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Tuesday, February 20, 2024
If you'd asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump. Not an overwhelming favorite, mind you. But perhaps a 65:35 favorite. The case for Biden seemed obvious enough. Incumbents win re-election more often than not " and, of course, Biden beat Trump in 2020. The economy was beginning to recover from a period of intense inflation, and the labor market was strong. Trump had to fade a number of downside risks, being subject to a series of criminal trials and what looked like it could be a competitive Republican primary. (This was before Ron DeSantis began his long and embarrassing decline in the polls). Democrats were coming off a relatively strong midterm, buoyed by voter concerns about extreme and under-qualified Republican candidates and the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. |
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