In the Trump era, here's the rule: Elections in which Trump is on the ballot, the GOP does fine. In elections in which he is not, the GOP does poorly.

This isn't just about incumbent disadvantage in midterm elections. Even during former President Joe Biden's presidency, when Trump was the head of the GOP, its most recent nominee, and its next nominee, Democrats historically performed well. For instance, in 2022, they gained trifectas in four states, taking control of the legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota, and winning the governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts " all while their party controlled the White House.