees because the economic plan is working exactly as it was designed and exactly as I told you it would - but your hurt fee-fees DOES NOT CHANGE REALITY.

"I have no doubt you'll blame Biden this time as well.
#58 | Posted by jpw"

You -------- are the absolutely worse - you are made at Trump FOR INFLATION THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED DESPITE YOUR PREDICTIONS and yet, you gave a complete pass to Biden for the ACTUAL worse inflation since at least the early 80s.

As I told you before, stick to washing beakers -------, this economic stuff is beyond you.

"You can't possibly believe a 30% tariff on goods from EU and Mexico will only create inflation once.
#56 | Posted by snoofy"

That is how math works -------.

The prices inflate a single time where they are captured in the inflation rate and then the rate stays close to zero translating into 'continuing high prices' but not part of the rate of inflation. Sort of like the difference between velocity and speed. However, in the case of Trump - not even that happened as there was no meaningful inflation at all and the effective rate at our ports is already ~20%.

"Scotts, you're obviously a smart guy. There is no way to have a real, meaningful exchange with gaslighter. He's incapable.
#43 | Posted by visitor"

You are 100% correct with this post. He is back on my ignore list. Somehow, he is incapable of actually absorbing any new information - that, paired with never acknowledging that he was wrong even after being presented the actual data - makes it a fruitless debate.

"Trump has created uncertainty in the market which has in turn reduced consumer confidence and led to large reduction in discretionary spending."

Inflation adjusted discretionary spending is just fine - the 'dip' in consumer confidence is largely driven by media narrative (spike in inflation and mass layoffs) that never came to pass and now US citizens are basically tuning out their continual fake news. The ACTUAL DATA tells the truth - REAL WAGES growing at the fastest rate in 60 years. Core inflation at 1.6% (20% below the Fed target). Total Inflation at 0.8% (almost unheard of in modern times). 2M+ native workers back working and being productive again.

"In addition your tourism industry has died off despite the dollar falling 10%."

Less foreign trash - American are traveling just fine and benefiting from the very low gas prices (thanks Trump!). The less Euro-trash and Canadians clogging up our roads, the better.

"This despite the reality most of "Liberty Day" tariffs have been delayed and the market now views him as a blowhard that lacks the balls to follow through."

Effective tariffs at our ports for the last several months has been ~20%. This occurred with the total lack of inflation and massive jobs losses that you ------- liberals had been predicting. The only ones quoting the TACO nonsense are the liberals trying to get any small win that they can - the reality is that they just demonstrate how they do not understand how to negotiate. Probably explains why liberals are economic losers.

"Killing demand and creating stagflation will help tamper inflation but it will lead to mass unemployment in the long run.
#62 | Posted by Scotty"

Highest real wage growth in the last 60 years and inflation at 1.6% (core) and 0.8% (total) show you to be a lying -------.

Maybe you should focus on your problems up in Canada because we don't have your problems here.

"Inflation is rising by standard measures applied across all administrations to give historical context and valid comparisons."

No, it is NOT. We have the numbers straight from the BLS. For the last quarter, core inflation has been 1.6% based on the Unit Pricing model of the BLS - that is real, historical data. Taking data points from 12 months ago under ------- Biden and holding them up like they are relevant now is peak stupidity.

"What a joke that you think you can simply cherry pick months/time frames and call everyone else an idiot for laughing at you.
#68 | Posted by jpw"

So, taking THE ACTUAL HISTORICAL DATA UNDER TRUMP FOR THE LAST QUARTER is cherry picking? Lie harder -------.

"#72 | Posted by LampLighter"

I already did ------- - #12. This is the 2nd time I told you to read it and apparently you are too ------- stupid to actually do it.

"#74 | Posted by REDIAL"

As Canada descends into 3rd world status - do you now qualify for the 'one laptop per child' program?

"Really?
Back then I did not see any manner of a link to the data to substantiate what your current alias posts.
#78 | Posted by LampLighter"

Your dumb ass is unable to find the link clearly labeled BLS? I even posted it twice in the same posting.

Well, never mind, if you can't figure out how to click a link after you have been directed to it, the chances you will understand the materials in the link are ZERO. So, no point in your clicking it now. Go back to sitting in the corner with your thumb up your ass.

"I had missed it in the cherry-picking your current alias seems to do with data."

Hey, aren't you the same ------- whining about the ad hominem above?

"If your current alias is tending towards cherry-picking, well, yeah, that may be one way to calculate inflation."

You tell me - what is more relevant to TODAY'S RATE OF INFLATION - the data from the prior quarter or the data from July of 2024? If you say July of 2024, you are a ------- beyond my ability to educate.

"But I do have to ask, why is your current alias seeming to have a need to jump through hoops to justify mediocre inflation numbers."

No hoops are required. The relevant question is: What is the rate of inflation under Trump and HIS economic policies? To answer this question, we should select a time period that covers HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES - not ------- Biden's high-inflation policies. Hence, using a starting point for the chained inflation that pre-dated Trump is retarded. If I had select a single month or even 2 months, you could argue about cherry-picking. However, a FULL ------- QUARTER of historical data is not cherry picking - it is the accurate representation of the rate of inflation today.

"And the last CPI report seemed to show a slight increase in inflation. But ,imo, not a significant one."

Again, you don't know what you are talking about. Go back to the link I provide for you. The inflation for the last month (May 2025 as June will not be released until July 15th) was 0.1%. A 0.1% annualized = 1.268% for the CURRENT RATE OF MONTHLY INFLATION. This is a DECREASE from the inflation over the entire quarter which was 1.6%.

Here is the actual data: (Month, % Change during that month)
Jun24: 0.1%
Jul24: 0.2%
Aug24: 0.3%
Sep24: 0.3%
Oct24: 0.3%
Nov24: 0.3%
Dec24: 0.2%
Jan25: 0.4%
Feb25: 0.2%
Mar25: 0.1%
Apr25: 0.2%
May25: 0.1%

As you can see, there was massive inflation under Biden. Hence, stating the 'current inflation is 2.8%' based on the YoY change is RETARDED.

"So, why should the Fed decrease rates now? And by the 3 percentage points that Pres Trump is asserting?
#81 | Posted by LampLighter"

I would state - there is zero reason why the US interest rate is higher than the Euro Zone interest rate, which is ~2%, hence, we should be able to cut rates by ~2.5% to keep parity. That would save the US ~$900B annually once the US debt has been fully turned over vs. fully turning over the debt at the current fed funds rate.

"The tariffs created higher prices/inflation on the prices for the vast majority of products sold in America.
#83 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY"

Is that why the rate of inflation over the last quarter for core inflation is 1.6% and 0.8% for total inflation? Do you want to make an actual data driven argument or simply continue to throw out retarded generalities not supported by the data released by the BLS?

After all, the best proxy for 'the vast majority of products sold in America' would be CPI, would it not? And that says you are full of ----.

"#86 | Posted by LampLighter"

Let's recap:
1.) you claimed that inflation was rising in the most recent 'report' - that was a lie. From April to May, the monthly rate of inflation slowed from a 0.2% increase to a 0.1% increase.

Do you fully acknowledge that you statement was not true?

2.) You stated "I see a 0.2% increase in the numbers your current alias cites for April 2025, not much less than the "massive increase" of 0.3% your current alias notes about the Biden era."

So, a number 33% smaller is 'not much less'? By what metric? Also, I see that you avoided mentioning the May'25 number - as then the 0.3% numbers posted under Biden are 3x higher than the current month under Trump.. For the math, a 0.3% monthly rate translates into a 3.65% annual rate - again, SKY ------- HIGH.

"What are Pres Trump's justifications for a 3% rate cut?"

Already explained to you above -------. If you want to keep arguing that US taxpayers should continue paying hundred of billions of dollars in excess interest payments - please explain why you support that.

"And as a parallel question, why should Chmn Powell be fired?
#86 | Posted by LampLighter"

Should be fired for Gross Incompetence. That extra 2.5% in excess interest he is maintaining will cost every US taxpaying household ~$11,400/year once the full debt turns over.

"More likely, the rate of recent inflation is due more to companies front-loading their inventories before the higher tariffs took effect."

So, how many more months will this magic front-loading impact last before you just admit that you are ------- stupid? In the August report? Or does this front loading extend into 2026? You sound like a global warming loon with the continual 'just you wait!' --------.

"My guess is that the answer will not become known soon.
#88 | Posted by LampLighter"

The answer is already known - your ability to admit the answer is unknown and I am banking on the answer being NEVER.

"@#89 ... you claimed that inflation was rising in the most recent 'report' ...
Did I say those words?
#91 | Posted by LampLighter"

Here is your quote: "And the last CPI report seemed to show a slight increase in inflation" - your post #81.

Yes, YOU SAID THOSE WORDS -------.

Now, if you want to continue, take ownership and admit that what you posted was a either just an innocent mistake and was wrong or an intentional lie.

After that, we can move on to the rest of your post.

#91 | Posted by LampLighter "

"#94 | Posted by LampLighter"

Okay - once again - you have proven yourself incapable of taking accountability for your words and as such are incapable of having an adult conversation.

So, Go ---- Yourself.