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The reading comes after a large surge in imports ahead of President Trump's tariff whipsaw caused GDP to contract by 0.5% in the first quarter. The BEA noted that the second quarter bounce back reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.
But in recent months, economic data has largely been better-than-feared, and recession concerns have eased. The probability investors were putting on a US recession in 2025, as tracked by popular online betting platform Polymarket, was just 17%, down from a peak of 66% on May 1.