The stock market is not the economy. Neither is the bond market, but the bond market has better predictive power than the stock market. Here on earth, the S&P 500 is down approx 0.50% YTD, while the Bros are taking it, with TSLA down more than 30% since Inauguration Day, and Bitcoin down more than 20%--both a terrific pounding in a six week period.

More concerning is that the US Treasury yield curve is again inverted, from the three-month T-bill to the 15-yr bond. While the YC is not entirely accurate in predicting a recession, it is a precursor for such, and that the curve inverted so quickly in the past month suggests that many investor are concerned about the US Economy, in a way they were not shortly after the inauguration. What investors and businesses detest the most is uncertainty, and there is a truck load of uncertainty in the economy and the capital markets right now. What could be the result? Less business investment, less hiring, less business travel, less international trade, less purchasing by the US consumer. Take those factors, add in tariffs, and one gets stagflation. For those of us alive in the 1970's, we know it was bad. Very bad. And the busload of clowns now serving in the court of El Rey Dotardo II have no capability to turn their bus around. Hang on, readers...