Erin Rapidly Intensifies to Category 5 Hurricane

Current spaghetti maps ...

@#7

I remember when Hurricane Sandy was approaching the NYC area.

While most of the models had the storm continuing north then out to sea, one model showed the storm taking a sharp right turn and going inland over New Jersey.

That one model was the correct one, the then not well-known European model.

Since then, the European model has grown to be one of the more respected models.

Hurricane Sandy - Forecasts
en.wikipedia.org

... On October 23, 2012, the path of Hurricane Sandy was correctly predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) headquartered in Reading, England nearly eight days in advance of its striking the American East Coast.

The computer model noted that the storm would turn west towards land and strike the New York/New Jersey region on October 29, rather than turn east and head out to the open Atlantic as most hurricanes in this position do.

By October 27, four days after the ECMWF made its prediction, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center confirmed the path of the hurricane predicted by the European model.

The National Weather Service was criticized for not employing its higher-resolution forecast models the way that its European counterpart did. A hardware and software upgrade completed at the end of 2013 enabled the weather service to make predictions more accurate and farther in advance than the technology in 2012 had allowed.[35] ...

@#10

thx.

I had been looking, without success, for that one.

Yeah, imo, worth a repeat ...

This does not bode well.

Such a rapid intensification is ominous.

How do hurricanes intensify?

The suck up energy from the water below them.

Such a rapid intensification indicates that Erin has sucked up a lot of energy from the waters below it.

Why was that energy available?

Because the water below Erin was warmer than the norm.

And that warm water transferred its energy into the storm.

@#18 ... In American, please! LOL ...

30° C = 86° F

Multiply temp in C by 1.8, then add 32 to get Fahrenheit.

I learned that in grade school.

So, 30° C x 1.8 = 54.0

Now add 32 ...

54.0 + 32 = 86.0° F.

@#20

So an ocean temp of 86?

That's almost like warm bath.

No wonder Erin seems to be so happy.

@#22 ... A little easier without a calculator .. ...

Whatever floats yer boat. :)

Same answer is attained.

Thanks for that alternative approach.

OK, math aside ...

Erin is looking like one bad ass hurricane.

It is so fortunate that it currently looks to be affecting only the fishes (as the local TV meteorologists phrase it), and not any land masses.

Hopefully, the models are correct in that.