TWINPAC
I think the Iranians know enough about him now to know that even though he may withdraw, it won't be shamefaced and defeated. THEY will have to be the ones to attribute such attributes to his withdrawal/defeat. Some in the American media will amplify their claims as shipping through the strait returns to normal.
Some of the biggest losers in this will be the oil producers in the Middle East; the Saudi's especially. With Iran and Oman collecting tolls, Middle Eastern oil will become more expensive; especially compared to the Venezuelan oil expected to come online in a few years. Also, the frailty of the Middle Eastern oil supply is going to give a nudge to renewables and encourage the development of alternate sources. Either way, the world is done with dealing with the uncertainly of the oil supply emanating out of the Middle East.
prior to Russia launching an attack to take back Eastern Europe.
I don't believe Russia has the resources to take back Eastern Europe. If the reports are true, the war with Ukraine has seriously degraded their military assets. Degraded assets wouldn't necessarily stop them from trying but success is far from assured. On the other hand, I don't have a sense of just how far the Europeans would push given that Russia has nukes. They just may be content to play defense.