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... U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods like household furniture and recreation products, supporting views that price pressures would pick up in the second half of the year and delay the Federal Reserve from resuming cutting interest rates until at least October.

The report from the Commerce Department on Thursday showed goods prices last month posting their biggest gain since January, with also solid rises in the costs of clothing and footwear. ...

Prices for furnishings and durable household equipment jumped 1.3%, the biggest gain since March 2022, after increasing 0.6% in May. Recreational goods and vehicles prices shot up 0.9%, the most since February 2024, after being unchanged in May. Prices for clothing and footwear rose 0.4%.

Outside the tariff-sensitive goods, prices for gasoline and other energy products rebounded 0.9% after falling for four consecutive months. Services prices rose 0.2% for a fourth straight month. In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index advanced 2.6% after increasing 2.4% in May. ...

@#6 ... As long as TACO keeps kicking the tariff can down the road, ...

As Pres Trump did today with Mexico?

@#5 ... I'm sure there is some cherry-picked stat that can disprove this. ...

I've not seen or heard any yet.

Indeed, this report is starting to look like it shows, and I am trying to choose my words carefully here, a minor indication of a possible stagnation going forward.

That is, lower growth while unemployment increases. If that happens, and I am not saying or implying it will, then the Fed is in a quandary. How does the Fed then balance its dual mandate?

But, my guess , at this point, is that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has diminished. From my prior 60% expectation to about 30 or 40%.

Tomorrow, 8:30AM, is another economic number to be released.

And before the next Fed meeting, there is a plethora of economic data to be released. So, this seems to be more of a ~stay tuned~ than anything else ...

@#11 ... In May, 2025, we started imputing 35%! ...

Interesting theory.

What's yer got to substantiate it?