China in Africa is, imo, something worth watching....
... Despite its large population, Africa is a small global player. Its combined economy is less than 3% of the world economy, and Africa's political heterogeneity makes it difficult to stand united on contentious issues such as China's claim over Taiwan or the war in Ukraine.
Although most African countries aren't part of global value chains, external economic challenges and tensions affect them deeply. Africa's most violent period since independence was in the years before the Berlin Wall collapse in 1989. At the time, tensions between the United States (US) and former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) led to intense proxy wars in the Horn of Africa and Angola.
Based on that experience, a new era of competition between the US and China doesn't augur well for the continent.
At its peak, the USSR's economy was only half that of the US, whereas the US and China will be roughly equivalent in the next decade. China is already larger when using purchasing power parity. By 2050, the Chinese economy will be almost 30% bigger.
China is the world's factory, manufacturing cheaper and more than anyone else. It has flooded the world with affordable solar and wind products to fuel the green transition. China is the global trade destination for many and it builds much of Africa's infrastructure.
China and surrounding Asian countries are emerging as the most important source of economic growth globally. According to an in-depth study by The Economist in May 2022, No other country comes near the breadth and depth of China's engagement in Africa.' In contrast, US trade and investment with Africa is declining. If the US wants to maintain its influence on the continent, it should find ways to collaborate rather than compete with China.
The US should use AGOA to boost Africa's exports, not to achieve political objectives
The bill proposed in April by a bipartisan group of senators to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another 16 years shows that influential US groups are willing to engage with Africa for the long haul. With its low levels of trade reciprocity, the AGOA trade model is well suited to Africa's needs. The US should use AGOA as a carrot to boost Africa's exports, not a stick for economic coercion to achieve political objectives.
The rise of China in a crowded world means the future will be quite different to previous periods of competition and cohabitation. Many of Africa's ruling elites cast longing eyes towards China's autocratic development model as a means to reduce poverty. ...
