@#5 ... I'm sure there is some cherry-picked stat that can disprove this. ...
I've not seen or heard any yet.
Indeed, this report is starting to look like it shows, and I am trying to choose my words carefully here, a minor indication of a possible stagnation going forward.
That is, lower growth while unemployment increases. If that happens, and I am not saying or implying it will, then the Fed is in a quandary. How does the Fed then balance its dual mandate?
But, my guess , at this point, is that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has diminished. From my prior 60% expectation to about 30 or 40%.
Tomorrow, 8:30AM, is another economic number to be released.
And before the next Fed meeting, there is a plethora of economic data to be released. So, this seems to be more of a ~stay tuned~ than anything else ...
